MLB Plays 5/6

73-51-2 +25.11

CHICAGO CUBS  -128  (3.20/2.50)
 
Matt Garza's 4th start for the Cubs at home.  Tampa Bay was 32-16 in his home starts, 3.22 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, very good for the AL East.  Cubs are just 1-2 but could easily be 3-0...blown save top 9th vs PIT, errorfest in bad weather vs COL.  Garza has a 1.89 ERA at Wrigley so far, 3 quality starts, 28 k's in 19ip.  12 ip, 1 er, 16k's the 2 times I've backed him.  First time facing a Reds team that is just 6-6 on the road, and has a road vs righty batting avg of .212, by far their worst of the four splits.  Reds swept Cubs in Wrigley last August and took 6 of 7 overall at the Cubs last year, but this is their first trip as defending division champs with this group.  Edison Volquez is very good against the Cubs, 3-0 in 3 starts, 0.96 ERA but a 1.50 WHIP.  1.54 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 2 Wrigley starts, not a typo, that's what happens when you have exactly a 9-1 ratio of walks and hits to runs.  2 decent starts on the road this year, but the better one was at petco, and the other was 5.2 ip 3er in a loss at STL.  He might look good vs Cubs and on the road, but he's allowed a lot of baserunners and hasn't pitched deep, usually lasting 5-6 innings.  6+ road ERA in 5 starts last year, over 7 if you include a bad postseason start at Philly.

NEW YORK METS  -125  (2.50/2.00)

Mets 5-1 last 6 as a home fave, most of those unpopular.  Niese first start against the Dodgers, first home start since cashing as unpopular home fave vs ARZ and Galarraga.  Dodgers 0-3 in Kuroda's start at the Mets, 8.31 ERA and 2.15 WHIP in those games. 

BALTIMORE ORIOLES  -109  (2.18/2.00)

Now that the O's are back under .500 and even money units wise people are off the bandwagon.  Zach Britton has been awesome, Baltimore 5-1 in his starts (2.63 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), 3-0 at home (1.83/1.12)  This is his first time facing a team for the second time which combined with Baltimore's opening series sweep at Tampa keeps me from making this more than a normal sized play.  Shields has been great, but he's also off 26 innings in 3 dominant starts, some regression has to be coming.  He has a 4.94 career road ERA, 4.82/4.62/5.82 from 2008-2010, the 3 years Tampa has been good.  His career numbers at Camden Yards are solid, 3.71 ERA/1.20 WHIP.  8.69 ERA/1.69 WHIP/.333 BA against in 2 starts there last year.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES  -106  (2.12/2.00)

Two of the biggest home/away split guys going against each other.  Not the first time I have talked about backing Paul Maholm at home and going against Wandy Rodriguez on the road.

BOSTON RED SOX  -160  (2.40/1.50)

RANGERS -106  (2.12/2.00)

Texas is 62-35 at home since start of last year, 45-52 on the road, yet after being heavy consensus plays for their first ever division road trip as defending AL champs, are unpopular faves at home bc it is against the big bad Yankees.  Nova yet to have a road quality start in his brief career, and was hit hard by Texas in NY in April.