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Relative Umpire Stats

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Posted: #1
I made a basic spreadsheet that only measures O/U, K/BB ratio and BB/9. Once I find it I can go back and include any stat. My issue is with the sample size. I have umpires with extreme under tendencies who may also have low K/BB ratios and a high BB/9. The bottom line is, unless the sample is massive, I can't diminish that a lot of these numbers are player dependent (when the sample gets huge I think the "ump strength of schedule" should even out.

I think it would be a lot of work to go back and do it but I'm thinking of relating strike% (and whatever other stats we find relevant) to the pitcher's normal strike %. I can find it game-by-game in the box score under "pitches-strikes" and more importantly, you know who threw them. I don't think I'll go back and scour past results (i may do 2011 and see how time consuming it is) but I'll make it part of my process going forward.

I think breaking down offense might be taking it a step to far but who knows? What do you guys think? Is it relevant? More importantly, is it worth it?
 
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Posted: #2
well illusions honestly that's up to you. For me i use the covers umpire trends during the season. BOL to you hang out on here during the season and welcome to covers
 
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Posted: #3
Thanks, I'll keep everyone posted with what I come up with. Everyone feel free to discuss umpires in here


 
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Posted: #4
try to avoid betting games that joe west and angel hernandez umpire
 
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Posted: #5
I limit myself to K/BB ratio and % of strikes called. O/U results can be very deceiving. If one guy calls a bunch of overs versus totals around 7 and another guy calls a bunch of unders versus line around 9.5, did you really learn anything from that? Surprising the number of guys on this site that will quote an umpires O/U record, even if it varies greatly from what it was in past seasons. I also try to remember that the players play the game, not the umpires. Pitcher versus lineup will always have more to do with results than the guy behind the plate, no matter how much you scream at the TV or come into the forum and bitch about the ump.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #6
Key....you're right where I am with this. I just don't think any of what's being used means anything. And like you are getting at, even valuable stats like K/BB or strike % don't really mean anything by themselves.

I've put together my spreadsheet and the formulas are in place. What I'm trying is to focus on only strike% but I'm calling it "relative strike%". My formulas basically strip the pitcher's strike% from the year in question (i'm on 2011). The stat I'm left with is how the umpire performed vs pitcher expectation.

I'll try to give an example without going into the formulas so you can tell where I'm going:

-on 3/31 last year Dana Demuth umped the Angels/Royals game
-Jared weaver threw 107 pitches and 67 for strikes
-In 2011 Jared Weaver threw 3746 pitches and 2401 for strikes (64%)
-Over 107 pitches, Weaver's expected strikes thrown is 68.6. He only threw 67 with Demuth behind the plate.
-Repeat for the other starter and all relievers (once the formulas are in it's pretty simple)

I'm sure you see where I'm going. I have an excel tab for every umpire. This sample is tiny but for 2011 we're tracking an umpire who's out there 30 times and sees 300 pitches a game. We have about 9000 pitches per ump per season. And while I like strike%, whichever stat you rely on can work with a few tweaks.
 
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Posted: #7
And I'm with you on players playing, not umps. I'm trying to put a process together and my goal is to have all my statistics done before the season so I'm not bothered with it (other than 2 hours of daily updates) when I should be "thinking" during the season. For you poker players, it's like poker tracker review after every session so you're ready for the next one.

I'm working on a runs model too which is all player-based. I'd love some ideas from anyone who is familiar with sabermetrics but that's for another thread sometime.
 
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Posted: #8
I wish you well with your projects, which could prove very rewarding. I, too, track some things other guys don't bother with but tend to lean me in the right direction. When you start to publish your findings here or elsewhere you will get ignored a lot or get a lot of "that crap don't matter" from guys that have not opened a book or done any honest research since high school. Don't let that sway you. All research is important and some of it leads to conclusions we wouldn't otherwise reach. Sometimes the research we are conducting leads us to other things we are curious about. That is how SABRmetrics actually got started. Best wishes, look forward to visiting with you throughout the year.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #9
looking forward to how this turns out. Jobe. and all stats matter its almost that matters in wagering along with trends
 
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Posted: #10

Man this reminds me of a grand plan I used for the second half of a season a while ago, ( I think it was the 1999 or 2000 season).  I strictly bet O/U's on based Umpire/starting pitching matchups.  I pretty much used K/W% and strikes called %,,, I stayed away from the umps and pitchers previous O/U results.  I think I also tried factoring in the ball parks if there was any kind of substansial history with the umps or SP's,,, (maybe that was on of my problems).

  As I recall it was really frustrating at the time because it was extremely hard to find out who the HP ump would be for the beggining of a sereies until about 10 minutes before the first pitch, and it was also no walk in the part to find reliable updated umpire stats for the ongoing season.

Short story long,,,,  I ended up being damn near exactly 50% when all was said and done.  I guess it wasn't a complete waste for me however, because I came to the realization that capping games based on who the HP ump, was no help for me, and I haven't done so since.

I really really agree with Key here that trying to get an edge on the available lines is best accomplished by putting a large emphasis on the SP matchups, in my case it's about 2/3 to 3/4 of what I use to make my line.

Anyway BOL to you, I hope you have better success than I did, if you hit paydirt feel free to share and we'll all put the beatdown on the man.

 
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Posted: #11

This is how i handicap baseball games and let me say there is no 1 way to do it. I look at the pitchers. In these ways

1. How they do against their opponent

2. How they do vs the other team

3.How they do against that teams hitters

I go as well on weather. If there is a possibility of crap weather i don't bet that game i just don't. How i use umpires is this i'll give an example lets say i like the angels over seattle. I like weaver's numbers vs the m's. If its available here on covers i look at the umpire stats and it says the m's are 5-1 with joe west behind the plate and the angels are 3-12 with him behind the plate. I don't bet the game.

I'm not stupid nor is anyone else there are a lot of reasons the angels would be 3-12 with west behind plate. Bad pitching matchup,crap hitters,possibly tight K zone but if the umpre stat is available and it gets me that information i use it. Just my 2 cents

 

 
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Posted: #12
packers1992: 

As usual (but not always, lol) you make some valid points but when historical data becomes involved I always have to question how far back it goes and how relevant is it? Rosters change so much in this day and age that if we go back too far career versus is totally irrelevant, but some guys post it like it were the greatest thing since sliced bread. Just to use a really far flung example, Jamie Moyer left the National League for 18 years. So, when he comes back how relevant is any stat versus any National League Club except for recent Interleague play? By the time he comes back it may as well be going to Japan or Mexico, nothing is the same as his career stats versus NL teams would matter diddly squat. So, maybe Joe West career with the Mariners and Angels is 5-1 and 3-12, but if the last 2 he called for each team was 1-1 and 1-1, I would have to regard the prior as an irrelevant anomaly. Speaking only for myself, I think anything more than 20 games back is significantly less relevant and useful. Example: there was more than one guy on this site last August and September saying "I would love to bet the Brewers, but they are such a bad road team." That was true in the early season but the Brewers turned it around and were a 50-50 road team down the stretch, so even April and May were irrelevant. I guess all I really meant to say was, be careful how far back you go and how much weight you give it, recent performance is much more important.

BTW, that 20 games back is applied to SPs, H-A, vs L-R, and is graded to give more weight to recent performance than past. At the end of a season if we allow the total 160 game stats to influence our decisions that would be the same as honoring 10 years in the NFL or 2 years in the NBA. How many guys do you know that are doing that? jmho.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #13
Are these the same stats that COVERS includes on their website?
 
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Posted: #14
I actually use an arbitrary weighting system to factor in how relevant my recent stats are. For example, I have a L/R multiplier in my runs model. I go back 4 years and and note overall OPS and OPS vs lefties. This year I would multiply 2011 by 4, 2010 by 3, 2009 by 2 and 2008 by 1. Then divide by 10 to get my lefty multiplier. I divide my lefty multiplier by 3 (since about 3x PA's are vs righties) for my righty multiplier to get a good estimate that favors recent performance. Like I said it's arbitrary but it's better than doing nothing. Even if it were to overestimate it won't be by more than not factoring any of it would be off by.Weather intentionally or accidentally, it accounts for adjustments a hitter might make.

I use my L/R multiplier and multiply by 2 (6 ip). Then I add expectation with no multiplier (3 ip)vs the bullpen and divide by 3. Again this is just one example of something I factor in and it wasn't easy to put it into words so I hope it makes a little sense.
 
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Posted: #15

Quote Originally Posted by IllusionsGOB:

I actually use an arbitrary weighting system to factor in how relevant my recent stats are. For example, I have a L/R multiplier in my runs model. I go back 4 years and and note overall OPS and OPS vs lefties. This year I would multiply 2011 by 4, 2010 by 3, 2009 by 2 and 2008 by 1. Then divide by 10 to get my lefty multiplier. I divide my lefty multiplier by 3 (since about 3x PA's are vs righties) for my righty multiplier to get a good estimate that favors recent performance. Like I said it's arbitrary but it's better than doing nothing. Even if it were to overestimate it won't be by more than not factoring any of it would be off by.Weather intentionally or accidentally, it accounts for adjustments a hitter might make.

I use my L/R multiplier and multiply by 2 (6 ip). Then I add expectation with no multiplier (3 ip)vs the bullpen and divide by 3. Again this is just one example of something I factor in and it wasn't easy to put it into words so I hope it makes a little sense.

 

Wooooooo. I can't balance my check book, but I will take your word for it. Sounds wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too complicated for my infertile brain.

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by mikeyp1:

 

Wooooooo. I can't balance my check book, but I will take your word for it. Sounds wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too complicated for my infertile brain.

Most of us that do this kind of thing will tell you that building the formulas is the only tricky part. After that the data entered just pops your probability numbers back at you. About all that is left is the human judgement factor. If, in my opinion, I agree with my numbers, all is well, play it. I used to go against my own numbers occasionally but was wrong more often than right, so I have learned not to do that, either play your numbers or leave that game alone, lol. 
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Posted: #17
That's about where I'm at, Key. My numbers just kind of keep me in line. The total time handicapping is similar to someone capping every game. I'm weeding the slate each day down to only plays that are fundamentally (or statistically) strong. I figure my judgements beyond that can be wrong and often will be, but how much damage can my bad judgement really do? (as long as my stats, projections, and predicted lineup and bullpen availablity are as sharp as possible).


 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

packers1992: 

As usual (but not always, lol) you make some valid points but when historical data becomes involved I always have to question how far back it goes and how relevant is it? Rosters change so much in this day and age that if we go back too far career versus is totally irrelevant, but some guys post it like it were the greatest thing since sliced bread. Just to use a really far flung example, Jamie Moyer left the National League for 18 years. So, when he comes back how relevant is any stat versus any National League Club except for recent Interleague play? By the time he comes back it may as well be going to Japan or Mexico, nothing is the same as his career stats versus NL teams would matter diddly squat. So, maybe Joe West career with the Mariners and Angels is 5-1 and 3-12, but if the last 2 he called for each team was 1-1 and 1-1, I would have to regard the prior as an irrelevant anomaly. Speaking only for myself, I think anything more than 20 games back is significantly less relevant and useful. Example: there was more than one guy on this site last August and September saying "I would love to bet the Brewers, but they are such a bad road team." That was true in the early season but the Brewers turned it around and were a 50-50 road team down the stretch, so even April and May were irrelevant. I guess all I really meant to say was, be careful how far back you go and how much weight you give it, recent performance is much more important.

BTW, that 20 games back is applied to SPs, H-A, vs L-R, and is graded to give more weight to recent performance than past. At the end of a season if we allow the total 160 game stats to influence our decisions that would be the same as honoring 10 years in the NFL or 2 years in the NBA. How many guys do you know that are doing that? jmho.

Okay key i didn't fully explain it. I'm gonna use Roy Halladay as an example when he plays the Braves i go to usually yahoosports.com to look at his numbers against CURRENT Braves Hitters. Like i also said there is no one way to do it. I've had 2 winning baseball seasons in a row and i started betting baseball in 2010. I could lose but either way i'm going to do it my way. And by the way Key you're always up my butt about everything. I could say the Astros would be the worst team in baseball and you'd fight me on it. Stop picking at me. And to me LY if the numbers that i look at say take the Brewers i don't care where they play i'm taking them. BOL to everyone
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by iceman67:

Man this reminds me of a grand plan I used for the second half of a season a while ago, ( I think it was the 1999 or 2000 season).  I strictly bet O/U's on based Umpire/starting pitching matchups.  I pretty much used K/W% and strikes called %,,, I stayed away from the umps and pitchers previous O/U results.  I think I also tried factoring in the ball parks if there was any kind of substansial history with the umps or SP's,,, (maybe that was on of my problems).

  As I recall it was really frustrating at the time because it was extremely hard to find out who the HP ump would be for the beggining of a sereies until about 10 minutes before the first pitch, and it was also no walk in the part to find reliable updated umpire stats for the ongoing season.

Short story long,,,,  I ended up being damn near exactly 50% when all was said and done.  I guess it wasn't a complete waste for me however, because I came to the realization that capping games based on who the HP ump, was no help for me, and I haven't done so since.

I really really agree with Key here that trying to get an edge on the available lines is best accomplished by putting a large emphasis on the SP matchups, in my case it's about 2/3 to 3/4 of what I use to make my line.

Anyway BOL to you, I hope you have better success than I did, if you hit paydirt feel free to share and we'll all put the beatdown on the man.

  out of strike zone pitches, walks, grooved fastballs, and hanging breaking pitches usually make the total over regardless of who is on the bump or behind the plate on any particular evening makes for overs, just an observation.
 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by braves5795:

  out of strike zone pitches, walks, grooved fastballs, and hanging breaking pitches usually make the total over regardless of who is on the bump or behind the plate on any particular evening makes for overs, just an observation.


So just bet over then?
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