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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NorthernCapper's Thursday
NorthernCapper send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
NorthernCapper
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#1
Posted: 1/17/2013 12:46:44 AM
126-88-6 (59.5%) (+115.6 Units)
1 unit: 0-0
2 unit: 2-3 
3 unit: 35-21-1 
4 unit: 49-30-3 
5 unit: 39-30-2 
>5 units: 1-1 

Yesterday: 2-3 on game lines, 2-4 on halftime plays for 4-7 on the night.

Rough night last night.  Got carried away with the halftime plays.  Chased when I shouldn't have after the Chicago game went belly up.  Going to bounce back today with a winning card.  More discipled today and will stick to a smaller number of plays.


5 units: Miami Heat +3 @ Los Angeles Lakers
Miami are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings
Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings

The line here seems like  a major overreaction to 2 straight Lakers wins vs average to below average opponents.  If this game happens with the Lakers on a losing streak instead of a small 2 game winning streak, this line is probably Heat -4 or -5.  Heat have struggled recently but you know they'll get up for this game.  Was worried about the B2B angle, but with them gutting GS they were able to rest their starters almost the entire second half.  Dwight Howard may be in line for a big game in this one vs the small Miami lineup but I don't think it'll be enough.  Lakers biggest issue all year has been transition defence.  I don't believe 2 wins has solved that problem.  Kobe trying to matchup vs the other teams best defender worked well against Milwaukee but seems long term like it will only burn out Kobe.  Even in his prime doing what the lakers are asking him to do at both ends of the court would be exhausting.  It will be interesting to see how the Kobe as lead perimeter defender does against either Wade or Lebron.  It's one thing to lock down a smaller player in Jennings then it is to matchup with a much more physical Wade or Lebron.  Getting points with the Heat is a very rare thing.  I'm going to take it.

4 units: Milwaukee @ Phoenix -1
Milwaukee has undoubtedly been the better team as of late but I'm taking this game for really 1 reason.  Milwaukee has lost 24 straight games in Phoenix.  The second longest streak of any team on the road vs any opponent (only beat by GS's losing streak in SA).  Laying -1 as a home team is a very small line. I'll take histories side and look for a Phoenix team that's very desperate for a win, to extend Milwaukee's struggles at the US Airways Centre in Phoenix.

BOL to everyone! 
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#2
Posted: 1/17/2013 12:48:13 AM
GL
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#3
Posted: 1/17/2013 12:54:31 AM
I like the miami they crushed g state tonight and probs will beat the lakers by a couple i may try the ml as well
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#4
Posted: 1/17/2013 12:56:58 AM
i think its 27 game
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#5
Posted: 1/17/2013 12:57:58 AM
if you check the nba stats but yahoo says 24, anyway not important.
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#6
Posted: 1/17/2013 10:11:51 AM
^ May be.   I haven't actually back tracked through the schedule.  Just read 24 games.  May be 27 but I'm pretty sure the Mia/GS game showed 24 games as well.
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#7
Posted: 1/17/2013 10:17:27 AM
NC...do you like any of the over/unders?
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#8
Posted: 1/17/2013 10:23:45 AM
Adding: 

5 units: Miami @ Los Angeles Lakers over 204.5

Total has gone under in 4 of last 5 in the series, but this is the lowest total that a Lakers game has received in a long time.  Pau Gasol is set to return but I don't think that changes all that much.  Does add more size to LA which may frustrate Miami.  Like I said earlier I'm not buying into LA as a decent defensive team just because they held Milwaukee to 88 points.  Previous to that Mil game, LA has given up:

93, 116, 108, 125, 112, 107, 103, 87, and 126 points.

Don't see any sign that LA will be able to keep Miami from scoring.
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#9
Posted: 1/17/2013 10:30:52 AM
Is Dragic playing for PHX?
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#10
Posted: 1/17/2013 10:48:05 AM
Manassa - Last I checked both him and Dudley were probable
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#11
Posted: 1/17/2013 11:11:32 AM
Northern what are your thoughts on the NY Det game?
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#12
Posted: 1/17/2013 11:17:05 AM
yeah that bulls game hurt.....GL tonight love your plays and write ups
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#13
Posted: 1/17/2013 11:24:59 AM
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#14
Posted: 1/17/2013 11:28:06 AM
Only problem i see with the MIA Laker game is you will get 100% effort out of the fakers, Howard will hustle all game instead of walking, Kobe might play 48 minutes  and Artest will go 50% on 3s haha

Im leaning MIA also but never know which Laker team will show up, hopefully heat still on fire from last night
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#15
Posted: 1/17/2013 11:35:14 AM
Bovada just made the Suns/Bucks game a Pick 'Em! No spread. 
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#16
Posted: 1/17/2013 11:51:16 AM
Tough goings with that CHI game NC, couldn't hold a 19-point 3rd Q lead against a tired team...forced to sit at 11-5 on the month.

Slightly suspect with your plays as Miami is on a b2b and Milwaukee has played well sans the Laker game v a Phoenix team that can't be trusted.

I think NYK -5.5 or LAC -4.5 are solid plays today.  Knicks are rested and ready to get back on track v a Pistons team that is dreadful when they are not playing at home.  Plus, Melo has ended his 15-day fasting so he should be ready to return to early-season form.  Clippers playing a weak MIN team that is depleted with injuries, but there is a slight smell of trap there.

11-5 on the Streak Monthly Board
Play of the day: NYK -5.5 to get to 12-5

Roll Tide
BOL everyone
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#17
Posted: 1/17/2013 11:53:14 AM
Zman I feel ya on the MIA game, just a bit concerned with LAL probably going full throttle.
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#18
Posted: 1/17/2013 11:53:47 AM
Heat
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#19
Posted: 1/17/2013 12:04:05 PM
Nice info run stopper. Miami isn't really on a b2b. They really only had to play a half against Gs and its not like there is much travel between there and LA.

NY I don't mind but I wouldn't lay -5.5 on the road. Detroit like you said is awful away from the palace but they're at home this game where they've come away with some big wins. I'm not buying in 100% to this melo fasting stuff. I think there have been some struggles just coming from on the court for him and the entire Knicks team that es hoping to erase with one sweeping statement about fasting. Knicks are still the better team but I don't like laying that many on the road. Hope you hit though.

I do really like LaC. Minnesota is so banged up right now and have zero D. I most likely will jump on the clippers as well but would like to look into it a bit more.
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#20
Posted: 1/17/2013 12:07:09 PM
Zman - you most likely will get hustle out of Howard. Idk about the world peace thing. Kobe is going to have to put everything into this one. The lakers have all the talent in the world but we've been saying that all year. This isn't their first marquee matchup. That being said LA could very well put it together with their big 4 and win this one. That would def bring some excitement back to LA. I'm not counting on that though. I'm going to take the established big 3. And take Lebron who's owned Kobe in H2H matchups throughout his career. BOL
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#21
Posted: 1/17/2013 12:23:31 PM
hi, been following you for quite a while now. Just wanted to say thx and really appreciate your write ups.I really like MIA and the over in that game as well. Also leaning LAC.

Was wondering what you think about the O/U in MIL/PHX

some stats:-
PHX - in the last 20 at home, the under went 14/20
MIL in the last 20 on the road, the under went 12/20

PHX - last 5/6 went under at home
MIL- last 9/13 went under on the road.

The over b/w the two teams has been hitting 7/9 in PHX
and 13/18 overall.

last game was in MIL and had 207points.. 

I was leaning to the under here but with Dudley back I'm having some doubts,, when he played vs MIL he had 18pts..

Was just wondering what your thoughts are on the O/U?
thx!

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#22
Posted: 1/17/2013 12:35:57 PM
Hey StevieZ - I was looking at this game earlier and I'd put more weight into the recent trends of unders then the matchup trends of overs. Phx and Mil over te last few years were much faster paced on offense then they are right now. Total seems too high IMO. I'd take the under and stick with your intial gut play. but I could see the case for the over that makes you nervous.
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#23
Posted: 1/17/2013 12:37:32 PM
tyvm and BOL tonight
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#24
Posted: 1/17/2013 12:43:30 PM
fwiw the NY/DET game is being played in London and I would expect more NY fans imo.
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#25
Posted: 1/17/2013 12:45:37 PM
NC the game is in London. So technically Detroit is "home" but in essence it's a neutral site, which will probably feel more like a Knick home game as I imagine they have more of a global following.
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