April 12 Mariners at Texas

Question

I stayed on the porch for Game 3 of this series, good thing, because it's unlikely I would have been holding a Mariners ML ticket. The under had some appeal, but it was tough for me to take a bite.

I came in here today, thinking "over", Vargas on the mound in this ballpark. With the Rangers offense being limited to 3 runs in the past two games. But a funny thing happened on the stat pages. Vargas has been better vs the Rangers in Arlington than he has been at Safeco, a ball park that favors lefty pitchers.

It's a small sample size though, 7 total starts since Vargas became solidified in the Mariners rotation in 2010. I will be looking for reasons to stay away from an "over" play in the series finale.

3825 · Answer

I stayed on the porch for Game 3 of this series, good thing, because it's unlikely I would have been holding a Mariners ML ticket. The under had some appeal, but it was tough for me to take a bite.

I came in here today, thinking "over", Vargas on the mound in this ballpark. With the Rangers offense being limited to 3 runs in the past two games. But a funny thing happened on the stat pages. Vargas has been better vs the Rangers in Arlington than he has been at Safeco, a ball park that favors lefty pitchers.

It's a small sample size though, 7 total starts since Vargas became solidified in the Mariners rotation in 2010. I will be looking for reasons to stay away from an "over" play in the series finale.

3825 · Answer

Mariners LineupCF  Figgins3B  LiddiRF  Ichiro1B  SmoakDH  Montero2B  SeagerC    OlivoLF  WellsSS  Ryan

Maydaymalone · Answer

Rangers1. Ian Kinsler (R) 2B2. Michael Young (R) DH3. Josh Hamilton (L) LF4. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B5. Nelson Cruz (R) RF6. Mike Napoli (R) 1B7. Yorvit Torrealba (R) C8. Alberto Gonzalez (R) SS9. Craig Gentry (R) CF

Retburj13 · Answer

enjoy ur seattle insight mangl

3825 · Answer

One note of caution before backing an "over" . . . Doug Eddings is the scheduled home plate umpire today, he has one of the highest strike rates along with a corresponding overall record that favors the under.

That may explain part of the pricing we are seeing on the 9.5 total.

Maydaymalone · Answer

Figgins and Smoak have good numbers vs Holland and Naps, Torrey, Young and Kinsler have excellent numbers vs Vargas

Holland can issue some walks and get some base runners for Seattle and the timely hitting you spoke of yesterday can come through today

Last night gave the M's confidence and I think they will be able to put up at least 4 runs here and Texas will do the rest..

I can see a 9-5 type game here with the lineups

ManassaMauler · Answer

3825

JFen31 · Answer

First time the M&#x27;s are seeing a lefty this year, right? Eddings behind the plate is huge. Holland can get a bit erratic so having that large zone is obviously a big plus for the under. It also doesn&#x27;t seem like the ball is carrying well in Arlington, presumably because the humidity is (relatively) low.

UKCrunch · Answer

Doug Eddings is all about the Unders. Check the article and stats posted here on Covers a month or so ago.https://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=269206

3825 · Answer

Holland was clearly the better pitcher last season when you compare him to Vargas, but a closer look at Holland reveals some suspect metrics at Rangers Ballpark . . .opponents hit almost 300, and his OPS is 125 points higher at home than on the road. His teammates plated nearly 10 runs per 9 innings pitched, so perhaps you can explain some that by stating that he pitched with huge leads. Nonetheless, he certainly doesn't dominate in this ballpark.

3825 · Answer

I had the Mariners penciled in to win one of these four games, I have a tough time getting my head around backing them to split the series, even though the past two games have shown that the Mariners can hang with these guys IF most every thing goes according to plan.

The combo of Vargas, Figgins in CF, and the bullpen has me shying away from a ML play today.

SportsFreak69 · Answer

Best of Luck

3825 · Answer

I&#x27;m going to take on Doug Eddings1.0 Unites Over 9.0 at &#x2B;100Season:        2-1  &#x2B;0.88Avg Price:     -108

3825 · Answer

should have waited,  over is now &#x2B;105

April 12 Mariners at Texas

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