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NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
NCAAF: 2-3 (40.0%) -2.30u
NFL: 8-8 (50.0%) -1.8u
MLB-P: 2-1 (66.7%) +1.00u
Detroit @ New York Under 9 (+100)
Yesterday I played the under in the Philadelphia @ St. Louis game mostly because it was a contrarian bet. My projection in that game of 6.9 only left 1.1 run of value below the losing number of 8 (this is too narrow a margin of error strictly numbers wise to justify a wager). I forced that bet because I was looking for action. Today my projections leave much more room for error and this is strictly a by-the-numbers bet.
Yankee stadium is notorious for its short porch. This could easily be a problem with the Tigers 5th ranked offense and the Yankees 1st ranked offense. The Yankees demonstrated last game that they were capable of very big innings as they beat up on the Tigers bullpen (however, many of these runs came off of the already shaken rookie who was rocked by Cano for a grand slam earlier in the series). The game also seemed out of reach at that point and the Tigers focus was clearly down. Don't expect to see Al Alburquerque again tonight. In fact, don't expect to see much of the Detroit's 22nd ranked bullpen at all. Now I know Fister got rocked by the Yankees earlier this series, but that was way out of character. He had 2 walks in the 4.2 innings that he pitched which is more than twice his average. He also gave up 6 runs with only 9 base runners. That's not the strand rate you would expect from a ground ball pitcher. This brings me to the biggest reason why the under is the right bet tonight. Not only does Doug Fister back up very impressive advanced metrics with solid ground ball numbers, but Ivan Nova is what I classify as an elite ground ball pitcher. I'll list their stats in the next post before I continue with my analysis..
NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00uMLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
NCAAF: 2-3 (40.0%) -2.30u
NFL: 8-8 (50.0%) -1.8u
MLB-P: 2-1 (66.7%) +1.00u
Detroit @ New York Under 9 (+100)
Yesterday I played the under in the Philadelphia @ St. Louis game mostly because it was a contrarian bet. My projection in that game of 6.9 only left 1.1 run of value below the losing number of 8 (this is too narrow a margin of error strictly numbers wise to justify a wager). I forced that bet because I was looking for action. Today my projections leave much more room for error and this is strictly a by-the-numbers bet.
Yankee stadium is notorious for its short porch. This could easily be a problem with the Tigers 5th ranked offense and the Yankees 1st ranked offense. The Yankees demonstrated last game that they were capable of very big innings as they beat up on the Tigers bullpen (however, many of these runs came off of the already shaken rookie who was rocked by Cano for a grand slam earlier in the series). The game also seemed out of reach at that point and the Tigers focus was clearly down. Don't expect to see Al Alburquerque again tonight. In fact, don't expect to see much of the Detroit's 22nd ranked bullpen at all. Now I know Fister got rocked by the Yankees earlier this series, but that was way out of character. He had 2 walks in the 4.2 innings that he pitched which is more than twice his average. He also gave up 6 runs with only 9 base runners. That's not the strand rate you would expect from a ground ball pitcher. This brings me to the biggest reason why the under is the right bet tonight. Not only does Doug Fister back up very impressive advanced metrics with solid ground ball numbers, but Ivan Nova is what I classify as an elite ground ball pitcher. I'll list their stats in the next post before I continue with my analysis..
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