Why are the Indians and underdog today?

Cleveland may be 11-11 on the road, but Tampa is 11-13 at home this year.

First off, based on perception alone there is no way the Indians would not be underdogs playing at the Trop. Second, without Hafner or Sizemore in the lineup coupled with Santana's current slump, there isn't a bat (other than Cabrera's) to be feared at the moment. David Price will shut this offense down, just like Beckett and Lester did the last two games in Cleveland. The long-awaited fade of this years Tribe team has begun. They'll be lucky to get 2 of 6 in the next two series (Jays on deck).

Yea Tampa hasn't been great at home to start the Year but there historically a good home team the last two yeats they've won around 50 games.... YES i know they've lost Carl Crawfod but Matt Joyce came out of No where, Johnny Damon is having a pretty good year at the plate (only if he stays at DH and doesnt have to use his wimpy arm in the field)... Im really starting to lean rays but Indians have a really good price

WIth the caveat that anything can happen in a single game...

Tomlin has "phantom" surface stats.  To put it another way, when the folks who mark the initial numbers to offer the public, they look beyond "surface" stats such as W-L, and ERA.  And what underlying stats show is that Tomlin has been very lucky and is overdue for a correction.  (I can be much more specific, if asked.)

Price, on the other hand, has been a tad unluckly, believe it or not.

In short, Tomlin is trending down and Price is going the other way.

I've only discussed the SPs, of course, but SP's are by far the biggest factor in settling lines.

I do see some peoples points, that over the couse of the year Tampa will probably have a much better home record than Cleveland away. And Cleveland has probably started out the year playing better than they, are and also have some injuries, but I still think there is a lot of value there. Under doesnt look bad either.

RedPumpkin, I agree, but I have looked beyond surface stats, Tomlin has the best WHIP in the major leagues (I know this stat still isnt great, but far better than ERA or W/L which dont mean much), and also a much better OPS (a stat which I have found to have the best mathmatical correlation to runs scored). I am not saying you are wrong, there is a good chance that Tomlin will not continue to pitch this well, but so far he has looked good, so what stats exactly are you referring to?

Hi vegaspete.  WHIP is a surface stat, too.  Here's one example of the sort of stats I'm referring to:

(First a little background is necessary: Year after year, like clockwork, of all balls pu into play against pitchers, around 30% are for hits. Now, the total obviously will vary some for a pitcher who puts up a lot of Ks vs those who are "contact" pitchers--yet the percentage (30) does not vary much over the course of a given season.)

Tomlin's hit percentage right now for the season is a mere 18%.  (Price is at 31%)

That's just one example.  There are various other "under-the-surface-stats" that reveal a pitcher's (or a batter's, for that matter) true performance in regard to how he might perform over a longer run. 

But, as a caution, corrections may occur over a period of a bunch of games, and anything is possible in any single game. 

Best of luck!