Any love for the Pirates OVER 67 wins?

To the naked eye, it's easy to say Pittsburgh is due for another shit season by their history and by simply looking at that pitching staff.  While it is their glaring weakness, I like what I see in some other spots on the squad and think they can easily get 70+ wins in what I think is a bit of an overrated division.

 

C- Snyder/Doumit- Neither of these guys are defensive specialists, and neither of these guys are coming off the best of years, but I can see improvement with both of these guys(it can't get any worse, right?).  Both of them have some pop and if they can handle the split role(looks to me like both will be getting a decent amount of starts), it would be nice to have a power threat near the bottom of the lineup for 162 games. 

 

1st- Overbay- When I first saw he was to be their new starting 1st baseman, my first thoughts were "Old, broken down fuck."  Looking more I see he is only 34, and while he isn't exactly a guy I would want playing 1st for my team, he has always consistently hit and he brings another bat you have to respect in the middle of the lineup.  His declining average of late is a concern, but he can't really hurt the team if he can be in the .260 area with his usual 15-20 HR and reasonable amount of walks.  He also has been working closely with Hurtle and Ritchie and has embraced the role as a veteran "teacher." 

 

2nd- Walker.  Here is a guy I really like.  He had his ups and downs in the minor leagues.  He got bounced around a bit, dealt with some injuries, and a few years back adopted a new hitting attitude(you don't "walk" your way to the majors) which some thought would be his demise.  After finally getting a real chance, he ran with it leading the NL in RBI's after the all star break in 2010.  He still didn't walk much, but he cut down swinging at bad pitches, and walked more towards the very end of the season.  He will be batting somewhere near the top of the lineup and I think he has the stuff to be a nice player.  His defense is so-so, but I think a lot of his average play had to do with being bounced around for a few years prior to becoming a starter at 2nd base in the big leagues.  I think he improves big time this year and overall rounds out his game.

 

SS-  Cedeno.  Last year, I read an article about this kid.  It was a sabermetric article that pretty much said that after breaking down every player in the league in every aspect, Ronny Cedeno was the absolute WORST everyday player in the entire big leagues after factoring in everything.  So I had that impression of him going into the season.  What I saw with my eyes though was a guy with a really good glove and a rocket arm and with the state of SS in the league, an AVERAGE bat.  Maybe I'm wrong, but there could be worst things to have at the position than an average bat and a great glove. 

 

3rd- Alvarez- Young kid with great pop in his bat.  He had his ups and downs as a rookie, but showed glimpses of what he could be.  He has every chance to morph into a star batting cleanup.  Any improvement + a full healthy season and we are talking a 30+ HR guy at age 24.  Needs to work on his defense though.  That's the glaring weakness in his game, and probably why he will be playing 1st base in the near future. 

 

LF- Tabata- Here is another kid I really like.  Young, fast, and built like a tank.  He flies around the outfield, and batted .300 in his rookie campaign in over half a season.  Every step in the minors he improved his game, and continued that trend as he stepped into the majors last year.  Hard worker, good arm, steals bases, and should be an impact player possibly leading off.  He's already swiped a few bags in spring training so running seems to be a priority and 30+ SB at the top of the order with McCutchen, Alvarez, and Jones batting behind him should turn into a nice amount of runs.

 

CF- McCutchen- A budding star and legit 20-30 guy.  Fast as hell in the outfield and coupled with Tabata in LF, they should do good things out there.  His defense isn't the greatest, but his raw talent and speed at tracking balls makes up for that, imo.  Will only get better out there, and at the plate, they are talking about batting him third.

 

RF- Jones-  After a rookie season where he murdered the ball, he fell back a little bit last year.  It's easy to knock his falling batting average, but from what I saw, a lot of that had to do with the shift teams used against him.  Many times he hit missiles into right field that the SS handled and got the out.  Obviously, he has to adapt and learn to not rely so much on pulling the ball, and if he can, I can see his average dip back up without losing too much of his raw power.  The acquisition of Matt Diaz is also of note.  He is a proven hitter who scalds left handed pitching and is a feasible backup out in RF for exactly that.  He should also get time on the field when Overbay gets a day off(allowing Jones to slide to 1st). 

 

There isn't much I can really say except they can be average if a few things happen.  One, they need a few of the younger guys to step up.  Guys like McDonald, Lincoln, Morton, and Olsen were all prospects that never really popped.  They have the skills and talent to make something happen and their play will be the difference of an atrocious pitching team, or a team that is just good enough to get some wins.  Second, guys like Maholm and Ohlendoff need to forget last year, and pitch to the their potential.  Maholm has shown he can be an 2nd tier ace in the past, but is coming off a terrible year.  He has a nice arsenal of pitches, and as long as he can throw strikes and keep hitters off balance with his junk, his ERA can float closer to where it probably belongs(4.00).  Ohlendorf was a victim of lack of run support and terrible luck as opposed to bad pitching last year(dude was like 1-13 on the year with a reasonable ERA), so he needs to shake that off.  One last X factor is the play of Kevin Correia.  He had his share of ups and downs with SF and SD as both a reliever and a starter, but like Maholm and Ohlendorf is coming off a terrible year.  He would be a huge addition and possibly their ace if he can revert to the stats of some of his better past years.  Not to make excuses for the guy, but I think a lot of last year's woe for Correia were personal problems.  I vaguely remember him pitching okay off of a really good year, and then I believe his brother passed away.  Could be a coincidence or my memory being off, but he wasn't the same after that. 

 

I can't really say this bullpen is "good" as they aren't very deep at all, but I can say that they do have a small crew of pitchers that can protect a 4-2 into the 7th inning if need be, and at the end of the day that is one of the more important things for a bullpen to have.  Hanrahan is a strikeout machine closing things out, and should be okay if he can handle the pressure of being the stopper.  Evan Meek is coming off a real solid year, and at age 27 should be in his prime.  Chris Resop is a guy who has had success in the minors as a starter, and is a solid K guy working in the pen.  After that, it gets a little sketchy, but a few of the younger guys who may not make it as a starter(McDonald, Morton) could make an impact in long relief.

 

At the end of the day, I might be a little optomistic about a lot of these guys, and a few of the "iffy" guys might not step up like I "think" they can, but this team looks a lot better than the 67 win teams of Pirate's past.