3-0 Yesterday 15-4 the last 3 days

Forum: MLB Betting Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 3-0 Yesterday 15-4 the last 3 days
Raider99 PM Raider99
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 494
 
Raider99
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:03:50 PM

Amazing......since college football saturday if a team has over 70% on them I went the other way. 7-2 on sat, 5-2 on sun, 3-0 yesterday when I took cubs,florida, and sd. Wish me luck today......

Cubs

Mets

Oakland

depbmoc PM depbmoc
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 11604
 
depbmoc
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:07:35 PM
good luck raider 99
stevewolve PM stevewolve
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 1043
 
stevewolve
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:08:22 PM
need  a prayer.............
depbmoc PM depbmoc
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 11604
 
depbmoc
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:09:27 PM
cubs are only 69 % buddy dont break your rule and kill your streak  good luck man 
Raider99 PM Raider99
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 494
 
Raider99
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:13:06 PM
Just for the record guys, Im not a big baller I dont place 100 units on a game, but this is nuts. I posted my picks on Sunday only cause I was shocked at my results on sat, and I had just as good of a day on sun. I never expect these teams to win yesterday and I swept the board.....so hey why not keep riding the wave, Im sure it wont happen everyday.
Douglas1963 PM Douglas1963
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 38
 
Douglas1963
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:13:57 PM

Raider99, BOL

Raider99 PM Raider99
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 494
 
Raider99
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:14:00 PM

dep......covers has them at 70%

 

Cdub03 PM Cdub03
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1054
 
Cdub03
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:17:01 PM
BOL to you today!!! 
Raider99 PM Raider99
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 494
 
Raider99
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:21:08 PM
Thanks guys!!!! If this works out again I hope some of you start to do it and make some $$$$$. After all thats what we are all here for.
pinballwizard PM pinballwizard
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 11148
 
pinballwizard
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:21:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Raider99:

dep......covers has them at 70%

 

Raider what are you looking under on the Covers site to get your percentage numbers? 

Raider99 PM Raider99
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 494
 
Raider99
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:26:02 PM
Pin....I just hit the scores tap at the top of the page and select whatever sport Im looking into for the day
pinballwizard PM pinballwizard
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 11148
 
pinballwizard
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:29:36 PM
Thanks Raider and bol with your day's plays as well. 
Raider99 PM Raider99
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 494
 
Raider99
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:30:04 PM

Btw.....The KC line looks fishy, they are not at 70% yet but the line keeps going up and they are favored against a strong Detroit team. How does this make sense??? Kc would be my play too.

Going to the gym for a couple good luck to everybody and thanks for the support!!!

pinballwizard PM pinballwizard
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 11148
 
pinballwizard
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:32:16 PM
Raider on a final note, why would you not wait until just prior to gametime to make your plays in case the consensus numbers change? 
Raider99 PM Raider99
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 494
 
Raider99
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:36:46 PM

Pin.....when it comes down too it I dont think it really matters, if the line is somewhere around 70 its not going to flex that much. Bottom line vegas is still making alot of money rather its 70 or 68% on a certain team.

pinballwizard PM pinballwizard
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 11148
 
pinballwizard
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:38:50 PM
Gotcha. 
Raider99 PM Raider99
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 494
 
Raider99
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:39:12 PM
Guys Im not asking anyone to tail me, but I just want you too start looking at the % before placing a wager and check out how often a team fav by 70 or more actually wins. As far as I know I can go 0-3 today but turn around and go 5-1 tomorrow.
depbmoc PM depbmoc
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 11604
 
depbmoc
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:39:48 PM
the nats hit buddy they were over 70 

i love it
depbmoc PM depbmoc
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 11604
 
depbmoc
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:43:22 PM
good luck , i was just razzing you earlier buddy 69. 76 is pretty close to 70. nice observation man. i will certainly watch it 
princeofasia PM princeofasia
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 4009
 
princeofasia
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:45:35 PM
Man on fire!
Mozart PM Mozart
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 2993
 
Mozart
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 9/20/2011 5:11:29 PM
Raider 99 -- Thank you so much for posting this!

I had thought about fading the high-consensus plays, but somehow, I did not bother to check through the records.

Well I did that, finally. I went back about ten days of baseball records and found out of 20 samples:

HOME-FAVORITE wins (70%-favored teams winning) -- 7

AWAY-FAVORITE wins (70%-favored teams winning) -- 3


HOME-FAVORITE losses (70%-favored teams losing) -- 6

AWAY-FAVORITE losses (70%-favored teams losing) -- 4

So out of this small 20-game sample (a 40-game sample would be better... as anything over a 32-count sample would be more representative of the whole of baseball, statistics-wise), the results were even with 10 winning bets and 10 losing bets.

10 losing bets (betting against the favorites who won), assuming that each bet was $100, so a total loss of $1,000.

10 winning bets (betting against the favorites who lost), assuming that each bet was $100 and that the average profit was about $170, plus the bet back, due to the high chalk of the favorites... a total profit of $1,700, plus your $1,000 of bet money back, for a total return of $2,700.

Total return: $2,700

Total losses: $1,000

Net profit      $1,700   

Nice! garbage, I should have done this a LONG TIME AGO!

But we have the hockey season coming up that has very similar betting structures to baseball, so perhaps, this fade-the-70%-favorite consensus model can carry over into hockey?

I'm going to take a look into NCAAF football and NFL football, too, but given their point-spread systems, I doubt that the fade-the-70% favorite model would hold up in those sports, but I'll surely take a close look at the point spreads vs. the SU betting results.


Raider99 PM Raider99
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 494
 
Raider99
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/20/2011 6:36:51 PM
Mozart...I love the stats!!!! Thanks!!! It does work for football, between sat and sun I was 12-4, I also took atl and atl halftime but that was only in the mid 60's
Raider99 PM Raider99
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 494
 
Raider99
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/20/2011 6:39:21 PM
To  me baseball is harder then football for example I dont see how any three of these teams win outright tonight, but football somehow some stupid play at the end gets you the cover.
POLISH PM POLISH
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1182
 
POLISH
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 9/20/2011 6:43:05 PM

LOOKS LIKE

1-2 FOR THE DAY

more4us PM more4us
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 13319
 
more4us
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 9/20/2011 6:44:57 PM
BOL.........................
Forum: MLB Betting Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.