These are things I think about every day before I bet, feel free to add anything useful.
1- There are 30 teams & 162 games per regular season. That's 2,430 games to bet on. And 1st 5 innings, and run lines, and totals, etc. My point is, it's a long season, treat it that way.
2- The best teams in this league win 100 games, the worst teams still win 60. As a %, that means the elite win roughly 60% of the time, the garbage still win roughly 40% of the time. Think long and hard about this.
The problem is if you want to bet the Yankees or the Phillies of this league you have to pay to do it. If you lay 2-1 on the Yankees night in & night out, and they only win 3 out of 5 games, guess what? You lose. STAY AWAY FROM BIG FAVORITES. I rarely bet anything above -150. But I'll take +200 anytime I think I have a shot. If I'm right better than 33% of the time with dogs of +200 or better I win. Do the math, it matters.
3 - You can keep winning while betting a streak, but you can only win once betting against it. Baseball more than any other sport will see teams go on longer than usual winning or losing streaks, don't get in the way of one. Bet with a streak or stay away.
4 - There's more to this than pitching. I don't care if Cy Young himself is on the mound - if the team you are backing can't score, they usually won't win. Look at everything, not just the starting pitcher.
5 - Closers suck. Period. They will drive you nuts. Starters are considered good if they can go 6 or 7 in this league, the bullpens matter a lot. Pay attention, or just bet the 1st 5 innings. Stop crying, it's a 9 inning game, you haven't won shit until it's a final.
6 - Look at your final card. I can't tell you how many times I've seen guys bet 4 games laying so much chalk that if they lose just one game their profit is gone. It's a grind, you are much better off going 1-1 with dogs and picking up the juice than going 3-1 with big favorites and breaking even.
7- You are betting too many games to make money - bullshit. If you have an edge, make the bet. Some nights it's one game, some nights it's twelve games, who cares.
8- If you ever find yourself saying something like "there's no way the Yankees will lose 2 in a row to so & so", find another hobby, perhaps knitting or ballroom dancing, it will be cheaper. In fact, if your head tells you there's no way something will happen, there's a real good chance it will.
9 - If you aren't enjoying yourself, or if you are on a cold streak, take a few days off. Tomorrow is another day, clear your head.
10- Don't bet what you don't have, and don't chase after your losses. If you can't pay your bills, you don't belong here.
Hope this helps. ![]()







