FIRST 5 INNING THREAD WEDNESDAY 6/08/11

i hit the salami again thanks for pointing that out again...how do you feel for the total in sox/yanks.

a little disappointed that your on the mariners, was really liking the white sox

gl today and get that loot

YTD: 7-22, -1,387.68 units, average return on risk, -46.3% (I suck, No excuses)

All plays are 5 Innings

Blue Jays (Villanueva) +101 over Royals (Duffy)

I suppose folks are looking for a bounce back here but I personally doubt it. I would like to have more background on both chuckers but at this point I have Villanueva rated slightly better and it has nothing to do with the Jays being 3-0 in his starts versus the Royals 0-4 in Duffy’s. What I track and rate, by my own proprietary method, is skills, not wins and losses. Anyway, the real difference here is in offense and momentum. Everyone knows the Jays can hit, but what they do to lefties is downright criminal. Overall the Jays are 10-6 versus lefty starters this year, but that includes bullpen performances and does not really give us an in depth look at versus starters only. The stuff I track does give us a true performance rating for 5 inning games (that’s why I do it, duh). In the 5 inning game the Jays are 5-1-2 their last 8 and averaging 4.9 earned runs before knocking out the opposing starter in 5.2 innings. At this time, from my database of the latest 15 games versus lefties I project the Jays to have an offensive era of 6.9 runs per 9 innings versus Mr Average Lefty, and Duffy looks pretty average at this time. By contrast the Royals are 3-3-2 in the 5 inning game versus righties their last 8 and averaging only 2.6 earned runs while allowing those starters to go 6.1 innings. Projected 5 inning score Blue Jays 4, Royals 2.  

Before you ask: Yes, with Cousins behind the plate and wind out of the South, the Over does look good, but not an official play.   

BOL

All plays are a flat 100 units.

Lines are current at BetJamaica as I post