I Need 4 Or 5 Volunteers

For a research project. What the volunteers will do is send me a P.M. every day with one best bet. This is not a contest. The purpose will be to determine the optimum strategy for betting on baseball.

The strategy most commonly used (and the books never complain about) is lay the juice with favorites, flat play the dogs. We all know that and 95% of the wagering community will tell you that is correct. Well, if anyone can name even one definitive study that proves that to be correct then this little study of mine will be irrelevant and we can move on from there.

The second school of thought, which I personally subscribe to, is flat play all sides or totals with a percentage of bankroll. Accept a lesser profit with favorites and accept the bonuses with dogs.

The third school, which I call the "Sanford Wong" method because that was where I first heard of it is "lay the juice with favorites, short play the dogs, so that the target profit is always one unit.

There is a fourth possible strategy that I have meant to study at times over the years but never have. Traditionally favorites win about 57% of all games in the course of a season. So, if a player were to play 5.7% on bankroll on any favorite, including the juice, and 4.3% of bankroll on any dog, would he not be adjusting his wager size to the overall probability of success?

So, I would put the 4 or 5 volunteers on a spreadsheet, they would P.M. me their POD and I would post the picks when all were in and grade each pick by all 3, possibly 4, methods the next morning, versus the closing line at Pinnacle. Just so the volunteers and all other Covers viewers could monitor and certify the results I would post updates daily if possible, certainly weekly and monthly for sure.

Comments? Suggestions? Volunteers?

Count me in, Key.   

I'm in

OK, guys, glad to see you two in it. More details later but one thing I forgot to mention for volunteers is that I need guys with a track record of posting nearly every day. Not to piss anyone off, but newbies or occasional players are not what we need for a serious study.

Regular on MLB, count me in if u need me

I would do it, but most of my baseball bets consists of series bets and betting the under in Hits / Runs / Errors.

I'm going to start doing that his year....series bets. How successful have you been in the past on these?

I like that third option....thanks man.

The worst is when you bet on a series and you win the first 2 games so you think you win the bet.

That is stupid. I've looked into series wagering at my book in the past. And for example on a four game series...they only grade the first three games.

Uh, maybe if you change that disgusting avatar. Nothing personal, I just don't like it, that's all.

That is my least favorite. Too much risk on favorites, too little reward on dogs, but I guess we will find out.

Do you do series wagering as well at times Key?

Occasionally yes, but usually when I think a dog can take two of three as a visitor in some over valued favorites park. One that stands out from a couple years ago was the Royals at Yankees. I know they won 2, maybe swept, but those are not at all as unusual as people think and the payoff is usually astronomical. I think that same season the Phillies got swept at home 6 straight by 2 dogs. I knew some guys that were playing the "great teams don't get swept at home" progressive betting scheme and that one home stand by the Phillies wrecked their entire season, lol.

Thanks for the input. 

I'm curious to see if this indeed is effective. If your still looking count me in Key.

hello key element, for what this is worth, you are on the right train of thought. i devised a system years ago, but never had the proper bankroll to implement it, until this year. i will post here and there, mainly the second games of the series. won't post the first game series or everyone would be able to figure it out. i'm putting this much info here because the ones reading this are baseball junkies, ex-this is now 2,5 hours before the supper bowl and i'm here! my system is based upon series, once you hit, your done with the SERIES!  next, bankroll wise, your unit size should never be more than .5 or 1.0 percent of your bankroll, first day of most series, with ten to fifteen games, you have up to 30 different plays, just as most days!  the key to this, you want to be farless, betting 5% a play, if you have ten bets and have a bad day, (don't fool yourself, even the best do) your BR would be halfed, (CRUSHED) at .5-1.0 percent, your worst day, you still have 95% to move forward. these are the KEY words to REMEMBER, BANKROLL discipline, PATIENCE, baseball has double the opportunities of all other sports, who else has 10-15 games per day?  GOOD LUCK to all, if any of this sinks in, you will be on your way, in any sport betting, especially baseball!

icpopp: "the key to this, you want to be farless, betting 5% a play, if you have ten bets and have a bad day, (don't fool yourself, even the best do) your BR would be halfed, (CRUSHED)"
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I never have 10 bets in a single day and since I don't the 5% can be adjusted up or down daily (NO, not by a Kelly Criterion method, if you were going to say that)
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icpopp: "GOOD LUCK to all, if any of this sinks in, you will be on your way, in any sport betting, especially baseball!
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Could be wrong of course but I think that is pretty belligerent coming from a newbie with 34 posts that hasn't proven anything to anyone and has no established credibility. Post your stuff, keep your record (honestly, and posted record only), and if you do prove anything come back around at the All Star break and we will compare notes. One half to one percent of bankroll at a reasonable win % will make so little money it may as well be laying in a 2% savings account and drawing interest, unless of course you enjoy handicapping and gambling so much that working hard for that little profit turns you on.
BOL

my answer to you is EVERY SPORTS BOOK MANAGER in the LEGAL WORLD know me, when if you ever can say the same, then start talking shit! i know them and they know me, every step i make is comped!

Wow! I am really impressed now. More unsubstantiated bullshit you can't prove. Let me get your excuse out there for you, save you the trouble. You are so well known among every sports book manager in the known universe you have to hide your identity here to protect all your incredibly powerful contacts. If your identity and connections were known it would shake the sports gambling world to it's very foundation.

I "flat bet" a different way Key.  My risk + win = 2 units, always.  So, if I'm "risking" 1 unit on a +100 bet it's pretty simple, I risk 1 unit to win 1 unit.  However, if I'm "risking" 1 unit on a +150 bet, I risk 0.8 units to win 1.2 units.  If I'm risking 1 unit on a -200 bet, I risk 1.33 units to win .67 units and so forth.  To me, this is truly flat betting because you have the same amount of your bankroll "invested" into each game.  Meaning, if you take all of your games you've ever bet on using this method, you would have the same profit no matter which games you won and lost (assuming a fixed winning percentage).  Hope that makes sense, maybe method number 5.

arkadymo: That sort of looks like another hybrid method, but flat betting is dependent on risk, not reward. Similar to the Wong method you have made the target profit the control factor. One fact about gambling I can't get past is that profit is not controllable, only risk is controllable. I don't know about adding a fourth method but I will give it some thought with an open mind. I just don't want to make this too burdensome to keep up with.

He's probably part of a "syndicate" that has a data base and a bankroll of units that ends in 6 zeroes. They are also going to take over the world of online penny auctions after they win the WSOP and get another bankroll.