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[MLB Betting] Topic: 5 Inning Discussion Thread, Wednesday 10-12-11 |
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KeyElement |
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#1 Posted: 10/12/2011 9:16:04 AM
Another observation: Coming into the Texas-Detroit series most of the guys on Covers felt the Rangers had the superior bullpen, especially considering they moved Ogando there from the rotation. Maybe si, maybe non, but it is also apparent they needed the better bullpen as their starters have only given them 4.33 innings per start and the bullpen has had to cover 15 of the 28 innings they have pitched to the Tigers.
I think I have said this before but don't recall any comments on it. Bullpen effectiveness is directly related and parallel to starter distance. Of course the Phillies have a good bullpen; when your starters go 6+ innings most games and you have a short bridge from starter to closer, the bullpen tends to be rested and ready at all times and that gives the manager a good any options in the late innings. Teams with 5 inning starters will consistently be stressed and not have those options, hence lesser bullpen performance.
Today's guys are all pretty much 6 inning guys so that has no real effect on a 5 inning handicap, but it does come into consideration if we extend our thinking to probable 9 inning results. Food for thought anyway, if not today, certainly in the future.
I am not settled yet on either game, side or total, but would like to thank kdawgy for joining us yesterday and invite him back again, as often as he likes. I would point out this is a Discussion Thread, not a jump on the bandwagon thread so all diverse opinions are welcome.
BOL guys, cya later.
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lltb43 |
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#2 Posted: 10/12/2011 11:10:20 AM Hello Key,
My thoughts on tonights games are to take the pitchers who are doing better against the opponent. I am parlaying SL and Det +.5.
Good luck to everyone tonight. |
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KeyElement |
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#3 Posted: 10/12/2011 11:28:42 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by lltb43: Hello Key,
My thoughts on tonights games are to take the pitchers who are doing better against the opponent. I am parlaying SL and Det +.5.
Good luck to everyone tonight. I can certainly see your point but so far I have the "close" feeling on both these games. I think if I wanted to play it safe I would take the +.5 on both, and if I really had faith in Porcello and Carpenter I would take the +.5 on neither, for the higher payout. Maybe look at it a couple different ways?
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KeyElement |
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#4 Posted: 10/12/2011 12:32:38 PM
Among the many things that bother me are guys that A) are all so very concerned about the injuries in the Tigers lineup and B) guys that do not differentiate offensive potential on a situation by situation basis. Worse yet are guys that are going to read Covers "season to date" or "last 10" stats and never realize how misleading those stats can be.
OK, so I myself have accused Rick Porcello of being the luckiest starter in the major leagues, with his team going 21-11 in his starts but he himself having stats that just don't justify that. So, how lucky has he been and can we somehow understand that and use it to our advantage? Another thing I have often pointed out is that the Tigers finished the regular season as the top hitting team among all versus left handed pitching, with a 6.80 offensive era versus lefty starters, and in the playoffs they have knocked out Sabathia in 2, Sabathia in a relief role,Wilson in 4.2 and Holland in 2.2.
Now comes Matt Harrison, 0-2 this year with a 6.30 era versus the Tigers, and a guy that has never had a quality start versus the Tigers in 5 attempts over 3 seasons.
Back to Rick Porcellos "luck". The Tigers are 4-2 in his last 6 starts versus lefties and have posted an average of 7.16 runs per game. OK, so the guy has been lucky, but there is no reason that luck can not continue today, based as it is in real game matchups.
BOL
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JEG53 |
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#5 Posted: 10/12/2011 1:34:06 PM
Took over 7 in Milk.-Cards game.
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backdooor_cover |
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#6 Posted: 10/12/2011 2:31:38 PM 
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backdooor_cover |
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#7 Posted: 10/12/2011 2:39:10 PM
Weeks has been terrible this post season. It makes it easy to pitch around Fielder to get to Weeks. With Fielder being there biggest threat the one guy the Cardinals has to worry about is Braun. Don't see this being very difficult for Carpenter. Hopefully Carpenter carries that inspiring emotional game 5 against the phillies over to this game.
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PoRToRoKPuRo |
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#8 Posted: 10/12/2011 2:50:34 PM |
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JEG53 |
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#9 Posted: 10/12/2011 2:57:44 PM 
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JEG53 |
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#10 Posted: 10/12/2011 3:01:41 PM
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JEG53 |
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#11 Posted: 10/12/2011 3:02:35 PM
its early still.
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WhySoSucK |
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#12 Posted: 10/12/2011 3:03:25 PM  |
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JEG53 |
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#13 Posted: 10/12/2011 4:15:06 PM
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JEG53 |
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#14 Posted: 10/12/2011 4:22:12 PM
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#15 Posted: 10/12/2011 4:56:42 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by JEG53:
Nelson Cruz is out,Inge is in as DH,thats a big drop off.
WTF? Cruz plays for Tx while Inge plays for Det. But both are in the lineup. Inge is playing 3B. Martinez is Det's DH. |
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JEG53 |
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#16 Posted: 10/12/2011 5:09:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:
WTF? Cruz plays for Tx while Inge plays for Det. But both are in the lineup. Inge is playing 3B. Martinez is Det's DH.
Im not sure what I meant to say,other than Inge sucks,I dont wake up really until the sun goes down,its funny looking at it now,lol.
Inge has made an out everytime Ive needed a hit from him,I just had to write something.
But saw on Covers that Nelson was??,so my brain somehow put them together,but your right,they are both playing if they do play.
Still time to take Texas now.
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KeyElement |
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#17 Posted: 10/12/2011 5:38:50 PM
Nice input on the early game guys. Even bd_c joined us today (must be over his football hangover). Any further input on the night game?
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KeyElement |
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#18 Posted: 10/12/2011 8:03:44 PM
And one of our new guys, PoRToRoKPuRo nailed the under.
The really good news is that the Rangers will feed another lefty to the Tigers tomorrow, versus a fully rested Verlander at home.
BOL, good night
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