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St. Louis at Detroit
This is a huge game and is for the top spot in the NHL so I thought I would offer a preview.
Spot
No clear advantage for either team.
Both teams played Thursday and Saturday. Both teams have been excellent on one days rest:
STL is 15-7
DET is 14-7
This is the Blues first road game in 13 days and only their 2nd road game this calendar year. Detroit has their bags packed ready for a 5 game road trip after this tilt.
Trends/Stats
Detroit has won their last 16 home games! The Wings are 19-3 at home for 39 points. They are on a 6 game overall winning streak. They had an incredible stretch in the beginning of the home winning streak where they were covering the PL in almost all of the games. But 3 of their last 4 home games have gone to OT/SO. In fact, 5 of their 6 wins in the current overall streak have gone to OT/SO and the Wings have won them all by the same 3-2 score.
Detroit has allowed 2 goals or fewer in a season high 6 straight games.
St. Louis is only 8-12 on the road for 19 points. The Blues have secured 45 of their 64 points at home and must prove they can be more consistent on the road. They have taken down good teams on the road including Vancouver, San Jose, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh, but they are not near the same team as they are at home.
The Blues have won 4 in a row and 8 of their last 9 overall. They have yet to win 5 games in a row this season. They have won 4 in a row on now 4 occasions.
STL is 5-6 on the road under Hitchcock. The first 9 road games under his reign ended in one goal games. The last two road games for the Blues have been 3-0 games (1 win, 1 loss).
The Blues have not had an over in any of their 11 road games with Hitch. The under has hit 7 times, while the other 4 games were pushes.
STL has lost both games in Detroit this year. They played decently in both games, but ultimately the Wings were able to solve Elliott 3 times in both games, while Howard held down the fort and played brilliantly at times.
Halak is 11-3 in his last 14 starts with a 1.54 GAA & .939 save %
He is 13-6 since Hitchcock arrived with a 1.54 GAA & .939 save %
However, Halak is only 2-8 on the road this year.
STL is 2-1 in games decide in OT, but only 1-5 in shootouts
DET is 3-1 in games decided in OT and 5-0 in shootouts
STL has averaged only 2.05 goals per game on the road. Only 9.7 PP percentage.
DET has allowed an average of 1.73 goals against at home.
DET averages 3.86 GPG at home
STL averages 2.25 GA on the road
STL is 22-0 when scoring at least 3 goals in a game
STL is 7-18 when scoring fewer than 3 goals in a game
DET is 31-2 when scoring 3 goals in a game
DET is 1-14 when scoring fewer than 3 goals in a game
The above stats in blue indicate that the Wings are unlikely to win a very low scoring game. Their only win this year with less than 3 goals was in their 3rd game of the year. Throw in the stat that the Blues have yet to go over the total on the road with Hitch as coach and it appears the team that scores 3 goals in this game will win the game and the total will either push or go under. The 4 previous games this year went under 5.5 goals. You will not see too many more 5.5 totals in Blues games the rest of the way. The total in this game is 5.
Price
The opening line (-150ish) is in the same ballpark as the other two games in Detroit this year. I actually feel the line should be a tad higher considering the home and away records of these teams and the pathetic Blues PP (especially on the road). But the linemaker doesn't want to give too much value to an underdog that is battling for the top spot in the league.
Also, the Blues have been playing without two of their top 7 forwards (Steen and McDonald). Obviously they have still been winning even though their offense is far from top notch (18th).
Injuries
The Blues will probably error on the side of caution and keep Alex Steen and Andy McDonald out of the lineup until after the All Star break. The Wings are relatively healthy.
Misc. Thoughts
This is the biggest game of the year for STL. They want to prove that they can take down the Wings on the road. They let the first game this year at The Joe slip away in the 3rd period. Even though the Blues have won 4 games in a row, Hitch is not happy with the way they are playing. Too many defensive zone breakdowns and not enough scoring from any of the lines besides the Backes line.
I'm sure Babcock would like to see his team return to dominating home games and stop going to all of these OT games. The Central division is an absolute dogfight with these two teams and Chicago. Hell, Nashville is no slouch either and is in sniffing distance. You lose 2 games in a row in this division and you go from the top seed in the West to 5th seed, that is how close the Central has been.
My first instinct is to wait and take Detroit in regulation tomorrow, but that recent run of OT games is hard to overlook. I don't like STL in this road spot without all of their top forwards.
This will be the Blues 12th game this year vs the top 4 teams in the West (Det, Chi, Van, & SJ). Interestingly Brian Elliott has satrted in 10 of the previous 11 "big" games. The Blues went 7-4 in those games.
Halak's only start vs the top 4 was Hitchcock's first game as coach of the Blues (3-0 win vs Chicago). How does Halak respond on the road in a huge game? His last road game was huge to him since it was his return to Montreal. This will be a season high 5th straight start for Halak. Elliott will get the start Tuesday vs Pittsburgh.
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