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Johnson's NBA Wednesday 3/13

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Legend
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Posted: #1
OVERALL RECORD:  192-186 (+335$)

Record vs. Spread/ML:  99-97 (+165$)
Record vs. O/U:  92-87  (+360$)
Record vs. Parlay:  1-2  (-190$)
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4-1 last night to once again give myself a little bit of a cushion.  Still have yet to finish a night in the negative...and I would really like to capitalize this extra work into a large profit for the end of the season.  Been noticing a nice difference...only loss last night was on the Celtics, who instead of playing motivated decided to give the Bobcats a gift.
 
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Posted: #2
Heat vs. Sixers -

B2B situation for the Heat...finally heading out on the road to try and continue the streak.  Line seems to be set right about where it belongs.  Heat just beat the Sixers in Miami by 9 last week...struggled at the start of the game and turned it on late.  Thaddeus Young had an incredible game.  Heat do very well as favorites of this spread (between 6-9 points).  Initial lean for this game would be towards the Heat (Sixers have trouble getting "up" for games) and more likely the UNDER  (Heat defense has been stepping up big time).
 
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Posted: #3
Bucks vs. Wizards -

It seems as though the Bradley Beal injury has really taken it's toll on the Wizards right now, so a big time lean would be towards the Bucks tonight.  Only win since Beal hurt his ankle was against the Bobcats, which doesn't really count for much in my mind.  If you don't think the injury to Beal is a big deal...take a look at the box score from their previous meeting right before the ASB.  Beal went nuts and put up 28 points.  Bucks allowed the entire Washington team to play very well...and the revenge factor should be big tonight.  Bucks fighting to get back up to the 7th spot in the Eastern Playoffs...as they sure as hell don't want to play the Heat in the first round
 
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Posted: #4
Wolves vs. Pacers -

This is a tough one for me...as EVERY sign points towards the UNDER...and this is generally the situation that I love to take the UNDER in a Pacers game.  They are going up against a much weaker offensive team on a B2B situation, traveling into town, and playing at home.  But my history has been that the Pacers like to put up 110+ in these types of games.  Would lean towards the Wolves getting the big points because I do believe they can continue the good feelings from last night's win, and the Pacers might be looking ahead to the Lakers game.  Probably a no play however.
 
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Posted: #5
Lakers vs. Hawks -

UNDER is looking pretty juicy to me right now...Hawks offense is all over the place, and the Lakers have actually begun to show a little bit of team chemistry and have actually been playing some defense.  Might also have to take a look into a Kobe Bryant prop, as he was realllly quiet last night in Orlando.  Now the Magic obviously had something to do with that, fouling Dwight Howard at just about every opportunity.  The only other times he's scored under 15 points was during that stretch when he decided to be the "facilitator" of the team and pass the ball most possessions.  I don't think that'll happen tonight.
 
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Posted: #6
Raptors vs. Celtics -

Should be a double digit win tonight for the Celtics.  Pierce is well rested, they barely showed up last night against the Bobcats because they know they have a nice home stand here over the next week.  Only player that logged big minutes last night was Jeff Green...and the Celtics at home with their St. Patty's Day uniforms are a different animal.  Most people will be betting on the C's tonight, but I'm not going to let that deter me...unless the line suddenly drops down.  Gonna do what I usually do with the Celtics and read up on the local quotes and such to get a better feel.
 
Legend
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Posted: #7
Ohhh...just realized Kenny Mauer and Marat Kogut are reffing the Celtics game tonight...gonna stay away because of those guys.  Mauer is ALWAYS fishy in Celtics games...just for some stats to back it up, here are the free throw totals in the 3 games Mauer has "reffed" the Celtics games this year...

36 - 20  vs. Atlanta
31 - 16  vs. New Orleans
36 - 20  vs. Milwaukee
 
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Posted: #8
Suns vs. Rockets -

No real feelings towards this game right now...if anything I would have to take a look at the OVER.  Last week these teams put up 112 in Phoenix, where the Suns generally play a lot slower.  No reason to think the Rockets won't be able to get close to the 120 mark or so.
 
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Posted: #9
Jazz vs. Thunder -

Thunder have amazingly covered their last six games as a double digit favorite.  Coming off a tough loss against the Spurs...should be able to come back fairly nicely tonight against the Jazz who have struggled against the better teams without Paul Millsap.  Also a possibility of a Durant prop because of MIllsap being out...don't really see how the Jazz will slow him down tonight...which would also open up an OVER play
 
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Posted: #10
Bulls vs. Kings -

I got nothing for this game.  Bulls are in a free fall right now...and I just dont trust either one of these teams
 
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Posted: #11
Knicks vs. Nuggets -

Big lean towards the OVER in this game along with most other people.  Not just because Carmelo is back for NY tonight, but I just don't see how the Nuggets will be stopped from getting inside the paint.  Knicks aren't exactly the fastest team defensively, and that's what you need to slow down the Nuggets.  With Melo back in the game and back against his old team, the motivation factor will obviously be there...this is the first time Melo has played in Denver since the trade.
 
Legend
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Posted: #12
Grizzlies vs. Clippers -

Don't know if I can jump off the Grizzlies bandwagon quite yet.  Clippers are just as hot however...and this will be the big game of the night with the Grizzlies catching up quickly in the Western Conference standings.  Total even seems just a touch too low...I think both teams should get to the mid to high 90's or more tonight.
 
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Posted: #13
Pistons vs. Warriors -

Still dont see a reason to be on the Pistons in a West Coast road game.  If someone can find a reason, let me know.  They are 1-7 ATS as underdogs at this number...2-12 ATS against winning teams in the 2nd half of the season...Warriors are 17-10 ATS vs. the East this year as well.  Number is high, but it's warranted
 
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Posted: #14
Mauer lives in Boston....Dolttttttttttttt...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
This is the first thread I open. Always great writeups and info. I do love Milwaukee and Boston on the spread 
 
Captain
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

Raptors vs. Celtics -

Should be a double digit win tonight for the Celtics.  Pierce is well rested, they barely showed up last night against the Bobcats because they know they have a nice home stand here over the next week.  Only player that logged big minutes last night was Jeff Green...and the Celtics at home with their St. Patty's Day uniforms are a different animal.  Most people will be betting on the C's tonight, but I'm not going to let that deter me...unless the line suddenly drops down.  Gonna do what I usually do with the Celtics and read up on the local quotes and such to get a better feel.

Is KG playing?
Bitcoin, not crypto.
 
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Posted: #17
Bucks +1
OKC -13.5
Nuggets -8.5
Heat -8.5 and under


 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by DaMeCabeza:

Bucks -1
OKC -13.5
Nuggets -8.5
Heat -8.5 and under


 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

Raptors vs. Celtics -

Should be a double digit win tonight for the Celtics.  Pierce is well rested, they barely showed up last night against the Bobcats because they know they have a nice home stand here over the next week.  Only player that logged big minutes last night was Jeff Green...and the Celtics at home with their St. Patty's Day uniforms are a different animal.  Most people will be betting on the C's tonight, but I'm not going to let that deter me...unless the line suddenly drops down.  Gonna do what I usually do with the Celtics and read up on the local quotes and such to get a better feel.
  
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

Jazz vs. Thunder -

Thunder have amazingly covered their last six games as a double digit favorite.  Coming off a tough loss against the Spurs...should be able to come back fairly nicely tonight against the Jazz who have struggled against the better teams without Paul Millsap.  Also a possibility of a Durant prop because of MIllsap being out...don't really see how the Jazz will slow him down tonight...which would also open up an OVER play

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

Knicks vs. Nuggets -

Big lean towards the OVER in this game along with most other people.  Not just because Carmelo is back for NY tonight, but I just don't see how the Nuggets will be stopped from getting inside the paint.  Knicks aren't exactly the fastest team defensively, and that's what you need to slow down the Nuggets.  With Melo back in the game and back against his old team, the motivation factor will obviously be there...this is the first time Melo has played in Denver since the trade.
 
 
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Posted: #22

cm you wanted a reason??

The Golden State Warriors looked like a team trying to crack into the elite amongst the top tier of the rugged NBA West, but have not fared well of late. Golden St. is just 5-12 over their last 17 games. The Pistons certainly haven't done much over their last 10 games where they are a 1-point win in Washington away from 0-10. Things are measured here against the line however, and that has positioned them in a favorable situation here. Golden State is just 1-7 ATS vs. a team that allowed 100+ in their previous game, and overall are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18, and this is a team that simply shouldn't be laying double digits right now. The Warriors have slowed things down to try to regroup and have played four straight to the UNDER, while Detroit is 8-2-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 after allowing 100+ in their previous game. Detroit has maintained the upper hand in this series at 7-3 ATS in the last 10, with five of the last seven playing to the UNDE R. Go with Detroit and take the UNDER

 
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Posted: #23
Heat vs. Sixers UNDER 193  (2.2 to win 2)

First game of a road trip for the Heat where they have higher profile games against teams like the Bucks and Celtics.  Can't imagine Spoelstra will have them going "full tilt" tonight against the lowly Sixers.  Focus will be shutting down Holiday driving to the middle...and forcing Hawes into tough shots.  I don't see Young going crazy like he did in the last matchup....I also don't see the Sixers shooting almost 50% from the field and from 3.  They put up 93 in that matchup...so let's drop them down about 5 points.

Prediction:  Heat 97  Sixers 88
 
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Posted: #24
Milwaukee Bucks -1  (1.1 to win 1)

No Ariza...probably no Beal for the Wizards...just can't see how they will be able to get the offense going.  They were able to put up a mere 90 points last night against Cleveland, and I don't see 90 points being able to take down the Bucks.  Last meeting Brandon Jennings really struggled, I expect him to have a much better performance tonight without much resistance on the defensive end.  Bucks have been doing well against the lower level teams, only losing against higher quality opponents in the past couple of weeks.

Prediction:  Bucks 99  Wizards 86
 
 
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Posted: #25
Lakers vs. Hawks UNDER 52.5 1st Quarter (1.1 to win 1)

Both teams traveling up from Miami, so I figure this one will start a little bit on the slower side, and then pick up from there...also the past couple games from the Lakers have started VERY much on the slow side. 

Prediction:  Lakers 25  Hawks 23
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