Posted:
#1
Well, thought I had the 2nd straight perfect night in the bag last night but the Angels bullpen imploded. Tough losses like that happen though and I can't complain as I did get another winning day going (2-1) picking up another unit. That's the goal just to keep get winning days and building the bankroll. On to Thursday's card and hopefully a 3rd straight winning day.
MLB: Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins
Pick: ML - Minnesota Twins (-120) / 1 Unit
Analysis: I backed the Twins successfully yesterday and I'm going right back to the well again with them today. Dealing for the Twins will be left hander Glenn Perkins. Perkins last season was a solid option for the Twins especially at home where he went (7-3) with a solid 3.84 ERA. Not bad for a back of the rotation starter. After a rough end to his 2008 campaign Perkins pitched very well this Spring going 32.1 innings while allowing just 7 ER for a 2.03 Spring ERA. When looking at Perkins starts last year against the Mariners I noticed he gave up a lot of runs. However, in both games he pitched shutout ball until the 6th where things fell apart. Look for manager Ron Gardenhire to pull the plug earlier tonight if he sees Perkins getting into any trouble around the 6th. The Marins offense so far has put up 17 runs in 3 games. However, the Mariners will again be without star RF Ichiro Suzuki and it's only a matter of time before his absence has an effect on this offense and I think that could start today. The Mariners will throw out a lefty of their own today in veteran Jarrod Washburn. Wahsburn will be 35 in August and it looks like his best days are behind him. Last year he went just (5-14) with a 4.69 ERA. He followed that up with a subpar Spring where he allowed a very high 51 hits and 22 ER in 30IP. 51 hits in 30 IP is terrible and means whatever Washburn is throwing up there it is coming no where close to working. In his only start against the Twins last season he allowed 4 runs in 6 IP. The Twins on offense have also been solid and after facing two very tough starters in Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez they showed what they can do against subpar pitching in touching up Carlos Silva yesterday. They'll be facing subpar pitching again this afternoon and I expect them to put up some runs. Dating back to last year the Mariners are just (2-8) in Washburn's last 10 starts as an underdog and (1-5) in Washburn's last 6 starts against a team with a winning record. The Twins on the other hand are (5-2) in Perkins' last 7 starts as a favorite and (5-2) in Perkins' last 7 starts at home. They're also (9-0) in Perkins' last 9 starts when the Twins allowed 5 runs or less in the previous game. Even though the trends are in our favor the bottom line is Perkins looked good in the Spring and Washburn did not. The Twins took the first 2 games of this 3 game set and I expect them to take the series with another win this afternoon. I'm playing the Twins (-120) to win.
MLB: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Total - Under 9.5 (-110) / 1 Unit
Analysis: Tough to take an under with the Yankees on the field but I think this total is a little high for that exact reason and I think there's a favorable line to take the under. Will someone step up for the Yankees on the mound? Sabathia and Wang looked terrible and today new aquisition A.J. Burnett will get his first shot at showing Yankees fan he can live up to his huge contract. Burnett had his best season last year recording career high's in wins, innings pitched, and strikeouts. After a solid Spring where he allowed 8 ER in 23.1 IP Burnett will get a chance to show he could actually be the ace in this very deep staff. Burnett has the perfect chance to do that after Sabathia and Wang got rocked Burnett can appease Yankees fans by giving the Yanks a quality start they desperately need. The Orioles have put up 17 runs in their first 2 games but expect that stat to be ringing in Burnett's ear. Again, this is all about Burnett having a chance to prove himself possibly more than any other time outside the playoffs. I expect A.J. to be on top of his game. On the hill for the Orioles will be right hander Alfredo Simon. Simon arrived late to Spring due to Visa issues but once he got there all he did was impress. Simon had a 1.13 ERA in 20.2 IP over 4 Spring starts. Only 2 batters have experience against Simon just one starter Cody Ransom. Despite scoring 10 runs in 2 games the Yankees aren't hitting the ball like they want right now. Slow starting Mark Teixiera is in usual Spring form batting just .111 so far. The Under is (5-2-1) in the Yankeers last 8 games with a total set at 9 to 10.5. All in all I guess you could call this a contrarian play. Most will expect another high scoring affair here but I just see a lower scoring game after 2 shootouts. I especially expect for Burnett to step up big here and if Simon can give a solid effort this one should stay under since the posted total is pretty high. All in all I'm playing this match up to stay under 9.5 runs.
MLB: Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Pick: RL - Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+130) / 1 Unit
Analysis: The White Sox and Royals will get together this afternoon for the rubber match of their opening series'. Taking the hill for the visting Royals is right hander Kyle Davies. Davies allowed 14 runs in 30.1 IP this Spring allowing almost a run every other inning and hasn't had his best stuff. Davies was just (3-3) with a 4.39 ERA on the road last year and had a very high 5.70 ERA in 5 day game starts as well. In 4 starts against the White Sox last season Davies had a 4.30 ERA allowing 11 ER in 23 IP again almost a run every pther inning. After facing 2 good starters in Gil Meche and Zack Greinke expect the White Sox batters to welcome the sight of Davies on the mound and for their bats to heat up. Taking the hill for the hill for the White Sox is lefty John Danks. He is they key the the bet here as I believe Danks may be the best pitcher on the White Sox staff. Danks last season was (12-9) with a very good 3.32 ERA. During day games last season Danks was (7-3) with a 2.50 ERA. Danks was (1-0) against the Royals last season with an ERA just North of 4 in 4 starts. Danks is a better 1st half pitcher as well where last season he was (7-4) with a 2.67 ERA. Danks also had a good Spring posting a 2.93 ERA in just 27.2 IP. The Royals offense has good, young talent but don't expect them to come out against a very good Danks and put up a lot of runs cause I just don't see it happening. Danks has proved he is very good early on in the season and during the day and that's the situation we're getting him in today. Dating back to last year the Royals are (0-4) in Davies' starts where they score 2 runs or less in their previous game. Good news for the White Sox is they are (5-0) in Danks' last 5 starts in a game where they allowed 2 runs or less the previous game. All in all I expect Danks to have a very good outing with the White Sox bats heating up during this day affair. I'm playing the White Sox RL (+130) to win this one big.
Good Luck,
John Tyler
MLB: (7-3) +4.20 Units
MLB: Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins
Pick: ML - Minnesota Twins (-120) / 1 Unit
Analysis: I backed the Twins successfully yesterday and I'm going right back to the well again with them today. Dealing for the Twins will be left hander Glenn Perkins. Perkins last season was a solid option for the Twins especially at home where he went (7-3) with a solid 3.84 ERA. Not bad for a back of the rotation starter. After a rough end to his 2008 campaign Perkins pitched very well this Spring going 32.1 innings while allowing just 7 ER for a 2.03 Spring ERA. When looking at Perkins starts last year against the Mariners I noticed he gave up a lot of runs. However, in both games he pitched shutout ball until the 6th where things fell apart. Look for manager Ron Gardenhire to pull the plug earlier tonight if he sees Perkins getting into any trouble around the 6th. The Marins offense so far has put up 17 runs in 3 games. However, the Mariners will again be without star RF Ichiro Suzuki and it's only a matter of time before his absence has an effect on this offense and I think that could start today. The Mariners will throw out a lefty of their own today in veteran Jarrod Washburn. Wahsburn will be 35 in August and it looks like his best days are behind him. Last year he went just (5-14) with a 4.69 ERA. He followed that up with a subpar Spring where he allowed a very high 51 hits and 22 ER in 30IP. 51 hits in 30 IP is terrible and means whatever Washburn is throwing up there it is coming no where close to working. In his only start against the Twins last season he allowed 4 runs in 6 IP. The Twins on offense have also been solid and after facing two very tough starters in Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez they showed what they can do against subpar pitching in touching up Carlos Silva yesterday. They'll be facing subpar pitching again this afternoon and I expect them to put up some runs. Dating back to last year the Mariners are just (2-8) in Washburn's last 10 starts as an underdog and (1-5) in Washburn's last 6 starts against a team with a winning record. The Twins on the other hand are (5-2) in Perkins' last 7 starts as a favorite and (5-2) in Perkins' last 7 starts at home. They're also (9-0) in Perkins' last 9 starts when the Twins allowed 5 runs or less in the previous game. Even though the trends are in our favor the bottom line is Perkins looked good in the Spring and Washburn did not. The Twins took the first 2 games of this 3 game set and I expect them to take the series with another win this afternoon. I'm playing the Twins (-120) to win.
MLB: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Total - Under 9.5 (-110) / 1 Unit
Analysis: Tough to take an under with the Yankees on the field but I think this total is a little high for that exact reason and I think there's a favorable line to take the under. Will someone step up for the Yankees on the mound? Sabathia and Wang looked terrible and today new aquisition A.J. Burnett will get his first shot at showing Yankees fan he can live up to his huge contract. Burnett had his best season last year recording career high's in wins, innings pitched, and strikeouts. After a solid Spring where he allowed 8 ER in 23.1 IP Burnett will get a chance to show he could actually be the ace in this very deep staff. Burnett has the perfect chance to do that after Sabathia and Wang got rocked Burnett can appease Yankees fans by giving the Yanks a quality start they desperately need. The Orioles have put up 17 runs in their first 2 games but expect that stat to be ringing in Burnett's ear. Again, this is all about Burnett having a chance to prove himself possibly more than any other time outside the playoffs. I expect A.J. to be on top of his game. On the hill for the Orioles will be right hander Alfredo Simon. Simon arrived late to Spring due to Visa issues but once he got there all he did was impress. Simon had a 1.13 ERA in 20.2 IP over 4 Spring starts. Only 2 batters have experience against Simon just one starter Cody Ransom. Despite scoring 10 runs in 2 games the Yankees aren't hitting the ball like they want right now. Slow starting Mark Teixiera is in usual Spring form batting just .111 so far. The Under is (5-2-1) in the Yankeers last 8 games with a total set at 9 to 10.5. All in all I guess you could call this a contrarian play. Most will expect another high scoring affair here but I just see a lower scoring game after 2 shootouts. I especially expect for Burnett to step up big here and if Simon can give a solid effort this one should stay under since the posted total is pretty high. All in all I'm playing this match up to stay under 9.5 runs.
MLB: Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Pick: RL - Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+130) / 1 Unit
Analysis: The White Sox and Royals will get together this afternoon for the rubber match of their opening series'. Taking the hill for the visting Royals is right hander Kyle Davies. Davies allowed 14 runs in 30.1 IP this Spring allowing almost a run every other inning and hasn't had his best stuff. Davies was just (3-3) with a 4.39 ERA on the road last year and had a very high 5.70 ERA in 5 day game starts as well. In 4 starts against the White Sox last season Davies had a 4.30 ERA allowing 11 ER in 23 IP again almost a run every pther inning. After facing 2 good starters in Gil Meche and Zack Greinke expect the White Sox batters to welcome the sight of Davies on the mound and for their bats to heat up. Taking the hill for the hill for the White Sox is lefty John Danks. He is they key the the bet here as I believe Danks may be the best pitcher on the White Sox staff. Danks last season was (12-9) with a very good 3.32 ERA. During day games last season Danks was (7-3) with a 2.50 ERA. Danks was (1-0) against the Royals last season with an ERA just North of 4 in 4 starts. Danks is a better 1st half pitcher as well where last season he was (7-4) with a 2.67 ERA. Danks also had a good Spring posting a 2.93 ERA in just 27.2 IP. The Royals offense has good, young talent but don't expect them to come out against a very good Danks and put up a lot of runs cause I just don't see it happening. Danks has proved he is very good early on in the season and during the day and that's the situation we're getting him in today. Dating back to last year the Royals are (0-4) in Davies' starts where they score 2 runs or less in their previous game. Good news for the White Sox is they are (5-0) in Danks' last 5 starts in a game where they allowed 2 runs or less the previous game. All in all I expect Danks to have a very good outing with the White Sox bats heating up during this day affair. I'm playing the White Sox RL (+130) to win this one big.
Good Luck,
John Tyler
MLB: (7-3) +4.20 Units
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