Gut Picks - Saturday ~ Feb. 9th

Hello and Good day to you all.  I trust everybody had a profitable Friday.  Either way, Friday is history let us converse on the upcoming games for today.  Hockey Day in Canada did someone say?

Well regards to our Canadian brothers.  Let us discuss debate,  Please remember to be respectful to your fellow capper(s).  Thank you. 

So I started out with a bigger head of steam than I end today's write up w/ but I . . . I just didn't have the energy this morning for one big cluster-fuck of a write up.  Anywho, here's what I *did* come up with:

NYR v PHI - Rangers anyone?   Would anybody like to back the Rangers today?  . . . anybody? . . . nope?  Well surprise surprise, neither do I.  Here's why:  After showing an outburst of quality play - logging a three game win streak in which they outscored their opposition 12-4 - the Rangers have dropped games to both the Kings and the Ducks.  Two teams that were both mired in winless streaks; and neither team has been able to find the loss column since (granted it has only been a couple of games *since* for each; yet still, there it is).

Perhaps not surprisingly, is that the Rangers aforementioned three game string of wins, started off in Philly, on Thursday of last week.  The Rangers have won twice in Phil-town thus far this season, and they have bested 'the brothers' 3 out of 4 pervious meetings.   But unlike some of those other meetings, the line-up card for both teams will be altered.  Shanahan is lost to his teammates.

"Brendan Shanahan is likely lost to the Rangers for the next two weeks due to a leg injury.
Shanahan's entire left leg has been bothering him for more than a month now. "It's my hamstring, my quad, my groin, my hip, my knee - my whole left leg, basically, for the last month," the veteran said."
Feb. 5 - 11:18 am et
Source: New York Daily News

Shanny may be getting long in the tooth, but he has been productive and he will be missed.  Hossa is also out, and though Drury and Gomez had been productive in that three game winning stretch, neither player has found his "A-game" this season (or at least not for much longer than a fleeting moment).  I think we all know the score, and the Rangers definitely know the score is regards to all those issues.  New York may have it in mind to exhibit some sort of dominance over the Flyers the Saturday, but I think it's wishful thinking.  Granted that winning they did, was done on the road, but how many "road wins" is the Rangers club going to string together do you think?  "Three" sounds like their limit to me.

As for the Phils:  "According to Yahoo Sports, Joffrey Lupul has been cleared to play on Saturday against the Rangers. Lupul has been cleared to play five days earlier than expected. He has been sidelined since January 5 with a spinal cord contusion.  Lupul has 35 points (16g-19a) in 39 games this season.
February 08, 2008 7:43 PM
Source: Yahoo Sports/Fantasyhockey.com

Obviously, Lupul's return bodes very well for a Flyers clubs that seems to be getting healthy just at the right time, to make their push for the playoffs.  The first game to those ends drops puck at 1:00 P.M. (EST) TODAY.  PHI (ML)


LAK v  PIT - Despite injuries and any other number of setbacks, both these clubs have been playing very solid .500 hockey.  I don't say that with any sarcasm or ego.  They have played at .500, but they have had to play very spirited and no-nonsense hockey to get there.  The "days of rest ATS/SUP" record puts the advantage squarely in the Pens corner.  But even if it hadn't, I'd still take Pittsburgh over 'the Angels'.  Good as they've played, the Kings are still a last place hockey team.  And lets not fool ourselves here, they belong . . . in last place of their division.  I couldn't say where the Pens place among their divisional standings . . . though I very much doubt that they are in last.

The Penguins have a 3:2 home record and that's good enough for me.  Certainly better than the Kings road record.  Also, I can see a lot of ppl taking the Kings today.  I understand why they like them.  The just beat the might Red Wings.  As great as the Wings are, I'd be surprised to see them hoist the cup this season.  Still I think that L.A. won't be able to help but "buy their own hype" as it were.  They've won a couple games, and yeah for them.  Truly, I comment them.  However, it's time to get real.  Conklin may not have Osgood's stats, but I dare say he's been better than Ozzy over the past month or two, especially considering that he usually faces 30 shot per game, rather than 10 (right, I know, "facing 10 shots a game is the more difficult task" - DERF).

Conklin should be playing the pipes in this PA Saturday Matinee.  And if he isn't, well shucks, I'm guessing I'd take a look at better the Over (6) . . . maybe.  PIT (ML)

NOTE: These two teams don't cross paths very often.  Although L.A. has gotten the better of the Pens of the years, their most recent meeting ended in a Pens victory.


DET v TOR - The Red Wings will be out for blood today.  God love the Leafs, they stuck it to Montreal at the Bell Centre, and well . . . what a great win for them.  As impressive as a win as they did have, the Leafs will *be* hard pressed by this visiting Detroit club.

This is another match-up that doesn't happen very often.  Under a different set circumstances, some might be calling this game a "possible preview of this season's Stanley Cup Finals".  But we all know that people aren't saying that, and we all know the reason(s) 'why' folks are not making such statements.  DET (ML)

NOTE:  The Leafs lineup is looking stronger/healthier now than it has in weeks. 


Does the nickname "Foppa" annoy anybody else?  It sounds like the type of handle you would give to a guy w/ E.D.  It sounds too much like "Floppa".  That ain't right. 

NYI v MIN - I'd love to back the Islanders here, I really would.  I think they play w/ a lot heart, and they're my top nomination for "most lovable losers" this season.  The trouble w/ betting on "losers", however, is that it often sees *you* losing you money, and that's nothing to fall in love with.  Reading the Isles injury list, it seems full of key players that have been w/ the team, *not* getting it done all season.  And now Satan is "questionable" for today's game?  When even Satan is no longer w/ you, you've got to think it's time to sit back and worry a little bit.

Injuries: For the Wild, W Mark Parrish (concussion) is doubtful. W Pierre-Marc Bouchard (flu) missed practice Friday and will be re-evaluated today. D Sean Hill (ankle) will play tonight, according to coach Jacques Lemaire. For the Islanders, C Shawn Bates (hip surgery), D Chris Campoli (shoulder), C Mike Sillinger (hip) and LW Jon Sim (knee) are on injured reserve. RW Miroslav Satan (right knee) did not play Thursday and is day-to-day.
Source: https://www.startribune.com/sports/wild/15467116.html

You know the Isles are only 5 points out of a playoff spot.  Maybe it is wrong of me to call them "losers".  But they have been doing just that; having lost their past six games on the row.  Tonight might be the night that they break out of this current slump of theirs, but doing that means beating MIN, thus sweeping the Wild's three game homestand. all the way into the gutter.

Are you telling me the Isles are going to get it done?  While hampered w/ injuries and on the road?  In front of a hungry MIN crowd on a Saturday?  Well I'd love to follow you, as I honestly do like this Isles team.  I just can't 'buy the Brooklyn Bridge' w/ y'all today, however.  MIN (ML)


EDM v CAL - Well shucks.  After spoiling Cujo's return festivities, the Oilers ride into the Saddledome for the second half of their "almost home" 'n' home against the Flames.  This is Edmonton's first road game since losing Horcoff (their leading goal-scorer), Souray (a guy that'd been missing most of the season anyway) and Raffi Torres (a good player that will be missed for the remainder of the season).  The good news within all those injured players, is that Souray is the only defender among them, and while he is a good one, losing him to injury shouldn't effect the Oiler defensive abilities very much (if at all).

Mathieu Garon  and the Oilers have been brilliant of late, and they scored back to back wins; out-tallying their foes 9-1 on the scorecard.  This team that is missing their top goal-scorer . . . they just did that.  I'm sure the Flames are super fuckin' pissed, and will likely be playing 'rough 'n' tumble' w/ the Oilers tonight.  Though I am also confident that the Oilers will be equal to the task.  I reckon you can just about count on Kipper keeping net for the home side tonight (rather than Cujo).  And Garon will likely pull guard duty at the visitor's side.

I don't care how pissed Calgary is.  They got whooped by EDM, and proceeded to lose to the Blackhawks (at home) three nights later.  With the line looking juicy in this one, and a number of other factors.  I'll take me some oily dogs here.  Calgary is not the squad that it once was.  EDM (ML) - I was bound to make a non-PC pick sooner or later.


FLA v BOS - Boston Boston Boston, what a game the Bees played last night.  What a shot, what a game, WHAT A TEAM!!  Welcome back Mr. Murray & Mr. Auld!!!  After a great (SO) divisional win like that, I don't see the Bees having a letdown at home tonight.  Tim Thomas will be ready to lead and rearing to roar for his Bruins this evening.  The Panthers put up a good fight in OTT, but they are likely a little road weary at this point.  Plus, the Bruins are no push-overs on home ice.  After tonight, the Panthers get on a plane to go play another one tomorrow against the Sabs.  I can't imagine the Pussycats are loving life right now.  It makes me sick just thinking about it . . . God I hate flying . . .

Certainly I respect the Panthers, and I respect their will and ability to win this game.  However, I think Big Mo' is on Boston's side, and I trust Glen Murray's homecoming will add some juice to the occasion.  Ya.  Saturday night, . . Boston Garden . . . yeah  BOS (PL)

NOTE:  FLA has had good success against BOS over that past few years.  Though in their one face-off thus far *this* season, Boston won as the visitors 4-3.



MTL v  OTT - Speaking of comebacks, Alfredsson will be back in the lineup for *his* club tonight against the hated Habs (and honest, I think we all hate them, am I right? - lol).  "Alfie", "Spizza", and "the Heater" will be reunited as they Sens face off against Montreal.  Again. I anticipate there being much adulation and hoopla for this match.  The goalie situation is the only question in my mind.  But if OTT can score to the tune of five goals for a second game on the row, then "goalie situation" be damned!!

Over (whatever) is likely the safest play here I think.  As for the sides though . . . OTT has owned MLT thus far on OTT ice.  I see few reasons why this trend should end tonight.  The Sens are still "hurting" for victories a bit, so tonight we should see an honest effort from 'the Pollies'. OTT (ML)


CAR v NJD - The Devils, in spite of themselves, put up a good fight last night.  Carolina also played a gritty game last night, and held Alexie the Great of the points-sheet, a feat not often achieved.  In their recent history, the Devs have had the Canes number, so to speak.  However, the home team has only one victory out of the past five match-ups.  *sigh* Which is all well 'n' good, but 'who cares' really.

What we need to know here is as simple as this.  The Devils have played like shit, and the Canes are a team that is very beatable tonight for NJD.  They Devs is at home, it's a Saturday crowd, the Cars have been on the road for more than a couple games now.  New Jersey just ran out of excuses, and they really don't have any other choice *but* to win tonight.  I am not concerned as to whether Marty is in goal for the Devs tonight or not.
Though, being a Saturday night, I suspect the spotlight will coax Brodeur into the starting net for his club.

Cam Ward might also be in for his club, but, well, that doesn't concern me either.  NJ has lost two on the row, and tonight they get their wake-up call.  Under looks tempting, but I won't hold my breath on either side of the total.  NJD (ML)

NOTE: The Canes are still very much 'a team on the mend'. 

TBL v ATL - I can't fully get my head around this one.  The Thrashers are another team that knocked together three wins after the break, but since then have run cold.  The Lightning have been winning on the road, but ATL has won 3 of the 5 games these two clubs have played thus far this season.  AND AND AND ATL could really use a win, after dropping their precious two games.

I just can't say.  However, the Over(6) - and yes, that total is a consistent - has cashed in all five of the games these two teams have played this season.  I think they're good for at least one more.  Over (6)

NOTE:  The total has yet to come out for the O/U, so I'm doing some guess-work here . . . sort of.


STL v DAL - These two clubs are at the exact opposite sides of the spectrum.  Of their respective previous ten games.  The Porn Stars are 8-2, while The Blue Notes are 2-8 . . . yeesh.  And here some were thinking STL had a chance at Stanley Cup glory earlier this season.   Well, their goose isn't cooked just yet.  St. Louis has a great shot at winning tonight.  Marty Turco was unable to join his team for their game in MIN, so that doesn't bode well for Dallas.  And even if Turco does play, I don't fully trust that he'll be able to perform.

Meanwhile the Blues have had time to prepare for this game, and their record on 3+ days of rest is very respectable indeed [5-2 (ATS & SUP)].  These clubs have met twice and the home side has won both times, with the most recent game (Jan. 10) having been played in 'The Lou'.  Seeing as how the Stars lost their most recent meeting to the Blue Notes, I could see there being some revenge factored into this game.  But let's get real.  Zubov is missing from the Star blueline and DAL was damn lucky that MIN was unable to exploit his absence.  The Stars have strung five wins together; of which they should also count themselves lucky.

Tonight the chickens come home to roost, and tonight the Stars shine a little less bright, as their luck runs out.
STL (ML)

NOTE:  I really hate Dirty Dallas.  They cheat and never deserved to win the cup.  If one of them were on fire by the side of the road, I wouldn't piss on 'em to put it out.  :-D


COL v VAN - The Avs have proven they can win w/out their better players.  However, that may change, when the wake up to find that they aren't playing in San Jose today.  Vancouver's win in ATL was impressive, though perhaps not as improbable as most (including myself) had predicted.  Clearly this is a proud Canucks team, and while winning any sort of game was nice, what they really would like most, is to win a game in front of the home town fans.   VAN has matched up well against COL this season; having split the season series to two games a piece right now.

The home side has claimed the W in the most recent two meeting between these two clubs, and tonight I believe Vancouver will push that number to three.  The Nucks should be getting at least one defensive player back in the lineup.  Hopefully more.  Either way.  VAN (ML)

NOTE: I also very much despise the Av-holes.  So, you know, eel free to fade me here as well; if you don't like what I'm peddling. - And look for the Canucks to lose when the Blackhawks skate into town.


NSH v SJS - Sharks (PL)  Just because, while I know that San Jose has owned Nashville over the years, and Erat is out of the lineup for the Country Cats . . . I also know that whichever way I bet on this team I'll likely lose, I may as well "throw" my money away in spectacular fashion.  Burn baby burn.  

NOTE:  I am a Sharks fan, and I can never seem to reconcile my head w/ my heart on this team, also . . . . well lots of "also", but we'll leave it at that as the main underlying factor for me here.

BOL Gentlemen.  Have a "Something Cool" Saturday.  Cheers y'all.

Yes, Nabby definitely willed his team to victory last night.

SO? Today?  I hadn't thought of it.  *hmm**

Maybe TBL & ATL (the two seem very evenly matched today),

CAR & NJD (both teams should be somewhat tired, and having to wake up and play at 1:00 isn't going to help either in the scoring department.

The Oilers are always an SO possibility in my mind

The Sharks almost took it to the SO last night - which you witnessed for yourself.

Maybe STL & DAL.

I'm not sure.  If I were you and looking to spot an SO, I'd look at the head-to-head history between the clubs playing today/tonight, and see how often the two have gone to the SO.  I wish I could be more helpful.  BOL though. 

Good stuff Tom Happy Hockey Day (I'm wondering if that's an official holiday, but I'm guessing it must be).

You're on the Kings and the Rangers, huh?  Hmm . . . that's gonna fuck w/ my head for a minute here.  But hey, if you've 'got a feeling' then I say "go w/ it".  And BOL w/ those plays . . . truly.

SO= MTL OTT

Cool beans Gbear.  I'm always happy to help. 

Now that's funny, b/c the MTL/OTT game popped in my head to, when I thought of SO's today . . . but I . . . I don't know those two can make to SO-land.  Maybe though. 

Right on Tom.  Well "unofficial" holidays can still be just as holy.

I could see the two away teams scoring W's in those games.  For me, however, I am a big believer in Conklin's abilities.  Even that dudes handful of losses seem more like illusions than actual losses to me (and I say that having lost money on at least one of those games of his that went L)

The Rangers are another scary team.  I wouldn't put it past them to win today.  I am putting a lot of stock in Lupul's return in that game.
Also I believe Biron has been pretty good at home.

Mainly Lupul though.  Big 'welcome back' W for him today in front of the home crowd.  That's what I'm hoping for anyway.  It's cool that we're on different sides though, at least one of us will win, and that's a whole bunch better than the book getting both of our bills.

NOTE:  Las Vegas lost 2.6 billion from the Giants Super Bowl victory last Sunday. 

New York Rangers
Steve Valiquette, Firm (Lower Hudson Online)
Last Game:    Feb 7 vs Ana, L 4-1
Goalie:    Lundqvist (L, 15/19 sv, 58:08 min)

Source: goaliepost.com

He's a solid No. 2.  I'll be curious to see if he can "pitch" another no-no. 

Here's a kookie, ironic post I just happened across - this one's for you Tom.

I Hate Ticketmaster
Published May 31, 2004 @ 12:34 in My 2 Cents

I hate Ticketmaster, but what choice do I have? Today, I purchased a couple of tickets to see The Tragically Hip. Each ticket was a fairly reasonable $30.50, and that includes taxes. I don't mind coughing up $30.50 to see a band like The Hip live. A couple of tickets should have cost me $61.00, right?

With Ticketmaster, there are a few gotchas along the way that you have no choice but to pay. For starters, they charge you a $9 "Convenience Charge" for each ticket you purchase. Isn't $9 awfully steep for their service? And it's not like it's $9 for your purchase, it's $9 a ticket so my two tickets cost me an additional $18 for the wonderful convenience of using Ticketmaster.

Furthermore, you have to pay an additional $3.75 "Building/Facility Charge" on each ticket. This amount goes to the Molson Ampitheatre, I assume. I had always believed the facility was paid for by the band and that amount would come out of the $30.50 ticket price. This $3.75 a ticket surcharge added an extra $7.50 to my bill, on top of the $18.00 convenience charge.

At this point, I'm just trying to cut my losses and get out of there before they make me pay some "Sunshine Tax" or "Oxygen Charge", but I still needed the physical tickets in my hand. This is where I really got pissed off. I've used Ticketmaster dozens of times (no choice in the matter, Pearl Jam didn't win apparently) and I've always chosen to pick my tickets up at a Ticketmaster location because this option was always free. Today, I had four options and none were free. I ended up letting them mail me my tickets for $3 because it would have cost me $3 to pick them up myself. As angry as this fact made me, what really made my blood boil was the fact my preferred option would have cost me $5.50 and it would have been the easiest for Ticketmaster. I wanted them to email me the ticket in PDF so I could print it myself. This option should be free because we're the ones supplying the paper and the ink to print the tickets. In fact, they should be paying us for selecting this option. How can they justify charging $5.50 for their system to automatically print the tickets to PDF and email it to me? I'll spend the $3 and let them pick up the tab for paper and ink. Of course, I shouldn't have had to pay anything, but I had no choice if I wanted to see The Hip on Canada Day.

When all was said and done, my $61.00 worth of tickets cost me $89.50. That about a 1/3 mark up. 32% was bullshit Ticketmaster surcharges. Keep in mind our governments got their cut from the original $30.50. $28.50 of my hard earned money went into the pockets of Ticketmaster today and that's just not fair. I hate Ticketmaster.

Source: www.torontomike.com/2004/05/

Hamrlik is out for Montreal for the 3rd straight game. That's why I'm leaving toward the over and Sens, but being a Habs fan, I'll just stay away from the game all together.

Great picks though. I agree with Philly, Pitt, Detroit, and Minnesota.

I think Florida will beat Boston tonight, Florida is playing their best hockey right now and have finally learned to play as a team.  Boston is playing in a b2b and the 1st period is always the best for a team in a b2b, but after that I think Boston's legs will give out and Florida will win in the end.  Florida ML.

I sympathize w/ your fellas misgivings aboui that MLT/OTT game.

It's Huet v Emery in that contest, and let's face it, Huet is likely the better net-minder between the two.

And the Habs being the great road team that they are doesn't help to ease my worries ther either.  Still I think I'm going to stick in out w/ the Sens today.

As I said in my prior post, the Over just might be the absolute best way to go in this game. . . . I still gotta think it over . . .

Henrik Lundqvist has allowed eight goals his past two games, but is 5-0-0 at Wachovia Center.

NOTE: "Henry" will not be keeping goal today for the Rangers.

I like the Over for TB/ATL,Atl looks good for the win..they won the last 3 meetings at home vs TB,in which all were over 6.5 Looking at a possible SO here.This season so far  Atl at home has had 1 SO and 2 OT's.

Liking the Under with NAS/SJ...SJ looks good for the win..Their last 3 meetings at home vs NAS were winners and all Under

Speaking of SO's I also like STL/DAL...DAL played in only two games at home this season vs STL and one was a SO

Might consider COL/VAN for a SO as well ...out of 4 meetings this season Van has 1 SO and 1 OT

Guts ,you're probably right about PHI for the win ,but seeing that they haven't won at home vs NYR in all 4 meetings this seanson,makes me want to lean toward NYR

Still checking things out

good morning gents........as always...excellent script guts....
Freakin Nabakov....could have had some nice $'s....the man was like a cement wall...sorry guts...went against your boys but couldnt lay -220 +     (did get the +1.5 with others).

Rangers....I find it very difficult to pull trigger on them....all good things must come to an end (their dominance over Phil)....shanahan out? Might not be such a bad thing.....maybe Rangers get Crosby/Kovalchukitis and win won for the gipper. Think I will roll dice with them....PL Rangers is nice but not any value.  LA----think your right....they played above their heads and put one to the Wings....everyone is going to play Wings tough from here on out to "stick it" to the "Man". Dont think they will against Pitt ....and dont even like PL with LA....Pitt has capability of hitin em hard and fast......and on Home ice. Pitt cannot afford to drop games they should win at this juncture in the season....Just hope Pitt plays all 3 periods instead of two.

Early games  for me
Ranger
Pitt

Going to leave o/u's early alone but could see Phil/Ranger over

Think your right....Wings....come out pissed.....they dropped the ball for a nice profit for LA takers...tonight their opponent isnt a live Dog....Hockey Day....loss to LA and playing Tor who shot their nut with the Habs....? Have to wait a few games to get a good upset brewing against RW


GL....back later