|5 units: Under 190
Posted: 1/8/2013 1:48:59 PM
4 units: Atlanta +1
Road team is 10-1-1ATS in the last 12 meetings
Atlanta is 5-0SU in last 5 games vs. Minnesota
Atlanta is 5-0SU in last 5 games in Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-4ATS last 5 games
Total has gone under in 6 of last 9 Atlanta road games
Total has gone under in 13 of last 17 in the series @Minnesota
Total has gone under 6 of last 9 in the series
2 top defensive teams with 2 below average offenses take the floor today. Combine that with long list of Timberwolves either out or banged up and i see this being a low scoring game with the advantage falling to Atlanta. Without Kevin love, there really isn't anyone on Minnesota who can score the ball. Ricky Rubio gives them a slight boost passing the ball and setting up chances, but doesnt help the shots actually fall. I see Minnesota keeping the pace of this one down at home but I don't see them being able to come away with a win in this one. With Love out, the role of leading scorer falls on Pekovic a nd his 15ppg. Pekovic vs Horford should be a great battle that will potentially cancel each other out depending on how banged up Pekovic is.
I see Josh smith as being a major factor in this one as he causes matchup problems for Minnesota, the best option for Minnesota would be to probably put Kirilenko on him, but i see Smith having a solid game.
At full strength these two teams would be almost identical to one another, anchored by solid front courts with versatile PFs, but with below average backcourts, but with the loss of the T-wolves best player in Love, and with neither Pekovic or Rubio at 100% a distinct advantage falls to Atlanta. I like Atlanta to come away with the win in the under.