*****For my leans, I will post a "LEAN" on each game's ML and Total*****
My ML record is kind of deceiving. I didn't follow my model/system for ML plays for the first day or two and started out 1-3 on them. Went back to what I did mid/late season last year and have gone 6-2 since then.
Obviously, same as everyone else, I like ML's and GM tot's the most, but I do very well with 1p totals.
You'll notice I like to look at L5's. I like L5 forms much more than Home/Away forms. As the season goes on, I will broaden that scope to 10-15 games (worked well from middle to end of season last year)
Here are my leans for Monday:
San Jose vs. New York R
San Jose. I'm seeing a PLR for the sharks of 4 and a PLR for the Rags at a 2.9. That's a huge difference, and it translates into a supposed line of -187. Now I'm just trying to figure out why it's so low.
In these cases I like to think of some mentality points: New York just seems to struggle against teams with a decent/good offense. Ottowa and Toronto (in my opinion) have solid front skaters, and they both beat the Rags. Winnipeg (I don't care how many goals they netted vs. Philly) does not have a great O. Before that, Edmonton (Good O) = Loss, Calgary (ehhh O) Win. I think they just come into these games against strong opposing offenses with the mentality of just trying to contain and pick their chances very carefully.
San Jose, on the other hand, has been rolling against teams that my model says are strong defensively: New Jersey, Boston, Nash, Detroit, and NYI. Why would they stop now?
I'm also looking at the 1p total. San Jose has scored 3 1p goals in their last 5 and given up 2 1p goals in their last. NY has also scored 3 in their last and given up 3 1p goals in the last 5
Leans: San Jose ML, FG Under, & 1p Under
Winnipeg vs. Florida:
If you have actually seen my picks before, you may know that I really, really like this Florida team. I think Versteeg and Weiss are two of the more underrated players in the league and I think Markstrom is just very unfortunate game away from being on top with Khabibulin as the best `tenders right now.
I don't like anything about the total in this game as the stats are kind of inflated and i just feel "weird" about the matchup
, but i've watched enough to atleast come up with a lean.
As far as ML is concerned, Florida is sitting at -155 right now, but my model says it shouldn't be more than -133. I see a lot that I like out of Winnipeg, but I'm listening to my heart too much in this one in the fact that I just think Florida can be a dark horse throughout the season and into the playoffs (I think they'll come in as the 7 or 6 seed and wreak some havoc), but other than their games vs. TB and Montreal, they haven't proven to or shown me what I'd like to see out of them. Soooo........
I'll more than likely sit this one out
Leans: Florida ML, FG Under
Nashville vs. Chicago:
I think this is more of a "public game" than anything. The line is -175 but my model says it should be around -118 according to the PRL's. Since the Phoenix-Vancouver stretch for Nashville, they've really put up some great team efforts. And since the first Avs win for the Hawks, they really haven't impressed me (not counting the win vs. the Jackets....I don't even know where to begin on how poor I think the Jackets are).
Looking over some numbers, what really stood out to me was the last 5 game averages. Chicago has shot the puck 171 times in the last 5, converting on 8.8% of them, and they've allowed 149 shots with an 8.7% goal rate. Nashville, on the other hand, is shooting with a 10.3% goal rate in their last 5 while only allowing 6.8% on 161 shots in their last 5 ---> all of this just confirms my belief that Nashville is the hot team, and I love riding momentum.
I'm not too worried about PP goals here, as Nashville is converting 10% L5 and Chicago is converting 6.2% L5.
Bottom line, I think Nashville has mostly switched to a game plan to adapt to their opponents game ever since they left Vancouver (with the Sharks as an exception....nobody is going to be able to adapt to them. They're way too talented across the board). They've been able to skate and score with the Bolts, and they've been able to grind it out on D with the Ducks. I just think this is just a play where the linesmakers are just trying to pull in money on extremely juiced lines from the "hungover weekend gamblers". They'll get their juice, and nashville will get the win.
Leans: Nashville ML, FG Under
As always, thoughts or opinions are welcome. Main reason I'm on this site is to share and collect knowledge from other bettors who love the game like I do, so let 'em rip.
Don't forget: tail or fade, just don't hate.
GL guys!
. I'm just trying to set this up to keep the most accurate and well-kept record possible by getting all my picks in 1 thread.
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