I have a hard time understanding the meaning of a "value" pick?!?!
Everytime i looke to fill out my picks for the day i would say 90% of the time i end up picking the favorite which obviously doesnt win as often as the line says it should.
Can anyone shed some light on the meaning of "value" when picking a Line to play?!?!
Value basically means that you determine the percentage of times thatTeam A will defeat Team B....there are many ways to arrive at this number...if the line gives you value, you bet the game. For example, tomorrow Philly is -240 and Washington is +230...If you think Washington can win this game 35% of the time you should play Washington.....even though you will lose this wager most of the time....the value is in playing the same way hundreds of time and coming out ahead...there is value in favorites as well.
People say there is no value in a losing play...I strongly disagree with this. Let's say we were going to flip a coin and I told you that I'd give you a choice.....you could pick heads and you'd get $51 or you could pick tails, and I'd give you $49 whatever you didn't pick you would pay me......we are going to flip exactly 100 times. I'd assume everybody and their mother would pick heads because they know that it is a long term winner....even though most know they could "lose" over just 100 flips. Picking heads is playing value and is correct.
An important note, value is determined before the game....the result of the game is basically irrelevant. And playing "value" is a very long term proposition in baseball. You could lose for a week or a month or a half a season. If you are playing it right, you should be profitable long term. Playing value isn't good for a quick score and it certainly isn't glamorous. In fact it's a grind and isn't especially fun but I do believe it is profitable. Finally, depending on the line there can be value on either team in a game...as I said, the value is determined prior to the game. Use the Philly/Nats game again....at -120 tomorrow there would be huge value on the Phils.....at +450 you would be a fool not to play the Nats.
Point is value is long term and in my opinion is the only reliable to show a profit. I know some disagree with me and that's OK. It's my belief.
Good luck with your plays this season 
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