Why not Colorado

After the last few days I cannot help but feel that every ace is a sucker bet. Anyone with some objective reasoning why I shouldn't take this one?

I'll confess, I already locked it in anticipating an upward line move and the option to buy off.  So far it's gone from -151 to -155... 

After the last few days I cannot help but feel that every ace is a sucker bet. Anyone with some objective reasoning why I shouldn't take this one?

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Sanchez isn't exactly chopped liver.  And who is to guarantee that Ubaldo pitches a complete game.  People act like -150+ on the road is a bargain.  Not really with a pretty capable pitcher on the other side.  I think the line is pretty much right on so no play.  And the outcome of tonight has nothing to do with aces losing the last few days.  GL

Yes, I'm aware of the law of independent trials, and I agree that the line is about right rather than 'good value'.  My play on Col factored in what seems to be some relatively weak hitting on the part of the Marlins of late.  You're right though, Sanchez isn't bad.  I guess it's the current 89% on the same side that worries me more than anything...

All valid points.  So far nothing too scary in the line, up to -156 on my book.  I find the movement much more difficult to read than in other sports, but I do like recording the early lines and comparing them to how they move throughout the day (exclusive to my book and via VegasInsider).  

Quote Originally Posted by crowndaking:



except the risktaker that does not lay off e.g. fading Halliday last night.

Not sure what your point is.

I can't buy it up at my book. Bad enough to lay this juice on a team, but on a total?  No thanks.