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ST. LOUIS (Carpenter) @ COLORADO (Jimenez)
PICK: OVER 7.5
Both starters are coming off their worst start this season and questions loom. Does Carpenter have a forearm injury that is still bothering him? For Jimenez, who is coming off 3 straight un-Ubaldo-like games, are we seeing signs of tiredness? I would normally expect to come out in strong form and rise to the occasion for this headliner match up, but I sense that this will go the other way with both teams continuing to score runs. The Rockies have won some amazing final at-bat games at Coors this year and seem ready to execute a winning streak reminiscent of 2007.
LAA (Santana) @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX (Danks)
PICK: RUN LINE WHITE SOX -1.5 +145
White Sox are back to winning ways and go for the 4-game sweep at home of the Angels. Dank's 7-7 record and 3.58 ERA is solid, but I really like he is holding opponents to a 0.238 batting average. I think that Danks is better than the numbers suggest. The White Sox face Ervin Santana, who I think is worse than his numbers suggest. Santana's biggest vulnerability is that he throws a lot of fly balls: 232 FB to 123 GB and this has resulted in 15 home runs allowed, which is on pace to be his worst season ever in that category, and he has always given up the long ball. The Sox are 7th in baseball in HR hit and could be poised hit a few more tomorrow in a big win.
SAN DIEGO (Latos) @ WASHINGTON (Atilano)
PICK: RUN LINE PADRES -1.5 +110
I am betting on a decisive Padres win tomorrow as they play to avoid the sweep. All-Star snub Mat Latos is having a Josh Johnson like stretch: in his last 12 starts, he has given up only 16 runs. For this season, his 2.62 ERA actually pales in comparison to his 0.96 WHIP. Padres go up against Atilano, a pitcher that must always execute his pitches: in 76 IP, he has given up 83 hits and 27 walks (good walk ratio) to only 37 strikeouts. If this game does come down to the bullpens, note that the Nationals have really struggled to hold down leads, something that has plagued them since the Orioles series. While the Padres pen has also blown some games lately, over a full season of work, you still have the best bullpen in baseball.
CINCINNATI (Cueto) @ PHILADELPHIA (Kendrick)
PICK: REDS -105
At first glance, Cueto's last 4 four starts looks impressive as he has given up only 2 runs in that stretch. A closer look reveals that he was in a lot of trouble in two of those games including his last start at the Cubs where he allowed 7 hits and gave up 5 walks in just 5 innings (had the bases loaded in 3 of those innings) and yet did not allow a run. So, do we give him credit for being able to pitch out of jams? I am, because it means something to me when he faces Kendrick, who has shown an inability to get out of trouble over his last few starts. The Reds are hot, winning 12 of last 16, and all know that you can never count them out as they have a tendency to induce heart attacks with their last at-bat antics. And you have a Phillies bullpen that is struggling to close games again.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
PITTSBURGH (Ohlendorf) @ HOUSTON (Oswalt)
PICK: PIRATES +190
The last time through the rotation, Lincoln, McCutchen and Ohlendorf all got their first wins of the season and now Lincoln and McCutchen have lost, so will Ohlendorf lose too? Maybe, but I like that the big righty has come off two straight good outings against Oakland on the road and the Phillies at home (Underdog Special +140 win). Admittedly, Ohlendorf's statistical breakdown is eerily similar to that of Atilano, who I am fading in a big way tomorrow. Ohlendorf has 1.45 WHIP and does not strike out a lot of batters, which means that if he is not locating his pitches, he does not have the pitch arsenal to get him out of trouble (a la Cueto). That said, I will mention again that he has been getting the job done lately.
Oswalt takes the ball for the Astros. We all know that he wants out of Houston, but at this point, I am not sure if there is any extra motivation to pitch well leading up to a trade, since his resume speaks for itself. Although he has pitched mostly well for the season, his home record is a miserable 1-8 because he just can't get any runs from his team (23 runs in 10 home starts) which is near dead last in every statistical category.
It's a long shot, as all of my underdog specials have been (average line +185), so far, I am hitting 46% of these. It's baseball, after all, if I am right that the Pirates can keep this close, anything can happen!
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. . line is def too high for astros game
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