ML: 12-1 +12.20u
PL: 4-2-5 +2.77u
Totals: 9-6-1 +0.69u
TT: 13-8 +3.99u
Parlays: 1-0 +1.81u
2u Plays: 2-1 +1.60u
Finally we're back. It's nice to return to wagering on the NHL, but the break was nice in the way that I finally broke down and started capping basketball, mostly the NBA. Lot's of games on the card so I should have a play or 2.
Leans
Nashville comes into this game having been on an absolute tear before the All Star break. As I have stated numerous times in the past, Barry Trotz is the most under rated coach in the league largely due to his ability to constantly over achieve without many stars or high profile players. They rank #12 in the league scoring an average of 2.74 goals per game. On the road things stay pretty consistent where they sit #11 averaging 2.58 goals per game. Their Power Play has been lights out again this year where they sit #2 overall in PP% at 22.5% and #4 having scored 38 PP goals so far. On the road, they stay fairly consistent where they rank #7 in PP% at 21.3% and #7 having scored 17 PP goals so far this season. Their defensive performance thus far has been solid as expected from a Trotz coached team. They rank #22 allowing an average of 2.52 goals against per game. On the road, they are solid as well where they rank #24 allowing only 2.50 goals against per game. Their Penalty Kill remains above average again this year where they rank #12 in PK% at 83.1% and #20 having allowed 28 PP goals against this year. On the road we see a positive improvement where they sit #7 in PK% at 86.5% and #20 having allowed only 13 PP goals against.
Minnesota comes into this game wondering how this season could have gone so poorly after such a solid start. Minnesota was actually sitting in 1st place in the entire league after about the first month. Unfortunately, nothing has seem to go right since then, and on top of that their offense hasn't really had the ability to contribute much lately. Minnesota finds themselves currently sitting at #29 overall averaging only 2.24 goals per game. At home we see a much needed improvement where they jump to #23 scoring an average of 2.59 goals per game. Their Power Play, much like their offense is atrocious where they currently sit #23 in the league in PP% at 14.6% and #23 having scored 24 PP goals thus far this season. At home, we actually see a slight decrease in production where they sit #20 in PP% at 14.7% and #27 having scored only 10 PP goals this season. Minnesota's defense is definitely the more complete part of this team. They currently rank #23 overall allowing an average of 2.47 goals against per game this season. At home, we see a slight increase in production where they sit #21 overall allowing an average of 2.41 goals against per game. The Penalty Kill has been one of the few bright spots this season where they currently rank #14 in PK% at 82.9% and #16 having allowed 30 PP goals against this season. At home, we see a nice increase in production where they rank #5 in PK% at 86.8% and #27 having allowed only 10 PP goals against thus far this season.
Pekka Rinne is once again having a spectacular season. He is a big reason for Nashville's success this year, especially when referring to their defensive performance thus far. I expect him to keep up his consistent play this year, which saw him win 10 of his 11 starts in January. His stats so far this season are:
Overall: 28-11-4, 2.36 GAA, .925 SV%
Away: 12-5-1, 2.36 GAA, .928 SV%
January: 10-1, 1.73 GAA, .942 SV%
I know Nashville is on the road, and Minnesota is coming off 2 straight wins before the break, but I feel like this line should be a bit more expensive for Nashville backers. Nashville has only allowed more than 2 goals 1 time in their last 10 games overall. On top of that, Nashville has won 9 of their last 10 games as well as 18 of their last 23. Probably the most impressive stat to look at was that Nashville has not lost to a non-playoff team since December 6th, equating to 23 games. One more thing which really pads this stat is Minnesota has beaten a playoff team only 1 time in their last 8 attempts.
Nashville has always been one of my favourite teams to bet on because I feel that the books don't give them the respect they deserve. If this was a more public team such as Detroit, Chicago, Boston and they were in this exact same situation playing against the Wild, the line would be around -150 or -160 IMO.
Trying to narrow down the rest of the card but will definitely have at least 1 more play. As always, Good luck everyone.
Hey pinball I'm not sure if that will be the only play tonight. I'm really liking Columbus TT o2.0 (-113). There are a couple other plays that I do like but for now, this is definitely the only play I am really confident with. I'm capping hoops as well should check out the NBA forum. Good luck bud.
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