April 9 Mariners at Texas

I chose wisely and backed Felix instead of the under on Saturday at similar prices, but still had to hang on at the end, in spite of Felix getting spotted a 7-0 lead in the middle innings.

Anyone that has read my stuff before, knows that I would be very hard pressed to ever back a MLB team at -200 or worse in a typical MLB game.  In general, Teams just don't win often enough to justify those prices.  There are just too many unpredictable factors that can change the outcome of a game.  That being said, I don't automatically sign up for the under dog.  In reality, I think the prices are somewhat fair today when it comes to the sides.

Moving forward, I will focus on the Texas RL options, Mariners ML, or one of the totals.  Darvish is a tough read, he has certainly proven himself in Japan, and he has gotten progressively better during his time in the states.  But this is now the MLB regular season, and nearly every player on the Mariners roster has more MLB experience than he has.

The main hang up will be on how I read the Mariners offense, I think they fit somewhere in between what we saw in Japan and what we saw in Oakland,  they wont be as bad as 2009 and 2010, and will be very capable of beating top notch pitchers, it's the "when" part of that equation that will be tough to predict.

The team totals are itriguing tonight, I can make a case for backing the Mariners Under 3.5 or the Rangers Over 5.0.  I prefer the latter at first glance.

i am not sold on the Mariners Bullpen at all, especially the lower ed guys, I'm confident in League and Wilhelmsen, and I'm guessing Wedge has similar thoughts.  Thus I'm very leary of a back door cover by the Rangers on either RL.  I just dont want to be holding a Texas RL or Alt RL ticket and see Iwakuma out there on the mound in the 7th or 8th inning.  In addition, the Mariners staff is all messed up when it comes to getting regualr pitching time in  games.  Sherrill hasnt pitched since Tokyo, Iwakuma was horrible in the spring and hasnt pitched since.  Eraso Ramirez could be the best of the Mariners young pitchers, but when's the last time he pitched, etc etc etc.

These reasons aslo help lead me to the Ranger Team Total has a good play tonight.  I can see a 3-2 game quickly becoming 6-2 or 7-2 in the late innings. 

I'm sticking with the Ranger Team Total tonight, I'm choosing to protect the "5" and not take the cheaper price of 5.5

1.08 Units on Texas Total Over 5.0 at -115

Season:  1-0 +0.92 units

Average Price:   -117

i feel the best path to the window is backing texas to get 5+ runs in this game.  I think the mariners are vulnerable with their starters having an odd schedule and their pen being a bit weaker than expected at this point.

historically, the mariners have been very poor against quality pitchers they are seeing for the first time.  whether it  be advance scouting or whatever, i dont know why, but it appears to have been a problem for several seasons

reduced juice for totals and RL only at 5dimes.  Apparently, overnight ML have reduced juice, but those go off the board around 8am.  I'm paying full 10 cent prices for team totals.