Posted:
#1
Well, not so much the Astros having bite but more so the Brewers showing up toothless.
Put yourself in Milwaukee's shoes for this game. They have one of their better pitchers going up against an absolute gas can. Happ is probably the worst starter going in the majors right now and everyone including the Brewers knows it. The pathetic Astros also just lost their best player last night as Pence was traded. If Milwaukee thought this team sucked before then they must really think they suck now. Milwaukee also doesn't have a little motivational edge like they did last night after they watched Houston win in St. Louis the 2 games previous. Houston came into this series a little hot but the Brewers squashed that last night winning a 4-0 laugher.
Milwaukee has the best home record in the majors going up against the team with the worst record in the majors. The Astros just lost their only real player. Milwaukee just shut them out last night and on paper have a mammoth pitching edge. To me this seems like a spot where Milwaukee comes in thinking "we'll just show up and we'll win" which is usually when big favorites sleep through games and can be beaten.
Apart from the psychological aspect I touched on above I also see a few numbers supporting Houston at this mammoth price.
1. Happ is garbage and maybe this is reaching but in his career after giving up 6 ER or more in a game he is 1-1 in 4 starts with a 2.25 ERA over 24 IP with a 1.29 WHIP. Not spectacular but you aren't going to find (or need) spectacular numbers betting a +240 baseball underdog.
2. Gallardo threw 120 pitches in his last start. Since tearing his ACL in 2008 Gallardo has not pitched well after throwing 120 or more pitches in his previous start. He does have a nice 4-1 record in 6 starts but he also has a 4.86 ERA and 1.59 WHIP to go along with just 1 quality start in the 6 outings.
3. Gallardo also probably isn't worthy of being priced like this. Again, he does have a nice record at 17-7 but over the last 3 years at home as a -145 or more fav he has a 3.86 ERA and 1.30 WHIP which is pretty mediocre for the National League and is bad for a guy currently sitting at -260. He's pitched 30 times in this spot and has a quality start on his record in just 13 of them.
4. One of the reasons Gallardo has nice records in trends #2 & #3 is because the Brewers usually score runs for him as they have a good offense. The problem is over their last 8 games they are struggling with the sticks as the most runs they've scored in a game is 4 and they are averaging just 2.5 runs per game over that span.
Going to take a shot at these prices that the Brewers come out flat:
Houston +1.5 +105
Houston ML +242
Houston 1st 5 innings +214
And a small shot on a Houston ML/UNDER 8.5 parlay at +523.
Put yourself in Milwaukee's shoes for this game. They have one of their better pitchers going up against an absolute gas can. Happ is probably the worst starter going in the majors right now and everyone including the Brewers knows it. The pathetic Astros also just lost their best player last night as Pence was traded. If Milwaukee thought this team sucked before then they must really think they suck now. Milwaukee also doesn't have a little motivational edge like they did last night after they watched Houston win in St. Louis the 2 games previous. Houston came into this series a little hot but the Brewers squashed that last night winning a 4-0 laugher.
Milwaukee has the best home record in the majors going up against the team with the worst record in the majors. The Astros just lost their only real player. Milwaukee just shut them out last night and on paper have a mammoth pitching edge. To me this seems like a spot where Milwaukee comes in thinking "we'll just show up and we'll win" which is usually when big favorites sleep through games and can be beaten.
Apart from the psychological aspect I touched on above I also see a few numbers supporting Houston at this mammoth price.
1. Happ is garbage and maybe this is reaching but in his career after giving up 6 ER or more in a game he is 1-1 in 4 starts with a 2.25 ERA over 24 IP with a 1.29 WHIP. Not spectacular but you aren't going to find (or need) spectacular numbers betting a +240 baseball underdog.
2. Gallardo threw 120 pitches in his last start. Since tearing his ACL in 2008 Gallardo has not pitched well after throwing 120 or more pitches in his previous start. He does have a nice 4-1 record in 6 starts but he also has a 4.86 ERA and 1.59 WHIP to go along with just 1 quality start in the 6 outings.
3. Gallardo also probably isn't worthy of being priced like this. Again, he does have a nice record at 17-7 but over the last 3 years at home as a -145 or more fav he has a 3.86 ERA and 1.30 WHIP which is pretty mediocre for the National League and is bad for a guy currently sitting at -260. He's pitched 30 times in this spot and has a quality start on his record in just 13 of them.
4. One of the reasons Gallardo has nice records in trends #2 & #3 is because the Brewers usually score runs for him as they have a good offense. The problem is over their last 8 games they are struggling with the sticks as the most runs they've scored in a game is 4 and they are averaging just 2.5 runs per game over that span.
Going to take a shot at these prices that the Brewers come out flat:
Houston +1.5 +105
Houston ML +242
Houston 1st 5 innings +214
And a small shot on a Houston ML/UNDER 8.5 parlay at +523.
0
It was exactly one year ago Happ debut as Astros and pitched shutout against this same team . Maybe he remember that and pitch well. But i watched him pitch 2 times last 2 weeks and it's frustrating. He falls behind against everyone. Looking at his last 5 games, pitch count is over 100 in all 5 and got out of 5th inning only once, walked 20, tells he just don't have control now somehow. I like to keep my hair so i won't be on them but hope you hit it.
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