Kirby Zhang's MLB Picks & Write-ups for Thursday July 23

I promised you guys a comeback day, and there you have it. I went 5-1. Not a sweep, but pretty close. Tomorrow is going to be a light day. We have a big weekend ahead, so make sure you manage your money properly. Also If you enjoy my picks and please feel free to add me as a friend on covers.com. Okay, Here we go. Kirby Zhang's Picks for Thursday July 23rd.

Seattle @ Detroit
The Pick: Seattle ML
The Pick: Under 8.5

I really feel like Washburn (Seattle) is one pitcher that is very underrated, I mean come on, this guy has given up two runs his last three starts. TWO RUNS that's all. and no, they didn't play Kansas City. lol Detroit's bullpen gives up games, I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit who like I said yesterday is struggling terribly to score gets shut out tomorrow. Washburn has a ERA of 2.87, his opponent French has a 2.25 but with only three starts two of which are no decisions I just really feel like laughing at that? Don't you guys kinda feel like laughing? Look Seattle will take this game tomorrow, along with the series, and Washburn will prove himself. I don't know if you guys are into fantasy sports or not, honestly I'm not. But if you are pick this guy up. He's gonna do your league good.

PITCHER LAST 3 STARTS

JARROD WASHBURN (L) ERA: 2.87 W/L: 7-6
DATE    OPP    W/L    SCORE    OU    IP    $
07/18/2009    CLE    W    3-1    U    6?    100
07/11/2009    TEX    W    4-1    U    7    100
07/06/2009    BAL    W    5-0    U    9    100
    
LUCAS FRENCH (L) ERA: 2.25 W/L: 1-0
DATE    OPP    W/L    SCORE    OU    IP    $
07/17/2009    NYY    L    3-5    U    5    -100
07/08/2009    KC    W    3-1    U    6?    115
07/03/2009    MIN    W    11-9    O    4?    145

• Mariners are second lowest scoring team in the league at 4.0 runs per game.
• Mariners trail the league in walks with 2.7 per game.
• Mariners are the toughest team to score on in the league, allowing just 4.1 runs per game.
• Mariners have the best hits allowed in the league, allowing 8.3 per game.
• Tigers are third last in the league in hits at 8.6 per game.
• Tigers allow the third least hits in the league at 8.7 per game.
• Tigers are second worst in walks allowed in the league at 3.7 per game.

Cleveland @ Toronto
The Pick: Toronto ML

-142 for Toronto to beat Cleveland at home, when Huff is on the mound. WWTT (What Were They Thinking?!), yeah I don't know if anyone has ever abbreviated that, but I just mother fucking did. This line should easily be -180 or even higher. Huff is terrible. He's inconsistent and having some problems, not to mention that Cleveland is 17-30 on the road. Oh, and by on the road I mean on the road in their country, they're not even going to be in the US eay?.. Hah Whatever Cleveland is not going to win this game, I don't care if you wished for it really hard while on Santa's lap last christmas... Santa was drunk, and thinking about little boys. Nobody gives a fuck about Cleveland, not even Cleveland, they're too busy giving a fuck about LeBron, and Shaq and busy brainstorming how to make the Big Ten suck less (we'll go into that later).  During Huff's last three games he's only pitched an average of 5 innings, compared to Rzepczynski who in the last three games has pitched at least the 6th inning. I know He has a low ERA because he's only had three starts, and lost his first two, however remember it's not uncommon for pitchers to struggle a little their first couple of times. Then, when they are comfortable with the team, and know exactly what role they play they'll do a little better. Rzepczynski's win against Penny isn't exactly saying too much, but none the less It's still the Red Sox, and I think this will be game two. take the money out of your pocket and put it on Rzepczynski, and maybe after you come back from the cage with your cash you can buy Marc a few more vowels for his freakin name.

DAVID HUFF (L) ERA: 6.60 W/L: 4-4
DATE    OPP    W/L    SCORE    OU    IP    $
07/17/2009    SEA    L    2-6    U    5    -100
07/09/2009    CHW    W    10-8    O    4?    110
07/03/2009    OAK    W    15-3    O    6    100
    
MARC RZEPCZYNSKI (L) ERA: 2.50 W/L: 1-1
DATE    OPP    W/L    SCORE    OU    IP    $
07/18/2009    BOS    W    6-2    U    6    105
07/12/2009    BAL    L    2-4    U    6    -100
07/07/2009    TB    L    1-3    U    6    -100

• Indians are third worst in the league in times striking out with 7.7 per game.
• Indians are the easiest team to score on in the league, giving up 5.5 runs per game.
• Indians have the worst hits allowed in the league, allowing 9.7 per game.
• Indians give up the most free passes in the league allowing 3.8 per game.
• Indians are third last in the league in striking out opponents with 6.1 per game.
• Blue Jays have the second best hits stat in the league at 9.5 per game.
• Blue Jays strike out less than any team in the league with 5.9 per game.
• Blue Jays have allowed the third fewest runs in the league at 4.4 runs per game.
• Blue Jays are third in the league in striking out opponents with 7.3 per game.

San Diego @ Philadelphia
The Pick Philadelphia ML

hahahahahahahahahahaha. Are you confused? Do I really need to write up here? If you thought Philadelphia was on a roll before wait till you see this series! Look, Philly figured things out, and yeah they lost to the cubs today and ended the ten gamer, but who cares. They are one of the Post All Star hot teams, they can score, and they are balanced. Okay, Okay I guess you have a point... It's not like they're playing San Diego... oh! Right.. San Diego is as good of a team as Mike Tyson is smart. And if you think Tyson is a genius go ahead, be an Eisenstein and put your money down, but I'm telling you with a distinguishing meaning; San Diego can't hit on the road, especially against lefty's... No fuck that. let me rephrase that statement so it has a little bit more fact, and emphasis oh my point... San Diego sucks more dick on the road than the crack person who hangs out next to the broken gate by the ghetto apartment complex... Don't act like you haven't driven by there.. Anyway. 13-32 That's their road record. You know what here are the facts. Hamels has won his last three, San Diego is 13-32, Correia isn't too terrible, in fact he's half decent, but you need a solid team behind you. And don't forget Hamel's Home ERA is 2 runs lower then his overall ERA. Why am I still wasting your time with this write up. Go make some money.

• Padres are lowest scoring team in the league at 3.7 runs per game.
• Padres trail the league in hits with 7.8 per game.
• Padres have the second weakest defence in the league at 5.0 runs per game.
• Phillies are the highest scoring team in the league at 5.4 runs per game.
• Phillies are third in the league in hits at 9.0 per game.

St. Louis @ Washington
The Pick: St. Louis

After a devastating series against the action Astros St. Louis is going to travel to Washington to face the nationals. Wainwright is a good pitcher, solid, and even though he lost against Arizona his last start don't put this game past him. A solid pitcher against the worst team in the league.  and the price is only -138. Come on guys, I feel like I'm trying to fucking sell you guys something on a late night Infomercial like a vacume cleaner or some shit. This Is important stuff we're doing. Lets take advantage of this line. Here is why the line is low. St. Louis just came off of being swept. Wainwright lost his last start. Now I ask you... So what? St. Louis does have some offense problems I'll admit it, but I'll admit this, Washington has no pitching, no one says "Wow, so and so has really had some problems with Washington's amazing pitching.." that's why they have the worst record, not because they are the worse ( I think as they showed yesterday the NY Mets are worse, and so is San Diego) They just have a losing record because they have NO DEFENSE, hence no pitching. Wainwright is not going to go out there and make an ass of himself. this is turn around time. St. Louis is feeling the pressure of the NL central race, and they're going to take this opportunity to get an easy win before they face Philly. Even though St. Louis has been on the road for a few days I think Wainwright is ready to go out and get the W.

• Cardinals give up the fewest free passes in the league allowing 2.9 per game
• Nationals are the easiest team to score on in the league, giving up 5.6 runs per game.
• Nationals have the worst hits allowed in the league, allowing 9.7 per game.
• Nationals are second worst in walks allowed in the league at 3.9 per game.
• Nationals strike out the second least opponents in the league with 5.5 per game.

Oakland As @ New York Yankees
The Pick: New York Yankees -1.5

The Yanks run away with the lead, and the Sox fall behind. Do you know what the locker-room, and morale of a winning team looks like? I'll tell you this, it looks solid. Now let's add these factors in, Sabathia pitching for New York, and Mazzaro who is 2-6 pitching for Oakland. Now lets add real world elements. Oakland flew after they slaughtered Minnesota around 4 PM pacific standard time. and ended up in New York at 1145 PM Eastern time, 1230 you're checked into the hotel. 1-2 Hours to get settled and fall asleep.. that's if you do fall asleep because remember, its actually still about 11 PM on the west coast... you start the day on one coast and end the day at another. Can you say "Fuck my sleep schedule?" Also Oakland has problems hitting lefty's on the road, and I bet they'll have bigger problems hitting lefty's in the new Yankees Stadium. Not to mention the stud that Sabathia is. Should I say anymore?

• Athletics are the third lowest scoring team in the league at 4.3 runs per game.
• Athletics trail the league in hits with 8.4 per game.
• Yankees are the second highest scoring team in the league at 5.5 runs per game.
• Yankees are third in the league in hits at 9.5 per game.
• Yankees lead the league in walks with 4.2 per game.
• Yankees are third best in the league in times striking out with 6.0 per game.
• Yankees are second best in the league in giving up hits, allowing 8.6 per game.
• Yankees are the second highest scoring team in the league at 5.5 runs per game.
• Yankees are third in the league in hits at 9.5 per game.
• Yankees lead the league in walks with 4.2 per game.
• Yankees are third best in the league in times striking out with 6.0 per game.
• Yankees are second best in the league in giving up hits, allowing 8.6 per game.

Okay guys those are picks, below is some additional information that I think you guys might find helpful.

What's Hot

If you guys are looking for anyone else who has been picking with high percentages I really recommend Pickasaurus's plays. He's gone 13 of his last 14 and he's been killing' them. One of the most under rated 'cappers on this site, take a look at his posts, he doesn't do write ups but he certainly knows his sports. He is solid.


Upset Alert

Minesota @ LA Angels

I feel really bad about this one guys. I know Weaver looks like a stud, but my best advice is to not get on this wagon.



KIRBY ZHANG CONFIDENCE RANKING
(In Order of Confidence)

Seattle ML
Yankees -1.5
Under 8.5
Philadelphia ML
St. Louis
Toronto

high priced game like this are good for driving up value for parleys.. you can also just take the runline

damn we have all the same plays (except a couple of ectra plays that i have) hopefully you have a good day since thatll mean im having a pretty good one to

Agree with most of those but not really Seattle. There's very little value in the line. I agree with your statements, other than the fact that Washburn's ERA is a full point higher (albeit still very freaking good) and his WHIP is over .3 points higher on the road. He clearly enjoys pitching at Safeco, a notorious pitchers' park.

That being said, Comerica works out very well for a flyball pitcher like him, so he'll probably be fine. But the Tigers do hit lefties decently and French has scrappily pitched quite well the past few days.

And you're going to probably have to put that STL bet in ltaer unless your book is action regardless of SP. Nats just put Jordan Zimmermann on the DL and Colin Balester has been called up to make the start. Actually a pretty decent prospect but Zimmy is a better pitcher. Would perhaps be a bit concerned about the Nats' recent run perhaps giving them a bit of confidence, but it was agains the Mets and they still definitely suck.

*French last few starts
*Put that STL in again later...most books will cancel it with an SP change

BOL Kirby...

Nice writeup and continued success...

BOL big guy.

man I was gonna bet on angels. I'm now a bit cautious.

 

 

Well, I was hoping you'd say that you were just kidding about calling C.C. Needabathia a "stud" pitcher, because in 40% of his starts this season, he's been a "dud" pitcher.  Eight times in just twenty starts Sabathia has given up 4 or more earned runs, and most of those bad starts followed a good start.  Since he wiggled out of numerous jams last Saturday to post 7 shutout innings against the Tigers, I thought tonight would be another good night to cash in against this hugely overrated free agent blob.  I'm looking for +250 or better and I currently have offers up at Matchbook on Oakland +256 and -1.5 +375.

What about Cardinals Team Total over 5?? Balester? He got rocked in Triple-A.

 

 

Kirbyzhang, what's with the body clock/sleep schedule nonsense?  Major league teams are used to checking into hotels in the middle of the night.  I suspect a great many of these players are night owls as it is.  Obviously these afternoon "getaway" games (like the one Oakland played yesterday) are scheduled so teams can reach their next city at a reasonable hour. 

When teams arrive in a new city in the wee hours, the negative effects aren't felt that night in the first game of the series.  The thrown off sleep schedule hits them the following night in the second game of the series.  At least that's what I once heard Vin Scully explain.  And if Vin said it, then it has to be true.  But as it is, the A's probably landed in NYC before midnight.