Posted:
#1
Books clearly don't know what to do with this line. They don't like the huge line swings and this opened at +7.5 with James/Wade and is now at+1.5. I suspect it can even get to Knicks - PTs before tip...if they are smart.
Miami giving points to the Knicks in this spot with the starting PG/James/Wade benched is lunacy.
Knicks won by 20 twice and were up 14 at the half in the 3rd game where these three players played. They match up very well against the Heat and will not be tricked into thinking their the Heat's bench is nothing to contend with.
If these three are truly out the Knicks should be laying 2.5 conservatively and 3 soldly. At least that is what I would comfortably lay.
Miami is being grossly overvalued for Spurs win.
Knicks will be MORE than motivated to play against the Heat as they always are regardless of benchings. Remember they are in a close seeding race with the Pacers (and Nets less so) to close out the season.
Don't think the Knicks think their 8 game win steak is a pittance compared to Miami's recent gargantuan one. They are playing the best basketball of the season right now (defensively, some of the best in the league in this 8 game run) even with Tyson in and out of the lineup. Tyson playing today is a bonus but not necessary to take the Knicks. Knicks will be more than keen on extending this steak against the one team they want to meet and beat in a 7-game series. Saying you took 3 of 4 regular season games from them (the second game in which Carmelo didn't even play on 12/6! and they still won by 20) means a great deal in terms of confidence and perception (less so to the bettor but not to the team).
If Wade and James definitely sit (Chalmers is a bonus but by no means a major consideration if Knicks are getting +PTs), jump all over the Knicks.
Not a suckers bet boys. Just the books too afraid to move a line more than their upper bound of liking.
Knicks +1.5 over Heat (conditional on Spolestra keeping James/Wade out)
0
to those that got +7
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