SHIRLEY JESTER'S STATS FOR APRIL UNDERDOG PLAYS

I am providing the following information so that you can make an educated decision if you are thinking of wagering on an April Underdogs. These stats were compiled from the closing lines for April 2010 baseball games.

Bad teams don't know how bad they are, and good or great starting pitchers can be overbet in this month. This phenomenon can create many positive expectation wagers, especially when combined with sound baseball handicapping principles.

I am listing each each underdog "bracket" in increments of 10 cents.

 ENJOY!

LINE                  UNITS W/L     %ADVANTAGE

+1.00-1.09          +10.18                       +19.96%

+1.10-1.19           -2.00                         - 4.16%

+1.20-1.29           -1.58                          - 3.09%

+1.30-1.39           -.77                            -1.79%

+1.40-1.49         -16.39                          -34.14%

+1.50-1.59           -.59                             -1.90%

+1.60-1.69          +2.46                         +10.25%

+1.70-1.79          +1.98                         +22.00%

+1.80-1.89           +.27                          + 2.45%

+1.90-1.99           -3.18                         - 26.50%

+2.00+                +6.04                         +50.33%

What do these stats tell us if anything?

Well, as suspected, laying a big price in April is dangerous. If you are thinking about laying more than 1.58 your selection could be a bankroll destroyer, unless you have sound baseball handicapping principles to back up and support your wager.

Simply wagering on all underdogs in the month of April 2010, at a price of +1.50 or higher, yielded a profit of 6.98 units. If you possess any type of wageing skill at all, you certainly could have improved upon this result with ease.

Small underdogs, which are usually very live, showed a nice profit as well. Similarly wagering on small favorites could be a poor choice, unless you have the knowledge and skill to back it up. Simply wagering on all dogs of +1.00-1.29 yielded a profit of 6.60 units. Similarly, if you possess any inkling of wagering skill,  improvement upon this number should be a breeze.

My suggestion is to use thischart is to supplement your own selections throughout the month of April.

Baseball is the easiest sport to beat, and I'm sure some good handicappers will show their faces on this site in the weeks and months to come. Gamehunter is one I can recommend right out of the gate. If he chooses to post in here this season, you can't go wrong following this intelligent handicapper.

Good Luck   and let's PLAY BALL!

Shirley

What site are the lines from?

Do you honestly believe this tells us anything? or do you believe math has a memory?

KKTDOCT  Thank you

TERPNSKINS  Best of luck

LAS VEGAS LORD  Roght back at you.

Spartyy444   Since you believe the chart tells you absolutely nothing, my suggestion for you is to lay -1.58 and higher every opportunity you get, and to also never wager on any dog that closes between +1.00 - +1.19 during the month of April. Keep track, and tell us all how you did come May 1.

Does math have a memory? Yes, math has a memory, and also doesn't lie. The facts are what they are, you can look it up.

The lines used for this study were compiled from all of the Sportsbooks that roll off the tip of your tongue, Pinnacle, 5 dimes, betjamaica, etc. It was not at all unusual to obtain a better line than the closing number. In fact it was the norm.

My methodology understates the units won by wagering on the underdog in each category, assumming the following:

 1) you had access to more than a couple of books, and

 2) could market time your wagers and improve upon the closing number

Sparty444 : A better question you should have asked is the following:

Are these results statistically significant?

Instead of me telling you to get lost and figure it out yourself , I will provide my cordial reponse.

The answer is YES, if you look at 2 distinct populations, specifically  the +1.00-+1.19 population bracket and also the population  bracket of +1.50 and above.

These 2 populations have a large enough sample to take a negative event like wagering on baseball into a positive event in April 2010.

I will provide you with the number of games in the +1.00-+1.19 bracket (96) and the number of games in the +1.50 and up bracket (111).

As an excercise in statistical analysis, I am expecting you to use this data and provide this forum with the statistical significance this data displays and how confident you are in these results.

Please provide all in this room with the mean, standard deviation, and the variance, as well as the probability of each population showing a non-positive result. Fill the room with your genius. If you can do this successfully you will have provided this forum with an educational tool that we can perhaps use in making baseball wagers.

Best Wishes

Shirley

Most things have structure when you look backwards...its called finding structure amidst chaos.

Every game is a separate event....the odds of something happening in that event have nothing to do with the results of other games. Its just like roulette....just because red comes up 5 times in a row doesn't mean black is anymore likely to hit the next spin.

The data you posted has zero value on the same premise. A certain column such as 1 to 1.09 might have had an advantage last season...but it doesn't mean it will this season...why? Because each event is different and the results occur within their own parameters... what happened last season-last week-5 seconds ago doesn't impact the result.

Telling people to tail something such as this is ignorant. It just tells me clearly what your intentions are... you just want people to tail - follow and pay you for data that you pretend to be valuable.

I can promise one thing to posters here.... if you had a winning system you would not be sharing it here. And why would you? A true winning system in any sport would be worth millions of dollars. Why would you risk that type of return on a bunch of degenerate gamblers you don't know?

Long-Tu  thanks for keeping Spanky444 in line.

Be2Winn  Thanks and remember this is just a tool, not a selection method

Terpsnskins  Thank you for the nice comment.

Slovak  Have another beer or 2 or 3 or 24!

Spanky444: I didn't ask anyone to tail me, so your reference is (again) ignorant. I just provided the facts FOR ALL TO SEE. Before making a wager, this chart could perhaps show you where a bias might exist.

As far as gathering clients, stop already. I understand that you probably are employed by the covers staff, and that's OK, but to continually come up with your conspiracy theories borders on senility. Please, please keep taking your namenda medication.

I think I have provided something to the people in this room with something they have never seen in print before. I've never seen it, and I've been betting on April underdogs for many years now. If you're a good handicapper, this chart might add small percentage  to your overall advantage. This is a tool, not a selection method

We are all still waiting for you to provide the forum with the statistical analysis requested. Your lack of response on this request doesn't surprise me.I am guessing your math skills are non existent.

You're wrong about sharing winning information with the forum. I will let the members of the forum decide if my information is valuable or not, not you or any of your aliases. You said the same thing about my college BB selections, but I guess my record ended up speaking for itself, so you can only put your foot in your mouth (again).

As far as roulette goes, again your statement is WRONG!  No surprise again.

You obviously have never played a biased roulette wheel, or are unfamiliar with "crossover patterns",  or even The Eudaemonic Pie. This is where you start googling, because you don't have a clue what I'm talking about.

As far as millions of dollars for information that is meaningful, it reqires large wagers and alot of risk to make that kind of  money betting on sports. I know of only a handful of people that might consider making 20K+ wagers per game, that would be necessary to attain a wealth of millions of dollars from sports wagering. Most of these people probably don't even know their net worth to the nearest million, and wouldn't be at all interested.

I really have no problem sharing what I think could be insightful information to members of this forum. I have picked up some good info on this site, so why not share a little. We haven't noticed any lines changes by the books, have you?

I also find it interesting that you refer to the people on this site as degenerate gamblers. I'm sure you probably put your foot in your mouth again. I'm sure everyone appreciates you well thought out comment.

Why don't we perform a test. Post all of your plays in this room for the month of April disregarding my chart from last year. Then come May 1, we can see your results vs my chart, and see if taking a peek might have improved your selections a bit.

The problem for you is that I can tear apart your logic if I want to, and debunk your nonsensical statements, while still providing the forum with perhaps a tidbit of new advantage gambling information.

I'm sorry if this bothers you, but isn't that  the purpose of this forum. .

Shirley

You couldn't tear apart wet paper towel

Here is the Shirley file:

1.Began posting random games and was past posting results to pad record

2. Claimed to be some sort of totals expert...gave the site a lame song and dance and then crashed and burned

3. Came back with level 2 picks that then crashed and burned

4. Started posting sides and had a nice run...even though initially claimed they didn't play many sides...they were a totals expert.

5. Milked the streak for what it was worth and started talking about some secret membership they were apart of

6. Now has some sort of awesome baseball system as well

Am sorry but your transparent as a window ... I suggest you get some therapy...pretending to be a woman for months cannot be a healthy mindset

Vixen321  Your comments are appreciated, and most certainly I should follow your advice, but I get a kick out of kicking Spanky444 in the butt. It's not too hard to show his lack of knowledge in certain areas. As I'm typing this, he is probably googling like crazy. .

I can't post BB picks here, but on May 1 or thereabouts I will surmarize the distribution of all underdogs plays and their respective results. Looking back is easy, looking forward is not.

Shirley

Bigzz   Thanks for the support.

  Spanky444 :

All I have done on the covers site is to predict games at over a 60% level since my first posting. Perhaps this is what bothers you, Get over it. If you don't possess this talent it's not my fault, or anyone elses on this site. I know many people with this skill, it's no big deal.

If you stick to your small world of Michigan basketball, where you actually have some knowledge, you'll do fine. You seem to be out of your league when discussing anything else with other members in their threads.

It's pretty funny as I have not ever heard a word from you to educate the members of this forum, interesting. Why waste your time on us degenerates (as you say), right?

I'm still waiting for your answer to the statistical analysis requested of you.

1) The members of this forum are all awaiting your eloquent response.

2) Your lack of response shows off your lack of knowledge. It's not something you can look up in a book or google, so you are completely lost.

3) The fact is, you're not that smart, and I  suspect you're a lifetime losing gambler. This is your own fault. If you followed train69 you would be a winner. How hard is that?

4) The fact that I am a winning lifetime player, and pay taxes on my gambling winnings every year, bothers you even more.

5) Like I said debunking you is childs play, Spanky444.

Did I say I have a BB system anywhere in this thread? All I am providing is a tool for research. I wager on games, but on my own terms. I'm not here to teach you handicapping 101. Learn to make your own lines, come up with your own ideas, and beat the game on your own. 

Why does the covers staff employ you anyway? I suspect that you are also one of the handicappers on this site that gets threatened when anyone pops in here that can actually win 

Don't worry, I'm not posting our BB picks here as I'm way too busy for that. Today is a day I always take off to watch opening day games. You can breathe easier now.

Just follow the April references, and see what they end up doing. Actually, I welcome your keeping track on a daily basis. If it duplicates last years results, you can claim the discovery of this information. for all I care. Maybe this information will become your legacy.

Until you can answer the statistical question correctly and prove to everyone in here that you have a brain and are not all mouth, from this point on I will only respond in the following manner to your posts

SPANKY444

Shirley

Camicon Ditto

Shirley

Tooez  You are most welcome!

Shirley

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=100946211&page=2

Post #29 is a Covers classic

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=100954618

Your level 2 picks

SPANKY444

We are all still waiting for your statistical analysis? WELL?

Shirley

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=12&sub=100985135

The members only website and club

Seriously now. The Yankeess have truly made it a 6 inning game now with their improved bullpen. This is just something to keep in mind if wagering against them.

There will be many times when they will be over -2.00, but it will probably be withh CC on the mound vs a weak team. He goes so deep into the game, you can almost always count on him going 7 innings later in the year. Just an observation, and nothing really enlightening here.

Shirley