Matt Moore = 0 runs in 12 career innings pitched (both starts at the end of last year were on the road at NY and Texas)
Rick Porcello = 3 hits allowed in 24 at bats vs. likely Rays starters for today (.130 BA)
Both teams are off of a high scoring weekend, maybe this pitching matchup with the early start time cools everybody off. Under 4 or maybe 4.5? is worth a look to me.
YTD: 4-5-2, -42.41
Dodgers -215 (Correia / Kershaw)
You aren’t smoking Acapulco
Gold if you see any value in Pirates/Correia today. More like some of the loco
weed that can be found in the desert around here, usually with a heavy dose of coyote
piss on it. Kershaw lasted only 3 innings in his first start but that was
because of the flu, he did not get knocked out. Quite the contrary, he gave up
only 2 hits, no earned runs and struck out 3, with the flu. I think we can
assume he is same Kershaw we saw last year, and the Pirates are no match for
that. I suppose some will get excited about the weekend series versus the
Phillies, but that was more about the Phillies than the Pirates. The Phillies
can’t hit a bull in the ass with a banjo and the Pirates scraped by with little
offensive production. In fact, that may be the most telling thing about this
game. Versus Lee, the only lefty starter they saw, they managed only 1 earned
run in 6 innings for an offensive era of 1.5 per 9. In my program the average
offensive rating is 32, but for that effort the Pirates scored only a 14.6 and
they were under league average to begin the season anyway at 31.7. By contrast,
the Dodgers offensive rating versus righty to start the season was 30.5 and
they scored a 34.3 and 42.9 versus Volquez and Moseley, respectively. Those
guys rank a little better than Correia, in spite of the astounding start he and
the Pirates got off to last year. He is no All Star and should revert to being
Kevin Correia this year. No more smoke and mirrors for this guy. The clincher
for me may be that the total of 3.5 is drawing very heavy juice to the over,
-125 at most houses, and I really don’t think totals bettors expect the Pirates
to help get it there, not versus Kershaw, so if they think it goes over 3.5
they must be counting on the Dodgers to get it there.
BOL
All plays are a flat 100 units. Lines are current at 5 Dimes as I post
Cubs -103 (Narveson / Maholm)
OK, I gave you a totally public play with the Dodgers, so here is a totally ant-public play. I don’t care about balancing that since either the public or pros can be either right or wrong on any given play. What I care about is how my numbers stack up versus the quoted odds, and in this case they say the Cubs stand a 60% probability of being ahead by one or more at the end of 5 innings. At -103 I only need a probability of 50.7% to break even, so there you go. Narveson/Maholm is almost a tossup, but I have really decent ratings on the is group of Cubs versus average left handed pitching and they really popped the ball versus Gonzalez their first opportunity versus a lefty this year. Some of the old timers here can tell you I come up with at least one team a year that is undervalued versus lefty because their overall W-L and stats disguise how well they do in that category. Overall stats contain 75% information versus righties. I do things differently to find these things. One year it was the Royals, another year the Marlins, always a team with a poor record overall but outstanding results versus lefty. Could be the Cubs this year.
BOL
All plays are a flat 100 units. Lines are current at 5 Dimes as I post
YTD: 4-5-2, -42.41
Dodgers -215 (Correia / Kershaw)
You aren’t smoking Acapulco
Gold if you see any value in Pirates/Correia today. More like some of the loco
weed that can be found in the desert around here, usually with a heavy dose of coyote
piss on it. Kershaw lasted only 3 innings in his first start but that was
because of the flu, he did not get knocked out. Quite the contrary, he gave up
only 2 hits, no earned runs and struck out 3, with the flu. I think we can
assume he is same Kershaw we saw last year, and the Pirates are no match for
that. I suppose some will get excited about the weekend series versus the
Phillies, but that was more about the Phillies than the Pirates. The Phillies
can’t hit a bull in the ass with a banjo and the Pirates scraped by with little
offensive production. In fact, that may be the most telling thing about this
game. Versus Lee, the only lefty starter they saw, they managed only 1 earned
run in 6 innings for an offensive era of 1.5 per 9. In my program the average
offensive rating is 32, but for that effort the Pirates scored only a 14.6 and
they were under league average to begin the season anyway at 31.7. By contrast,
the Dodgers offensive rating versus righty to start the season was 30.5 and
they scored a 34.3 and 42.9 versus Volquez and Moseley, respectively. Those
guys rank a little better than Correia, in spite of the astounding start he and
the Pirates got off to last year. He is no All Star and should revert to being
Kevin Correia this year. No more smoke and mirrors for this guy. The clincher
for me may be that the total of 3.5 is drawing very heavy juice to the over,
-125 at most houses, and I really don’t think totals bettors expect the Pirates
to help get it there, not versus Kershaw, so if they think it goes over 3.5
they must be counting on the Dodgers to get it there.
BOL
All plays are a flat 100 units. Lines are current at 5 Dimes as I post
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
