Yankees vs. Phillies Game 1 Total

Weather and recent pitching performances clearly has the market place lowering the value of tonight's game 1 total now at 7.5.

I can understand the sentiment as well, the soggy weather along with Cliff Lee only allowing 2 runs in his last 24 innings is a hard argument to combat... but that's just what I am going to do.

Lets look at why I am playing the over. I think that Cliff Lee's recent performances are a bit misleading....as far as what will happen tonight.

Lee, in his last 3 outings against the Rockies and Dodgers had the benefit of surprise. There was adjustment periods. The Dodgers hitters had never faced Lee before his only start against them on October 18. The Rockies also had limited looks on Lee...only having 1 regular season look at him...  right after the trade deadline.

Its VERY important to note that is was right after the deadline too..because the Rockies coaches and hitters never anticipated or spent anytime evaluating Lee, why should they...he was in the AL. By the second match-up of the playoff series versus the Rockies, Colorado was able to score 3 earned runs off the starter. 

The problem for Lee tonight, is that there will be no surprises. The Yankee's have seen Lee before and know the book on him from his AL days. In fact, the current Yankees players have 194 at bats against Lee (as opposed to the Dodgers basically going in at 0 and the Rockies seeing him once before the playoffs.)...Yes I know many saw him before in the AL, but most of the Dodgers hadn't.

These 194 Yankee at bats yielded a career .294 batting average against Lee and a more important OBP of .355. Not the kind of stuff 7.5 O/U were made of...

How about this...Possada, Rodriguez, Tiexeira, Molina, Hairston and Cabrerra all have home runs against Lee. In addition to the big boys...though not contributing homers...

Jeter is 11 for 27 with a batting average of .407 against Lee with an OBP of .467 including 3 doubles, 5 RBI's and 3 walks.

Swisher 6 for 18...BA .333 and OBP of .458.

and Matsui 5 for 17 hitting .294 OBP of .368....

Yikes!

The Phillie's may score against CC as well...but I think this game goes OVER early... I am playing the OVER 7.5!

GL!

 

I am also playing the 5 Inn over as well.

Nice!

Your opinions and writeups are simply golden $$ ;)

Thanks! GL!

Would you also lean Yanks tonight?

Yes.

gl tonight

BOL man OV to the house

Allways like reading your writeups!

I AGREE, EVERYTIME TO BIG NAME PITCHERS HAVE THROWN AND YOU EXPECT A LOW SCORING GAME BUT THE OPPOSITE HAS HAPPENED THROUGHTOUT THE PLAYOFFS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. 

I agree, the phils saw CC last year in NL Wild card series too nad beat him.

m1, any concern that Lee's stats seemed to have improved a lot since 2008 (when his career really seemed to take off). In two starts at NY since 08 Lee has 13 IP, 1 run on a solo homer. I was thinking about Phils 1st 5 ML since Philly knocked around CC in the playoffs last year, but you seem to think Lee is going to get hammered. I might just sit this one out.

Great write-up.  Agree 100%. 
See ya at the window.

Baseball Props - 10/28/2009 World Series Game Props - Phillies vs Yankees - Total Runs + Hits + Errors in the 1st Inning - Over 3 Runs + Hits + Errors +115
Baseball - 951 Philadelphia Phillies/New York Yankees over 4 +100 for 1st 5 Innings

Baseball - 951 Philadelphia Phillies/New York Yankees over 7½ -115 for Game


I'm all over the over in every direction tonight! Lets go get'em

PG,

The difference here is that the total is only 7.5 (moved off my biggest key post season number of 8) That 1/2 run is critical because it actually plays out... on a winning bet to be a run and a half difference...8 or more now wins (as opposed) to needing that 9th run.

With these hitting line-ups 7.5 is impossible to pass-up on a 7.5 with the amount of looks the hitters have had vs. the pitchers. in this particular case... I like the odds of good hitting versus good pitching by both starters (a must at 7.5).


 

There doesn't have to be any slug fest to hit the over here

Basically,considering the hitters for both teams... at 7.5 I don't think the hitting has to be great to go over... but the pitching would have to be great to go under....

Based on the historical data and the situational handicap...... I like the odds of above average hitting versus the odds of great pitching

My local has it at 8, still like it??

I LIKED THE CALL BUT ENDED UP ONLY PLAYING THE PHILLIES PLUS 1.5 RUNS - 140 BUT I THOUGHT YOU WERE ON IT TOO. 

 

GL TMMRW

wat do u like on college fb tonite game nc vs vt ?