Someone take me OFF this BET

Let me get this straight. Memphis is getting 5 pts tonight. They are the better team (please don't argue with me about this). I agree that if Westbrook was paying it would be a totally different series. Fact is, he is no playing. I understand the home court advantage in okc is pretty powerful, as that crowd can get pretty rowdy. And this is the nba playoffs, where any team can beat any team on any given night. Seems like a great spot to play okc with their backs against the wall. But when I look deeper, I can't see the home court being worth 5 pts. Just doesn't make sense. Okc's big men are bad, and soft. Perkins is terrible and should probably be watching the game along side me. Ibaka is streaky, takes a lot of jumpers and when they don't fall, well you can disregard pts from him. The only man worth while who can get those easy paint points is collision. The rest of the scoring is a one man show from everybody's favorite KD. But when I look at Memphis, I see a team. A complete team. Defense. Rebounding. Physical. Guard play. Big men who finish. The 5 pts look so tasty. From the public percentages, looks like the sharper money is coming in on okc, although I don't concern myself with that too too much. But I also see lots of okc love on the covers board tonight. Please, if some veterans could weigh in for me on why I shouldn't take this bet, by all means, please do. I'd like to hear from some guys i respect on this board. Any response other than a silly,"okc takes this tonight" would be appreciated. Thanks.

Train, lvtruck, calbear, polar bear, professional, bet man, anybody??

haha.. nobody is going to read this. You are writing an essay. 

I read it and i makes sense, just cant argue against it tonight. Mem takes it!

*it

5 pts is a tad high but i really think okc wins this one fighting for there lives. Its amazing what teams can do when its a must win. If Ibaka can start hittin tht 15 ft this series would be different

I'm no veteran.. but I am going through that exact same thought process.. 

Only argument is that public perception is obv going to be: to take MEM +5 because of all of your reasonings.  Every point you made is correct.  So, as you know, perception is everything and thats how Vegas makes their money... that is obv why sharp money is on OKC tonight.

I also think Memphis is the better team but home court is just so huge with these 2 teams. On one hand the Grizzlies have been the best bet in the NBA playoffs but OKC could just as easily be 2-2 or up 3-1 in this series. I lean Memphis +5 but I'll most likely make an ingame bet.

Ibaka is probably the key tonight. @letsgoooo you said it yourself: "IF" Ibaka can start making shots...

Thanks for the responses fellas. Need2cover: cheers to you for being a hater.

Would take OKC if I played this game.

did someone get you off yet?

Quote Originally Posted by 2fade:

Train, lvtruck, calbear, polar bear, professional, bet man, anybody??

Great write-up, I read every word   I'm on OKC prolly because of the line, and my numbers, I'm a more of a totals guy BUT 105-95 OKC 

I'm definitely expecting an OKC tempo tonight...

I feel like Vegas is begging for Memphis backers.  I lean OK myself.  BOL on what you decide.

Think i have been swayed... OKC it is 

Hate betting overs in the playoffs, but I feel it.

Just placed:

Looking to hit the live betting. If OKC gets down early I'll go with the Thunder. Memphis is the better team but based off of experience in these playoffs I'll side with OKC.

I like OKC -4.5.  Memphis has dominate ATS but not really dominated OKC.  The games have been close and they are pretty evenly matched even without westbrook.  OKC will be playing for their lives and at home I expect more things to go their way.  And I expect the refs whistles to go with the home team and the second most important player to nba.