Overall YTD: 53-57, +11.96 units ML Favorites: 11-8, +1.73 units
ML Dogs: 15-20, +2.54 units
RL: 10-9, +5.19units
Totals: 17-14, +2.50 units Team Totals: 1-0, +2.00 units First Five Innings: 0-1, -1.00 units Parlays: 0-1, -1.00 units
Good day yesterday, hope to keep it rolling today. I'd like to send a shout-out to the "world's best capper" who covers likes to prevent from us winning picks. "Bubba", that Dodgers/Padres OVER was a straight fade of you, and I thank you for that!
Morning plays:
1. Detroit Tigers/Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 (-105), 2.1 to win 2 2. New York Mets/St. Louis CardinalsOVER 8.5 (-103), 2.06 to win 2
Looking at the ATL/WAS game right now, will potentially have a play and some rationale for my plays in a bit.
Best of luck to everyone today, hope we all have profitable days!
Overall YTD: 53-57, +11.96 units ML Favorites: 11-8, +1.73 units
ML Dogs: 15-20, +2.54 units
RL: 10-9, +5.19units
Totals: 17-14, +2.50 units Team Totals: 1-0, +2.00 units First Five Innings: 0-1, -1.00 units Parlays: 0-1, -1.00 units
Good day yesterday, hope to keep it rolling today. I'd like to send a shout-out to the "world's best capper" who covers likes to prevent from us winning picks. "Bubba", that Dodgers/Padres OVER was a straight fade of you, and I thank you for that!
Morning plays:
1. Detroit Tigers/Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 (-105), 2.1 to win 2 2. New York Mets/St. Louis CardinalsOVER 8.5 (-103), 2.06 to win 2
Looking at the ATL/WAS game right now, will potentially have a play and some rationale for my plays in a bit.
Best of luck to everyone today, hope we all have profitable days!
1. Washington batting averages against Lowe: Desmond .500, Guzman .615, Harris .294, Kennedy .278, Morgan .538, Zimmerman .273
2. Atlanta batting averages against Olsen: Diaz .440, Infante .375, Chipper Jones .520 (!), McCann .231, Prado .556
3. Lowe's last outing resulted in him throwing 114 pitches, his second most on the year. His year high in pitches was 119 on June 2 at home against the Phillies. He pitched 5 days later on the road against the might Arizona Diamondbacks offense and got ripped for 7 ER's in 4 innings. Similar spot here -- lot of pitches, 5 days later he pitches again, on the road against a "questionable" offense (who has some guys who hit him hard). Hoping we see lightning strike twice.
4. Olsen is getting his first start since May 21. It's always tough to come right off the DL and start throwing bullets and embarrassing guys, especially when they have historically performed well against you. Things could get out of hand early for Olsen
1. Washington batting averages against Lowe: Desmond .500, Guzman .615, Harris .294, Kennedy .278, Morgan .538, Zimmerman .273
2. Atlanta batting averages against Olsen: Diaz .440, Infante .375, Chipper Jones .520 (!), McCann .231, Prado .556
3. Lowe's last outing resulted in him throwing 114 pitches, his second most on the year. His year high in pitches was 119 on June 2 at home against the Phillies. He pitched 5 days later on the road against the might Arizona Diamondbacks offense and got ripped for 7 ER's in 4 innings. Similar spot here -- lot of pitches, 5 days later he pitches again, on the road against a "questionable" offense (who has some guys who hit him hard). Hoping we see lightning strike twice.
4. Olsen is getting his first start since May 21. It's always tough to come right off the DL and start throwing bullets and embarrassing guys, especially when they have historically performed well against you. Things could get out of hand early for Olsen
cover -- yeah I saw that one too, haven't moved on in depth to the later games but it definitely doesn't look right to me. Given Ubaldo's last 6 starts (runs scored by opposing teams on Ubaldo during that span: 6, 6, 1, 7, 4), there's no way he should be laying higher than -250 to ANYONE, even the Pirates
cover -- yeah I saw that one too, haven't moved on in depth to the later games but it definitely doesn't look right to me. Given Ubaldo's last 6 starts (runs scored by opposing teams on Ubaldo during that span: 6, 6, 1, 7, 4), there's no way he should be laying higher than -250 to ANYONE, even the Pirates
I like how these pirates are swinging the bats and running the bases. This could be very irritating to a pitcher trying to right the ship. Line just went to +240. I have a feeling it will continue to go in that direction.
I like the over in mets/cards too. Those pitchers will be gassed from last night. Albert may be out of the lineup after tweeking his hammy late last night though.
I'm on the the was/atl game too. Just can't trust the tigers to score right now.
I like how these pirates are swinging the bats and running the bases. This could be very irritating to a pitcher trying to right the ship. Line just went to +240. I have a feeling it will continue to go in that direction.
I like the over in mets/cards too. Those pitchers will be gassed from last night. Albert may be out of the lineup after tweeking his hammy late last night though.
I'm on the the was/atl game too. Just can't trust the tigers to score right now.
1. Total bullpen pitchers used by both teams last game: 14(!) Tired bullpens could lead to lots of runs if either starter gets in trouble early.
2. Dickey has thrown his three highest pitch counts in his last five outings: 115, 119, and 117. He only threw 70 in his last start but its possible we see some residual tiredness as a result, even though its impact is somewhat lessened given he's a knuckleballer. But, his leaving last game with a potential injury might factor in as well.
3. Significant under trends in this game lead me to believe we'll see a little bit of a regression to the mean.
1. Total bullpen pitchers used by both teams last game: 14(!) Tired bullpens could lead to lots of runs if either starter gets in trouble early.
2. Dickey has thrown his three highest pitch counts in his last five outings: 115, 119, and 117. He only threw 70 in his last start but its possible we see some residual tiredness as a result, even though its impact is somewhat lessened given he's a knuckleballer. But, his leaving last game with a potential injury might factor in as well.
3. Significant under trends in this game lead me to believe we'll see a little bit of a regression to the mean.
1. Price is an under machine when he is favored above -200, as is the case today.
2. Umpire Hickox's combined O/U in his last 16 games with these two squads: 11-3-2
3. Peralta may or may not be there in time for the game, but I don't know if you want to be relying on a new teammate who has had no time to prepare against a dominant left hander like Price.
4. Price is an absolute beast at home. Total runs against this year: 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 0, 3. Average runs scored by teams against Price at home: 1.75/game.
5. Detroit's bats have gone pretty quiet recently, and I don't really believe that David Price is the type of opposing pitcher who would allow them to heat up. Big, strong, tall lefty who throws gas usually is not a recipe for offensive success, especially on the road.
1. Price is an under machine when he is favored above -200, as is the case today.
2. Umpire Hickox's combined O/U in his last 16 games with these two squads: 11-3-2
3. Peralta may or may not be there in time for the game, but I don't know if you want to be relying on a new teammate who has had no time to prepare against a dominant left hander like Price.
4. Price is an absolute beast at home. Total runs against this year: 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 0, 3. Average runs scored by teams against Price at home: 1.75/game.
5. Detroit's bats have gone pretty quiet recently, and I don't really believe that David Price is the type of opposing pitcher who would allow them to heat up. Big, strong, tall lefty who throws gas usually is not a recipe for offensive success, especially on the road.
Wow the Pirates reverse run line against Ubaldo is +425
In his last six games, the Rockies have lost three of them (all as favorites), and two of those losses would have resulted in the reverse run line hitting (against the Phillies on 7/24/10 and against the Gigantes on 7/3/10.)
Wow the Pirates reverse run line against Ubaldo is +425
In his last six games, the Rockies have lost three of them (all as favorites), and two of those losses would have resulted in the reverse run line hitting (against the Phillies on 7/24/10 and against the Gigantes on 7/3/10.)
Wow the Pirates reverse run line against Ubaldo is +425
In his last six games, the Rockies have lost three of them (all as favorites), and two of those losses would have resulted in the reverse run line hitting (against the Phillies on 7/24/10 and against the Gigantes on 7/3/10.)
Wow the Pirates reverse run line against Ubaldo is +425
In his last six games, the Rockies have lost three of them (all as favorites), and two of those losses would have resulted in the reverse run line hitting (against the Phillies on 7/24/10 and against the Gigantes on 7/3/10.)
Overall YTD: 53-57, +11.96 units ML Favorites: 11-8, +1.73 units
ML Dogs: 15-20, +2.54 units
RL: 10-9, +5.19units
Totals: 17-14, +2.50 units Team Totals: 1-0, +2.00 units First Five Innings: 0-1, -1.00 units Parlays: 0-1, -1.00 units
Good day yesterday, hope to keep it rolling today. I'd like to send a shout-out to the "world's best capper" who covers likes to prevent from us winning picks. "Bubba", that Dodgers/Padres OVER was a straight fade of you, and I thank you for that!
Morning plays:
1. Detroit Tigers/Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 (-105), 2.1 to win 2 2. New York Mets/St. Louis CardinalsOVER 8.5 (-103), 2.06 to win 2
Looking at the ATL/WAS game right now, will potentially have a play and some rationale for my plays in a bit.
Best of luck to everyone today, hope we all have profitable days!
Good luck my friend - I'm on the under in Tampa as well - let's get it home
Overall YTD: 53-57, +11.96 units ML Favorites: 11-8, +1.73 units
ML Dogs: 15-20, +2.54 units
RL: 10-9, +5.19units
Totals: 17-14, +2.50 units Team Totals: 1-0, +2.00 units First Five Innings: 0-1, -1.00 units Parlays: 0-1, -1.00 units
Good day yesterday, hope to keep it rolling today. I'd like to send a shout-out to the "world's best capper" who covers likes to prevent from us winning picks. "Bubba", that Dodgers/Padres OVER was a straight fade of you, and I thank you for that!
Morning plays:
1. Detroit Tigers/Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 (-105), 2.1 to win 2 2. New York Mets/St. Louis CardinalsOVER 8.5 (-103), 2.06 to win 2
Looking at the ATL/WAS game right now, will potentially have a play and some rationale for my plays in a bit.
Best of luck to everyone today, hope we all have profitable days!
Good luck my friend - I'm on the under in Tampa as well - let's get it home
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