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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: MLB picks, Sunday, August 1, 2010
kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/1/2010 12:42:34 PM
Overall YTD: 57-60, +9.69 units
ML Favorites: 12-8, +3.23 units
ML Dogs: 15-21,
+0.54 units
RL: 11-10,
+6.01 units
Totals: 21-20, -3.09 units
Team Totals: 2-0, +5.00 units
First Five Innings: 0-1, -
1.00 units
Parlays:
0-1, -1.00 units

Freaking Brian Sabean. I was OK with getting this Lopez cat so long as all we were giving up was Joe Martinez, although I wasn't happy with it. I figured it was the worst it could be -- a decent starter like Martinez when we have a plethora of them.

But to give up John Bowker as well?! EFF YOU BRIAN SABEAN. What a freaking joke. A serviceable long man/marginal SP AND a AAAA slugger for a short reliever? That's a recipe for failure, something Brian Sabean knows plenty about.

On to today, let's start the month solid:

Early games:

1. Atlanta Braves/Cincinnati Reds OVER 8.5 (-106) -- Back to the well on this series. Volquez's was lights out in his first start back from the DL but his last two starts have resulted in 6 ER in 2.1 innings and 4 ER in 3.2 innings, walking four both times. He's got a WHIP of 2 during his last 3 games. Hanson meanwhile got rocked for eight (yes, eight) ERs in 1.2 innings the only other time he faced this CIN lineup back in May. While his ERA is actually about 0.70 better on the road, his WHIP shows the true story: 1.46 WHIP on the road. I'm hoping one of these teams can get out of hand early and we get this OVER taken care of early so I don't have to sweat.

2. Detroit Tigers/Boston Red Sox OVER 8 (-110), 1.55 to win 1.5 -- Here's some things I like about this play: Verlander's 's ERA is almost 2 points higher on the road (yikes, 4.80 to 2.65!) and he pretty reliably gives up 3-4 runs in his road starts. His WHIP on the road is 1.30 compared to 1.12 at home and his OBP against is about .30 higher, so hopefully that means more baserunners than normal for him today. Bucholz strangely enough has not been very impressive in Fenway this year, where he has a 3.08 ERA compared to a 2.36 ERA on the road. His WHIP is also higher at home as well (1.35 v. 1.18). If things go as they have all season, then we get about 6-7 runs between these squads before we get to the respective bullpens for each squad. Some of Boston's hitters have good career numbers against Verlander -- .400 for Youkilis, .300 for Ortiz, .302 for Victor Martinez, .333 for JD Drew, and .240 for Adrian Beltre.

More to come...
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#2
Posted: 8/1/2010 12:43:18 PM
3. Tampa Bay Rays RL -1.5 (+235), 1 to win 2.35 -- Just a hunch that the Rays come out on top big today. CC's thrown his two highest pitch count games of the year these last two outings for him (120 and 123). CC is a workhorse but we might see a tad of a hangover from him here, especially if the Rays can get to him early. Rays actually have good numbers against CC too (.250 for Aybar, .314 for Bartlett, .292 for Crawford, .500 for Longoria, .429 for BJ Upton, .462 for Zobrist). Only one terrible against him is Pena batting .091. A-Rod has the day off today so that's one less bat for "Big Game James" to deal with. I think that this price for Tampa Bay is a little low, they probably shouldn't be any bigger dog than +110 or so to anyone at home. Reverse runline has value at +235 in my mind here.

4. St. Louis Cardinals Team Total OVER 4.5 (+100), 2 to win 2 -- Duke's road ERA this year is 5.95 although its been 3.18 his last three (granted, against COL, MIL, and HOU, three teams not tearing the cover off the ball at that time). Duke hasn't gone over 6 innings pitched in 2 months, so we're gonna get at least 2-3 innings of Pittsburgh bullpen. St. Louis has excellent career numbers against Duke -- .333 for Greene, .462(!) for Holliday, .333 for LaRue, .357 for Miles, .308 for Molina, .471(!) for Pujols, and .278 for Winn. I'll take OVER 4.5 when the two top hitters on a team hit .462 and .471 against an opposing starter any day of the week.

5. Seattle Mariners/Minnesota Twins UNDER 8 (+105), 1.5 to win 1.58 -- Twins don't have a lot of experience with French, Mauer is out, and Liriano has been straight up dealing his last 3 games (3-0 with 0.83 ERA and 22 K's). Seattle struggles offensively against your league average pitcher, nevermind someone as talented as Liriano. Against Liriano historically, M's hitters struggle: Lopez is .111, Gutierrez is .182, Branyan is .162, Figgins is .000, Johnson is .000. Only Ichiro has success against him with a .353 average.

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#3
Posted: 8/1/2010 12:44:12 PM
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#4
Posted: 8/1/2010 12:44:31 PM
Like Cain tonight but gonna have to dig a little deeper into the numbers before I make a decision on that one.
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#5
Posted: 8/1/2010 12:44:54 PM
Good luck today CM
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#6
Posted: 8/1/2010 12:45:37 PM
good luck, Kapono -on the first 2 overs myself
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#7
Posted: 8/1/2010 12:47:24 PM
Cain is 0-8 lifetime against the Dodgers



That has to change sometime soon, no? Even looking objectively at it statistically, a good pitcher like Cain shouldn't be losing 8 straight games against any squad. A price of -110 for Cain is not bad at all given how hot the Gigantes are.
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#8
Posted: 8/1/2010 12:48:30 PM

BOL Kapono.   been fading millwood and taking the over when he pitches and it has been quite profitable! 

come on college bball

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#9
Posted: 8/1/2010 12:50:01 PM
Couple of price changes cause they moved since I did my write-ups but before I hit submit on my bets:

1. Atlanta Braves/Cincinnati Reds OVER 8.5 (-103), 2 to win 2.06
2. Detroit Tigers/Boston Red Sox OVER 8 (-101), 1.52 to win 1.5
3. Tampa Bay Rays RL -1.5 (+235), 1 to win 2.35
4. St. Louis Cardinals Team Total OVER 4.5 (+100), 2 to win 2
5. Seattle Mariners/Minnesota Twins UNDER 8 (+105), 1.5 to win 1.58
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#10
Posted: 8/1/2010 12:52:47 PM
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#11
Posted: 8/1/2010 12:52:49 PM
rather, Pure (STRAIGHT EDGE MEANS IM BETTER THAN YOU ), shap -- thanks for the kind words

BU -- I looked at that game too but I just didn't want to have money on these two garbage squads for two games in a row. It was painful enough following the box score yesterday, could care less about today's game but if I was gonna play it, it'd be a clear OVER for me
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#12
Posted: 8/1/2010 12:53:07 PM
ghost --
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#13
Posted: 8/1/2010 1:05:07 PM
Kap I also thought it was a high price to pay for a pitcher that is only going to face one batter a game or 2,if you have to leftys in a row,lol but Colo.used him against Bonds,he would come in and pitch to him and that was it,back in the clubhouse.
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#14
Posted: 8/1/2010 1:18:57 PM
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#15
Posted: 8/1/2010 1:19:14 PM
JEG -- exactly my complaints. Bowker had clear potential and Martinez, while not lighting it up, wasn't bad. To give up both for a freaking middle reliever? Another terrible decision in a long line of them from Bochy.
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#16
Posted: 8/1/2010 1:19:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

JEG -- exactly my complaints. Bowker had clear potential and Martinez, while not lighting it up, wasn't bad. To give up both for a freaking middle reliever? Another terrible decision in a long line of them from Bochy.


From Sabean, that is
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#17
Posted: 8/1/2010 1:20:13 PM
GL Kapono!
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#18
Posted: 8/1/2010 1:23:36 PM
Happy Kane brought up this Stat with Cain vs Dodgers! I mean this is there best OPP. Dodgers are avg 2 runs a game since the break.

I think its deeper then just the pitching staff its the pitching coach. The Hitting coach and even Torre.

BEST OF LUCK
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#19
Posted: 8/1/2010 1:25:13 PM
Nice write-ups bro
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#20
Posted: 8/1/2010 1:30:52 PM
masjes, KID

LTE -- I love hearing stats like that about the Dodgers

Viet -- thanks man
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#21
Posted: 8/1/2010 1:50:23 PM
IM ON DODGERS!!!! LETS GET EM!!! AVOID THE SWEEP!!!!
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#22
Posted: 8/1/2010 1:53:28 PM
gl kap
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#23
Posted: 8/1/2010 2:05:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



From Sabean, that is
i've always thought that Sabean had planted a mongolian candidate with that Colletti guy here in LA..now i'm sure of it, pretty sneaky..BOL ot you kap, those late games always seem like murder to me..
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#24
Posted: 8/1/2010 2:22:47 PM
9 baserunners in 3 innings in the ATL/CIN game and only 1 run. That will KILL an over.
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#25
Posted: 8/1/2010 2:22:50 PM
Giving him a middle relief title is over doing what he does,isnt he just a guy that comes in to get the other teams best lefthander hitter at a important point in game? Going to have to look up his stats and see how many innings he has this year. 
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