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[MLB Betting] Topic: MLB picks, Sunday, August 1, 2010 |
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kaponofor3 |
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#1 Posted: 8/1/2010 12:42:34 PM
ML Favorites: 12-8, +3.23 units
ML Dogs: 15-21, +0.54 units
RL: 11-10, +6.01 units
Totals: 21-20, -3.09 units
Team Totals: 2-0, +5.00 units
First Five Innings: 0-1, -1.00 units
Parlays: 0-1, -1.00 units
Freaking Brian Sabean. I was OK with getting this Lopez cat so long as all we were giving up was Joe Martinez, although I wasn't happy with it. I figured it was the worst it could be -- a decent starter like Martinez when we have a plethora of them.
But to give up John Bowker as well?! EFF YOU BRIAN SABEAN. What a freaking joke. A serviceable long man/marginal SP AND a AAAA slugger for a short reliever? That's a recipe for failure, something Brian Sabean knows plenty about.
On to today, let's start the month solid:
Early games:
1. Atlanta Braves/Cincinnati Reds OVER 8.5 (-106) -- Back to the well on this series. Volquez's was lights out in his first start back from the DL but his last two starts have resulted in 6 ER in 2.1 innings and 4 ER in 3.2 innings, walking four both times. He's got a WHIP of 2 during his last 3 games. Hanson meanwhile got rocked for eight (yes, eight) ERs in 1.2 innings the only other time he faced this CIN lineup back in May. While his ERA is actually about 0.70 better on the road, his WHIP shows the true story: 1.46 WHIP on the road. I'm hoping one of these teams can get out of hand early and we get this OVER taken care of early so I don't have to sweat.
2. Detroit Tigers/Boston Red Sox OVER 8 (-110), 1.55 to win 1.5 -- Here's some things I like about this play: Verlander's 's ERA is almost 2 points higher on the road (yikes, 4.80 to 2.65!) and he pretty reliably gives up 3-4 runs in his road starts. His WHIP on the road is 1.30 compared to 1.12 at home and his OBP against is about .30 higher, so hopefully that means more baserunners than normal for him today. Bucholz strangely enough has not been very impressive in Fenway this year, where he has a 3.08 ERA compared to a 2.36 ERA on the road. His WHIP is also higher at home as well (1.35 v. 1.18). If things go as they have all season, then we get about 6-7 runs between these squads before we get to the respective bullpens for each squad. Some of Boston's hitters have good career numbers against Verlander -- .400 for Youkilis, .300 for Ortiz, .302 for Victor Martinez, .333 for JD Drew, and .240 for Adrian Beltre.
More to come...
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kaponofor3 |
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#2 Posted: 8/1/2010 12:43:18 PM
4. St. Louis Cardinals Team
Total OVER 4.5 (+100), 2 to win 2 -- Duke's road ERA this year is 5.95
although its been 3.18 his last three (granted, against COL, MIL, and
HOU, three teams not tearing the cover off the ball at that time). Duke
hasn't gone over 6 innings pitched in 2 months, so we're gonna get at
least 2-3 innings of Pittsburgh bullpen. St. Louis has excellent career
numbers against Duke -- .333 for Greene, .462(!) for Holliday, .333 for
LaRue, .357 for Miles, .308 for Molina, .471(!) for Pujols, and .278
for Winn. I'll take OVER 4.5 when the two top hitters on a team hit
.462 and .471 against an opposing starter any day of the week.
5. Seattle Mariners/Minnesota Twins UNDER
8 (+105), 1.5 to win 1.58 -- Twins don't have a lot of experience with
French, Mauer is out, and Liriano has been straight up dealing his last
3 games (3-0 with 0.83 ERA and 22 K's). Seattle struggles offensively
against your league average pitcher, nevermind someone as talented as
Liriano. Against Liriano historically, M's hitters struggle: Lopez is
.111, Gutierrez is .182, Branyan is .162, Figgins is .000, Johnson is
.000. Only Ichiro has success against him with a .353 average.
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ratherBgambling |
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#3 Posted: 8/1/2010 12:44:12 PM  |
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kaponofor3 |
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#4 Posted: 8/1/2010 12:44:31 PM
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PureButta |
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#5 Posted: 8/1/2010 12:44:54 PM  |
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#6 Posted: 8/1/2010 12:45:37 PM |
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#7 Posted: 8/1/2010 12:47:24 PM
That has to change sometime soon, no? Even looking objectively at it statistically, a good pitcher like Cain shouldn't be losing 8 straight games against any squad. A price of -110 for Cain is not bad at all given how hot the Gigantes are.
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BetsUnlimited |
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#8 Posted: 8/1/2010 12:48:30 PM BOL Kapono. been fading millwood and taking the over when he pitches and it has been quite profitable!
come on college bball  |
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#9 Posted: 8/1/2010 12:50:01 PM
1. Atlanta Braves/Cincinnati Reds OVER
8.5 (-103), 2 to win 2.06
2. Detroit Tigers/Boston Red Sox
OVER 8 (-101), 1.52 to win 1.5
3. Tampa Bay Rays RL
-1.5 (+235), 1 to win 2.35
4. St. Louis Cardinals Team
Total OVER 4.5 (+100), 2 to win 2
5. Seattle Mariners/Minnesota Twins UNDER
8 (+105), 1.5 to win 1.58
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#10 Posted: 8/1/2010 12:52:47 PM |
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#11 Posted: 8/1/2010 12:52:49 PM  ), shap -- thanks for the kind words
BU -- I looked at that game too but I just didn't want to have money on these two garbage squads for two games in a row. It was painful enough following the box score yesterday, could care less about today's game but if I was gonna play it, it'd be a clear OVER for me
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#12 Posted: 8/1/2010 12:53:07 PM 
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#13 Posted: 8/1/2010 1:05:07 PM |
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#14 Posted: 8/1/2010 1:18:57 PM |
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#15 Posted: 8/1/2010 1:19:14 PM
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#16 Posted: 8/1/2010 1:19:28 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
JEG -- exactly my complaints. Bowker had clear potential and Martinez, while not lighting it up, wasn't bad. To give up both for a freaking middle reliever? Another terrible decision in a long line of them from Bochy.
From Sabean, that is
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#17 Posted: 8/1/2010 1:20:13 PM |
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#18 Posted: 8/1/2010 1:23:36 PM
I think its deeper then just the pitching staff its the pitching coach. The Hitting coach and even Torre.
BEST OF LUCK
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#19 Posted: 8/1/2010 1:25:13 PM
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#20 Posted: 8/1/2010 1:30:52 PM
LTE -- I love hearing stats like that about the Dodgers
Viet -- thanks man
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#21 Posted: 8/1/2010 1:50:23 PM
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#22 Posted: 8/1/2010 1:53:28 PM |
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#23 Posted: 8/1/2010 2:05:27 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
From Sabean, that is
i've always thought that Sabean had planted a mongolian candidate with that Colletti guy here in LA..now i'm sure of it, pretty sneaky..BOL ot you kap, those late games always seem like murder to me.. |
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#24 Posted: 8/1/2010 2:22:47 PM
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#25 Posted: 8/1/2010 2:22:50 PM |
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