Well, HoustonSports was right about his under. If that park tipped us off at all yesterday it did not look to me like the ball carried at all. We have to study it a little more of course, but if it is going to be a dead ball under park, best we know as soon as possible. As for myself, well I blew it and will have start down 100. Congrats to Cardinals backers, nice start.
Long season, very early, get them up here when you are ready.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Well, HoustonSports was right about his under. If that park tipped us off at all yesterday it did not look to me like the ball carried at all. We have to study it a little more of course, but if it is going to be a dead ball under park, best we know as soon as possible. As for myself, well I blew it and will have start down 100. Congrats to Cardinals backers, nice start.
Long season, very early, get them up here when you are ready.
Tough first inning yesterday Key. Tough for me to bet on games this early, new players, etc. I will look forward to your 5 inning thread every day and will contribute when I have good info. I usually abstain from betting the first month, until I have a good baseline. Thaty is not saying that you can't sway me though. Good luck today, looking forward to your pick!
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Tough first inning yesterday Key. Tough for me to bet on games this early, new players, etc. I will look forward to your 5 inning thread every day and will contribute when I have good info. I usually abstain from betting the first month, until I have a good baseline. Thaty is not saying that you can't sway me though. Good luck today, looking forward to your pick!
Phillies vs Pirates - Last year Bedard 1-4 in April with a 5.96 ERA. He gave up 5 runs in the first 5 in his first start, then 6 runs in 4 innings in his second start. Halladay did not allow a run in the first 3 games he pitched last year in the first 5 innings. Pittsburgh has only scored 5 runs in 38 innings against Halladay. Last year, they scored 2 in 14 innings, both of them coming in the first inning at home. My question is, is it worth laying the -170 on Philly?
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Phillies vs Pirates - Last year Bedard 1-4 in April with a 5.96 ERA. He gave up 5 runs in the first 5 in his first start, then 6 runs in 4 innings in his second start. Halladay did not allow a run in the first 3 games he pitched last year in the first 5 innings. Pittsburgh has only scored 5 runs in 38 innings against Halladay. Last year, they scored 2 in 14 innings, both of them coming in the first inning at home. My question is, is it worth laying the -170 on Philly?
Phillies vs Pirates - Last year Bedard 1-4 in April with a 5.96 ERA. He gave up 5 runs in the first 5 in his first start, then 6 runs in 4 innings in his second start. Halladay did not allow a run in the first 3 games he pitched last year in the first 5 innings. Pittsburgh has only scored 5 runs in 38 innings against Halladay. Last year, they scored 2 in 14 innings, both of them coming in the first inning at home. My question is, is it worth laying the -170 on Philly?
Well, do the math. -170 pays $58.82 for a $100.00 bet. That makes the break even probability 63%. If you feel (or compute) the Phillies to have a greater than 63% chance of winning you have positive EV and a playable wager. Personally, I compute an 81% probability the Phillies win the first 5 innings, but that is not necessarily how you feel and may think otherwise. That's just the mathematical fact, though, That you need at least a 63% probability of a win or don't play. I usually like at least a 5% edge in probability to play, so at 68% I like the Phillies, at 58% I might take a flyer on the dog, although I have no confidence in either Bedard or the Pirates, so scratch that. BOL
NaciremaDream notes no Utley, no Howard. In my opinion that is a blessing versus Bedard, get the right handed sticks in there. It is NOT by accident that Howard gets his R&R days when the Phillies face a lefty.
I will have my own POD ready soon but I had to go out this morning so I am little slow.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Quote Originally Posted by gamer13:
Phillies vs Pirates - Last year Bedard 1-4 in April with a 5.96 ERA. He gave up 5 runs in the first 5 in his first start, then 6 runs in 4 innings in his second start. Halladay did not allow a run in the first 3 games he pitched last year in the first 5 innings. Pittsburgh has only scored 5 runs in 38 innings against Halladay. Last year, they scored 2 in 14 innings, both of them coming in the first inning at home. My question is, is it worth laying the -170 on Philly?
Well, do the math. -170 pays $58.82 for a $100.00 bet. That makes the break even probability 63%. If you feel (or compute) the Phillies to have a greater than 63% chance of winning you have positive EV and a playable wager. Personally, I compute an 81% probability the Phillies win the first 5 innings, but that is not necessarily how you feel and may think otherwise. That's just the mathematical fact, though, That you need at least a 63% probability of a win or don't play. I usually like at least a 5% edge in probability to play, so at 68% I like the Phillies, at 58% I might take a flyer on the dog, although I have no confidence in either Bedard or the Pirates, so scratch that. BOL
NaciremaDream notes no Utley, no Howard. In my opinion that is a blessing versus Bedard, get the right handed sticks in there. It is NOT by accident that Howard gets his R&R days when the Phillies face a lefty.
I will have my own POD ready soon but I had to go out this morning so I am little slow.
Well, HoustonSports was right about his under. If that park tipped us off at all yesterday it did not look to me like the ball carried at all. We have to study it a little more of course, but if it is going to be a dead ball under park, best we know as soon as possible. As for myself, well I blew it and will have start down 100. Congrats to Cardinals backers, nice start.
Long season, very early, get them up here when you are ready.
The Florida Marlins were mostly unders at night and overs in day games. Now with the new park, you have to deal with an open or closed lid which changes the game. New stadium with a retractable roof changes the totals game.
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Well, HoustonSports was right about his under. If that park tipped us off at all yesterday it did not look to me like the ball carried at all. We have to study it a little more of course, but if it is going to be a dead ball under park, best we know as soon as possible. As for myself, well I blew it and will have start down 100. Congrats to Cardinals backers, nice start.
Long season, very early, get them up here when you are ready.
The Florida Marlins were mostly unders at night and overs in day games. Now with the new park, you have to deal with an open or closed lid which changes the game. New stadium with a retractable roof changes the totals game.
I had thought yesterdays game with roof open would be a hitters park,like Ari.with the roof open,but might not be the case here,or Flor.just sucks and cant hit,0 hits in 6 innings in a new park that you should be fired up in,need to see a few more games for sure now.
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I had thought yesterdays game with roof open would be a hitters park,like Ari.with the roof open,but might not be the case here,or Flor.just sucks and cant hit,0 hits in 6 innings in a new park that you should be fired up in,need to see a few more games for sure now.
JEG, I don't think it is that simple (open/closed). Miami is a sea level city with high humidity. Phoenix is 1130 ft. with very, very low humidity. Chase Field may be a little livelier with the roof open, but either way it is still a hitters park. With deep fences and high humidity I suspect Marlins Park will play to the under either way. jmho
No play after all for me today guys. See you tomorrow.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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JEG, I don't think it is that simple (open/closed). Miami is a sea level city with high humidity. Phoenix is 1130 ft. with very, very low humidity. Chase Field may be a little livelier with the roof open, but either way it is still a hitters park. With deep fences and high humidity I suspect Marlins Park will play to the under either way. jmho
No play after all for me today guys. See you tomorrow.
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