Runline discussion thread - Thursday 13 Aug 09

Great day Wednesday guys --

The "system" pick, for those who care, was St. Louis, and won, making the thing 9-4. 

Of the other picks we discussed, Boston was 59's two-star play, and covered easily --

As did Colorado, Atlanta and Texas (which wound up a narrow game favorite, and nice fat runline underdog).

Florida didn't cover, or win for that matter, and a lot of people liked the Marlins; the Yankees failed to cover -- but sentiment on the latter was split.

Looking at tomorrow, the system pick would be the Rockies again, with Marquis against Maholm for the Pirates.  

Which means, of course:  on to Thursday...

These both look plausible -- I'm anxious to see how any of the Yankees have hit in Safeco, and-or off of Snell -- some of them must have faced him once or twice.

You "Can't Counton" Sabathia from start to start, so I want the possibility of a lotta runs to cover, just in case.

i haven't been keeping up.

Per the fellow who suggested it, you simply find the largest favorite on the board every day, and do the runline for that game.

He only suggested it for August -- in September, the rosters expand, and certain teams clinch or de-clinch and so on... 

So far it's 9-4.  "We" (well, a bunch of us) decided to lay off one of the favorites on a day when there was a tie.  And "we" (a bunch of us) started on July 31, with Tampa, which won and covered.

And of course, not everyone likes the pick for a given day.  So some who sorta follow it are doing a little better.

But so far, even blindly doing the system has done fairly well -- considering the record and the fact that it's normally a small minus favorite, or, in many cases, a mild underdog.

I like the Phillies a bit on the first 5 runline (minus 1/2 run) -- anyone know if Aramis Ramirez is going to play, and-or if the Phillies will play their full lineup? 

Phillies -- no injuries, lineup will post at SportsNetwork.

Cubs -- Aramis listed as "out."  I doubt they would shove him in a day game against Cliff Lee, but I suppose it's possible.

Phillies -- they're such a narrow favorite, why take them on the runline?  It seems like a large added risk for -130 straight up.

Yankees -- don't hit well historically in Seattle, so you know.  I mean, not well at all.  And their 08 series was with a couple bums pitching for Mariners.  Yes, they've added Tiexera, but a lot of the lineup is the same.

Cubs / Aramis -- If you bet against the Cubs with Aramis out, and for them when he plays, over the last 25 games or so, you're approximately 19-6.   I'm too tired right now to do the math, but that's approximately correct. 

Runlines, on your question on this game above, you're right in one sense -- why bother with runline on a narrow favorite? 

But then again, sometimes the conversion is more favorable for those than for the heavy favorites.  E.g., a -290 favorite will often be -140 on the runline.  You win $33 by risking $100, or you win $70.  A -120 favorite may go to +150 runline, raising your yield not by $37, but by $60. 

It's all a question of whether that team will cover, of course.  But don't assume just because someone is a big favorite, they should be taken on the runline, or, conversely, that merely because you don't feel the "need" to, that it's a bad idea.

Some of the best runline bets are on narrow favorites (as when Lincecum pitches; he usually either wins and covers, or loses outright), and some of the worst are on heavy favorites (such as Felix Hernandez, who often wins by exactly one run thanks to the incredibly weak Seattle sticks.)

Homer -- track this down and let me know whether to bet it or not.

-- f.f.

Guys -- re Aramis / Cubs

I will post anything I find out.  Sportsnetwork.com will post the lineups around 60-100 minutes before game time. 

Colorado is scoring more than 8 runs per 9i at home against lefties.  And I think we have to consider Maholm a worse than average lefty, especially on the road.

Marquis stumbled in his most two recent starts, but one was against his old team, the Cubs, with Ramirez playing...  I give him a pass.  He's done well vs. Pirates, though this means a little less than it did two months ago given changeover;  Maholm has done poorly against the Rockies, which does mean something.

Given the overmatch of pitchers, teams, managers, mojo, &tc., the Rockies look like a good play to me. 

Ditto Cliff Lee, assuming no Aramis.  It's daunting to think the Phillies sweep on the road, but then, the Phillies just got swept at home -- and they continue to seemingly enjoy "road field advantage" this season. 

the RL possesses 'value' which in return, captures +units..A tool used in successful MLB handicapping. As stats indicate, the majority of games over the past 4seasons (including 09' seperately) are won by 2runs or +  ...On the other side of the equation, DOGS cashed 44.8%  in the same time frame..

going 9-4 (69.2%) is a solid stat, but what value did it bring in the form of units? A capper could go 7-6 on the RL (53.8%) by playing narrow favorites, and overpower a 9-4 by a 3/1 +unit ratio..Thus; value 'always' overpowers winning percentage attached to RL wagers..Assessment: wagering on a game based soley on the fact that it's a 'heavy' favorite, possesses no value to the wager at hand, or the capper at large. Attaching correct MM is essential to RL play...This is a good thread, based on RL concept, adding filters, and variables of understanding, will know doubt bring it's participants the success they seek within..respectfully,

 

SportsNetwork.com

 

Thanks for your kind remarks.

I've not kept an exact count of units for "the system," in part because I'm a tad busy, but more so because I don't want to promote the view that "the system" is something I, or we, necessarily endorse or support. 

"The system" (I realize you've not been in the thread every day) is something brought up by one random blogger who suggested it, was making an entry on it every day, and then (predictably, in my experience) stopped doing once he/it got to about 2-3. 

Now and then people ask about it or how it's doing, so I post it every day.  But I don't want to have to do a big disclaimer, so I have been somewhat informal about it.

All that said, I've gone back and reconstructed the 13 propositions we covered (you can read about them in the respective daily blogs), had you risked 1 unit each day on them, you would now be +6.2 units.  (+10.2 units on the 9 winning propositions, minus 4 units on the 4 losers, equals 6.2).

I'm a lot more interested, as you seem to intuit, in handicapping particular games intelligently as runline propositions.  I myself follow the "system" only if I like the pick intrinsically.  Well, a couple times I've done it just to spread my risk, but in small amounts. 

The best RL cappers in here, so far, are Chains (Ron_Chains) and  59 (Gfoss59).  If you're interested, you might want to sign them up as friends and correspond.  By my informal reckoning, they are both in the high-60s to low-70s somewhere (at least as to the picks they've made in the discussions.)  That's truly solid given that the typical runline generally runs between -130 and +130, i.e., over time, it's generally even-money betting. 

There are others that are excellent too, but a little less regular -- sometimes I see them, sometimes I don't.

Good luck and thanks for participating.  And do let us know what you think of some of the games. 

Rockies -- pounding LHP.  Worth double units. 

Yankees -- I'm not real excited about them today as I wasn't yesterday.

They are 5-2 to start road trips -- and the only "2" were earlier losses at Boston.  So there's actually some mojo there.  And the "5" were poundings, often of some decent teams like Texas, Tampa, and Minnesota (at home, decent.)

On the other hand, when they had to go a way out to California, they got swept by the Angels.  I know it sounds like coddling, but that 6-hour flight takes its toll.  Seattle had a late game, sure, but they went home.

And, I really can't trust C.C., as they say.  And hell, he's pitching against Snell.  But I'd almost rather it were someone reliably mediocre, like Joba or Pettitte, than win one, lose two, win two, lose one, win one C.C. 

I'm not going the other way on this.  I won't bet on Seattle.  But I'll probably lay off. 

Phillies are 4-1 at closing out series on the road where they have a chance to sweep -- some of these are bad teams (like DC early in year), but others solid, such as Florida. 

So, is it possible for Cubs to get swept at home?  Yes, apologies to Homertrack.  Doesn't mean it will happen, or that they'll cover, but it's a good shot.

Anyone given any thought to Seattle on the RL?  They must be close to even money + 1 1/2.  When Yankees have won out there in recent years, it's been close, low-scoring.

Covers Monitors, if you can please remove the asinine spam above, we'd be grateful.  -- 5innings

Aramis Ramirez not in the lineup for Cubs --

Phillies RL looks like a good two-star play, as does Colorado RL. 

Rockies are the "system's" play, for those who are interested.

So far so good 59, and RL -- 1-0 at +125 !