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Best Chance to win Series (that begin on 5/3/10)

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Rookie
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Posted: #1
So, I was looking for the HOME teams and the Away teams that should have the best chance to win their current series.
I weight their Home or Away Ranking times 2 and their overall ranking times 1, to get a total score for each team. I have done this for series that start today.
I then look for the home teams with a point differential of 10+.
Then I look for the away teams with a point differential of 6+

The 2 home teams that should have the best chance to win would be NYY & SDP.

NYY = 312.4
Vs
BAL = 290.5
Difference = 21.9

SDP = 309.1
Vs
COL = 298.2
Difference = 10.9

The 2 away teams that should have the best chance to win would be TOR & LAA.

TOR = 306.9
@
CLE = 299.7
Difference = 7.2

LAA = 303.6
@
BOS = 296.0
Difference = 7.6

So, my goal is to WIN ONE UNIT PER SERIES as listed above.
If I lose game #1, I'll double up (if needed) to be +1.00 Unit on the series.
Once I win the ONE Unit, then I will stop playing that series.
The good news is that the Road teams can be Dogs and if you win game #1, then you'll be up more than one unit for that series.

I'll keep track of these four series here.
If it works out, I'll do this for the next series as well.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #2
Game #1 Plays - HOME
NYY Vs BAL = NYY -305 (3.05 Units to Win 1.0 Units)
SDP Vs COL = SDP +128 (1.0 to Win 1.28)

Game #1 Plays - Away
TOR @ CLE = TOR +100 (1.0 to Win 1.0)
LAA @ BOS = LAA +162 (1.0 to Win 1.62)

 
Rookie
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Posted: #3

Check out my threads man. I have a very similar system.

 
Legend
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Posted: #4
BOL
 
Veteran
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Posted: #5
Where did you find the Yankees at -305?  I was seeing them at -450 earlier.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #6

Sorry.  I read this better and it doesnt appear you are using series prices for this.

 
Rookie
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Posted: #7
Yankee were -305 at BetJamaica.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
i know this system too, it really works. but how about u lose 2 game with the big favored, then can u able to put a lot of the third game.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #9
Steven - that is the scary part, with the super high Juice.
Let's say that somehow NYY would get sweep by BAL.
It could cost me about 45 units.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #10
Game #1 Plays - HOME
NYY Vs BAL = NYY -305 (3.05 Units to Win 1.0 Units)
SDP Vs COL = SDP +128 (1.0 to Win 1.28) PENDING

Game #1 Plays - Away
TOR @ CLE = TOR +100 (1.0 to Win 1.0)
LAA @ BOS = LAA +162 (1.0 to Win 1.62)


Game #2 Plays
LAA @ BOS = LAA +168 (1.19 to Win 2.0) - AWAY
And potentially the SDP Vs COL = SDP -138 - HOME
 
Rookie
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Posted: #11
NYY Vs BAL = 1 Game = +1.0 Units
TOR @ CLE = 1 Game = +1.0 Units

Game #2 Plays
LAA @ BOS = LAA +170 (1.17 to Win 2.0) - AWAY
SDP Vs COL = SDP -140 (2.8 to Win 2.0) - HOME

Also, I am playing LAA because the numbers say to, but I am not all too confident that they will not get swept by BOS at home right now. LAA has now lost 4 straight. We'll see what happens.


I'll be looking to possibly add a series that starts today, but I have not run the numbers for them all just yet. (It might be CHC @ PIT)
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #12
Max ,,how can you pass up

Talbot gm under
Buckholtz
Jiminez
Royals gm over,,,,,,,,,,,,,,push
Twins gm Over,,,,,,,,,,,,
all solid winners,,,,,,,,,,
 
Rookie
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Posted: #13
ADDING SERIES 5/4/10
CHC = 299.2
@
PIT = 291.3
Difference = 7.9 (CHC)

Game #1 Play
CHC @ PIT = CHC -156 (1.56 to Win 1.0) - AWAY


FYI: SDP is now at -136, and I've locked in at that price.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #14
Looking nice, you might wanna consider RL for the high juice...it pays off, I have a very similar system running in the systems section...
 
Rookie
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Posted: #15

Got the big juicer out of the way last night Max, which is always a plus for systems like ours. Bounce back today and get those other two out of the way

 
Rookie
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Posted: #16
yeah, I was extremely happy to get the NYY win in game #1.
Especially with Matusz going against them tonight.

My biggest concern still lies with LAA @ BOS, but I'm going to let the Rankings and Numbers do the work.

If this works out for the early week series, then I'll try it again for the next set of series. If it does not work then, I'll be going back to my 5 inning plays, like I have done so far this season.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #17
FYI: Both SDP & CHC both have had Line Movements and they are now at:
SDP -133
CHC -153

Kind of should have waited a bit, but I locked in at the lines in my post # 11 & 13. Oh well. Shouldn't matter cause I really like both SDP & CHC to win tonight.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #18
NYY Vs BAL = 1 Game = +1.0 Units
TOR @ CLE = 1 Game = +1.0 Units
SDP Vs COL = 2 Games = +1.0 Units
OVERALL Record = 3-4-0 (-0.74 Units)

Game #2 Results - 5/4/10
LAA @ BOS = LAA +170 (1.17 to Win 2.0) - AWAY
SDP Vs COL = SDP -136 (2.72 to Win 2.0) - HOME

Game #1 Play - 5/4/10
CHC @ PIT = CHC -156 (1.56 to Win 1.0) - AWAY
 
Rookie
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Posted: #19
Game #3 PLAY - 5/5/10
LAA @ BOS = LAA +153 (2.07 to Win 3.17) - AWAY

Game #2 Play - 5/5/10
CHC @ PIT = CHC -151 (3.87 to Win 2.56) - AWAY

*still quite concerned about playing the LAA @ BOS, but still going by the rankings at the beginning of the series. They HAVE to Win ONE, RIGHT?


 
Rookie
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Posted: #20
Max Power Home/Away Ranking System RESULTS

Game #3 PLAY - 5/5/10
LAA @ BOS = LAA +153 (2.07 to Win 3.17) - AWAY

Game #2 Play - 5/5/10
CHC @ PIT = CHC -151 (3.87 to Win 2.56) - AWAY


Max Power Memoirs (MLB ONLY)
TODAY = 2-2-0 (-4.90 Units)
Last 7 Days = 15-24-1 (-12.56 Units)
MLB Season = 58-60-8 (-4.85 Units)

ONE MORE DAY LEFT of the Max Power Home/Away Ranking System
AND if they don't pan out tomorrow, well then the SYSTEM did not work, and I will scratch the system. If it works tomorrow, then I'll give it one more series of tries to see what happens.
 
 
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Posted: #21
Max Power Home/Away Ranking System PLAYS

Game #4 PLAY - 5/6/10
LAA @ BOS = LAA +118 (4.45 to Win 5.25) - AWAY

Game #3 Play - 5/6/10
CHC @ PIT = CHC -164 (10.54 to Win 6.43) - AWAY

If the Cubbies don't pull out the WIN today, I really really really will be kicking my own arse for trying out this system.
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