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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NorthernCapper's Saturday
NorthernCapper send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
NorthernCapper
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#1
Posted: 1/19/2013 1:22:25 AM
143-95-6 (60%) (+156.9 Units)
1 unit: 0-0
2 unit: 2-3 
3 unit: 39-23-1 
4 unit: 55-34-3 
5 unit: 46-31-2 
>5 units: 1-1

Yesterday: 7-4 (+14.6 units)

Saturday Plays;

5 units: 1st Half Golden State @ New Orleans -2

3 units: Golden State @ New Orleans -4
This is a risky game to lock in so early with the potential status of Lee and Curry potentially up in the air.  Lee i'm pretty sure will play against NO, he returned after rolling his ankle and seemed fine, but with flying you never know, sometimes injuries swell up and GS may play it safe.  Curry Could also return, but I'm somewhat doubtful.  Curry has shown this ankle injury of his is becoming more of a chronic issue.  

Lee and Curry have been the two best players for GS so far this year.  If neither of them can go that's really going to hurt them against a truly surging New Orleans team. Eric Gordon returning finally gives NO someone who can score the basketball, and they've turned that into success, winning 6 of their last 7 games, with quality wins over Bos, Hou, SA, and Dal included in that stretch of games.  

I like them to get off to a great start early in this one and continue that momentum into another win.  I feel odd laying points with a fairly unproven team vs a real scrappy warriors squad, but this is the 3rd game in 4 days for GS.  You have to imagine playing Mia and SA will tax a team.  Hornets is the play for me.

4 units: Sacramento @ Charlotte over 204.5
Two teams that really push the tempo and have zero concept of what to do on the defensive end of the floor.  Last 5 games SAC is giving up an incredible 114ppg.  Both teams give up over 103ppg on the season.  I see both teams wanting to come out with a good performance in this one.  Both teams are playing the 2nd night of a B2B which I believe hurts defence not scoring.  Over is the play for me.

Leans:
SAC -1
POR -4

BOL everyone!

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Unstoppable Force
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#2
Posted: 1/19/2013 1:28:38 AM
Good luck NC. What do you think about Under 199.5 in SA/Portland? Might make a bigger than normal play on that one 
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#3
Posted: 1/19/2013 1:30:17 AM
Never really done this before but I'm going to try to start predicting lines for games that haven't released yet.  Tough to do with NBA as the lines usually aren't released due to injuries.  That being said:

Predictions:

Mem @ Chi -1.5 o/u 179.5

Hou -2 @ Min o/u 204.5

Wash @ LAC -15 o/u 201.5 
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#4
Posted: 1/19/2013 1:35:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Unstoppable Force:

Good luck NC. What do you think about Under 199.5 in SA/Portland? Might make a bigger than normal play on that one 

I'm assuming you mean SA/ATL.  I don't really have any lean on that one. If i was making a play I'd take the under.  ATL averages 100.1 ppg at home while SA gives up 100.1ppg on the road. Off a B2B i can see SA giving up 100 to ATL, and we all know SA can score. What I would say is that if SA wins the game it's most likely going over.  The only way I see the game going under is if SA comes out a bit flat and ATL wins in a 96 - 90 type game which would be very possible.  My recommendation would be if you like the under to lean towards ATL plus the points instead.

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#5
Posted: 1/19/2013 1:54:32 AM
BOL!
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#6
Posted: 1/19/2013 3:20:30 AM
g.l. nice night last night.

Are you staying away from the Spurs hawks game?
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#7
Posted: 1/19/2013 4:09:42 AM
Nice write up. N.O. Certainly has alot in there favor. Public will pound GS
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#8
Posted: 1/19/2013 4:49:28 AM
Good luck capper, I'm always rooting GS, but will definitely follow you on the New Orleans if I find out curry isn't playing again even if it means I have to pay an extra point or two for it!
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#9
Posted: 1/19/2013 6:19:10 AM
hey capper, jw..wuts your initial bankroll? and how much is one unit? thanks. and keep up the good work. Always refreshing to see your leans/plays and writeups! 
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#10
Posted: 1/19/2013 10:54:01 AM
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#11
Posted: 1/19/2013 11:00:15 AM
BOL
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#12
Posted: 1/19/2013 11:03:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BatBatman:

hey capper, jw..wuts your initial bankroll? and how much is one unit? thanks. and keep up the good work. Always refreshing to see your leans/plays and writeups! 

My initial Bankroll was 10k.  1 unit for me personally is $200 but I use the unit scale instead so ppl can use it as a base to apply whatever $ amount to it they want.

Personally with these unit plays i've grown my bankroll from $10,000 to $31,380 since beginning of December when I started posted.  Profit of $21,380. 
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#13
Posted: 1/19/2013 11:07:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lewsparks1977:

g.l. nice night last night.

Are you staying away from the Spurs hawks game?

I am ya.  Tough game IMO.  Hawks are good at home, spurs on a B2B.  My leans would be towards Atlanta or the under. 

SA is 2-7 ATS last 9 road games
Under is 7-1 last 8 SA games overall
Under is 7-3 last 10 ATL home games

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#14
Posted: 1/19/2013 11:23:00 AM
Adding: 

5 units: Houston -3 @ Minnesota

4 units: 1st Half Houston -2 @ Minnesota

Minnesota recently is excelling in only one category, injuries.  Kevin Love is already out for an extended period of time, now Pekovic, their only solid starter goes down is listed as out indefinitely, and Alexey Shved looks like he'll miss tonights game with an ankle injury. 

The injuries have just gotten past the point of fighting through them for Minnesota.  Their D has been the biggest casualty of that, dropping from 5th in defensive efficiency in mid December, to 28th in January.  Pekovic being out means they lose their best post defender and rebounder meaning the defensive side of things can only get worse. 

With Pekovic out Minnesota is going to rely on a frontcourt of Dante Cunningham, Derrick Williams, Lou Amundson, and Greg Stiemsa.  That's just not going to win you many games in the NBA as 3 of those 4 guys wouldn't make roster on a number of NBA teams.

With Ahved out, Minnesota is stuck rostering only Andrei Kirilenko and Malcolm Lee at SF and SG, no backups, meaning the PG trio of Ridnour, Rubio, and Barea, all undersized pgs at best will have to take some time at SG.

Not a good sign with a high scoring Houston team coming to down.  Houston has dropped 6 straight as they've played 5 of their last 6 games on the road, with their only home game coming in a tough spot on the front night of a B2B vs the LAC.  6 straight losses is tough but all losses came against solid teams.  @IND, @DAL, @PHI, @BOS, @NO and the previously mentioned home game to the Clippers.  Houston is going to be hungry to finally get back in the win column.

Houston's MO has been fairly consistent this year, push the tempo, score the ball, but really don't pay much attention to the defensive end. This has hurt them against teams that either 
a) defend well (IND, BOS, NO)
b) score well and play some semblance of defence. (LAC)
Minnesota is neither of these teams.  They're a team right now that can't defend and can't score.  I don't see how they matchup with the depth or talent of Houston, and don't see how they score anywhere near 100 points to keep pace.


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#15
Posted: 1/19/2013 11:24:58 AM
Horford may be out. Should I be concerned of a small Atlanta lineup trying to push the pace against SA especially since they're traveling from the West. Spurs have also beaten this team Shorthanded in the past.
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#16
Posted: 1/19/2013 11:40:56 AM
I like that Houston play, alot! They're not dropping 6 to a banged up minny team. Minnesota has been fading alot in the late 3rd adn 4th quarter. Really missing K Loves triple doubles every night.
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#17
Posted: 1/19/2013 11:54:49 AM
NC good play with HOU -4, they should bounceback against a injury-ravaged Timberwolves team now that Pekovic is also out. 

12-6 on the Streak Monthly Board
Play of the Day: HOU -4 to get to 13-6
4 back of the leader but hoping I can string together 7 or so wins in a row.

Tough result with OKC -4, they couldn't close the door up 14 late third, 89-81 in the fourth tbey dried up at a bad time.

Roll Tide
BOL
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#18
Posted: 1/19/2013 12:04:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SuperSlapem:

Horford may be out. Should I be concerned of a small Atlanta lineup trying to push the pace against SA especially since they're traveling from the West. Spurs have also beaten this team Shorthanded in the past.

That would be my concern about the pushing the pace.  Why i'm staying away.  Not unrealistic for ATL to score 100 vs SA. Horford is listed as probably from what i've seen though.  My guess is he plays.
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#19
Posted: 1/19/2013 12:05:14 PM
Forbes, Runstopper -  BOL tonight guys.  Hope Hou comes through
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#20
Posted: 1/19/2013 12:07:26 PM
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#21
Posted: 1/19/2013 12:10:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NorthernCapper:


My initial Bankroll was 10k.  1 unit for me personally is $200 but I use the unit scale instead so ppl can use it as a base to apply whatever $ amount to it they want.

Personally with these unit plays i've grown my bankroll from $10,000 to $31,380 since beginning of December when I started posted.  Profit of $21,380. 

WOW!

That's awesome Cap!
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#22
Posted: 1/19/2013 12:19:56 PM
Nice work sir! Appreciate you posting your flows, keep up the good work.
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#23
Posted: 1/19/2013 12:23:32 PM

like your style NorthernCapper thank for posting. do you play NHL also?

 

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#24
Posted: 1/19/2013 1:29:38 PM
Telemaco - I play a bit of NHL recreationally. Find it hard to cap though. My 2 plays today are Winnipeg -130 (best home ice in the league and I'm going to the game so beware bias) and Colorado +140 (Minnesota brought in a lot of new pieces, no camp or preseason to let them gel). My NHL tip would be to ride veteran teams and teams with very similar lineups to last year. It'll be a tough first few weeks for teams that shook things up in the offseason IMO 
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#25
Posted: 1/19/2013 1:42:42 PM
hey nc would you still take -4.5 on the rockets? been following a system and chased the friggin rockets till now.
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