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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NorternCapper's Atlanta @ Minnesota
NorthernCapper send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/8/2013 1:48:59 PM
5 units: Under 190

4 units: Atlanta +1

Trends:
Road team is 10-1-1ATS in the last 12 meetings
Atlanta is 5-0SU in last 5 games vs. Minnesota
Atlanta is 5-0SU in last 5 games in Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-4ATS last 5 games
Total has gone under in 6 of last 9 Atlanta road games
Total has gone under in 13 of last 17 in the series @Minnesota
Total has gone under 6 of last 9 in the series

ATL
MINATL
MIN
OffFor (Rank)FG%3P%FT%Reb
94.1 (21)
96.9 (20)
46.0
42.4
39.2
29.5
69.8
73.2
39.5
47.4
DefAgst
FG%
3P%
FT%Reb
93.1 (3)
93.1 (6)
44.3
42.4
37.9
32.1
75.6
76.4
41.8
43.5

2 top defensive teams with 2 below average offenses take the floor today.  Combine that with long list of Timberwolves either out or banged up and i see this being a low scoring game with the advantage falling to Atlanta.  Without Kevin love, there really isn't anyone on Minnesota who can score the ball.  Ricky Rubio gives them a slight boost passing the ball and setting up chances, but doesnt help the shots actually fall.  I see Minnesota keeping the pace of this one down at home but I don't see them being able to come away with a win in this one. With Love out, the role of leading scorer falls on Pekovic a nd his 15ppg.  Pekovic vs Horford should be a great battle that will potentially cancel each other out depending on how banged up Pekovic is. 

 I see Josh smith as being a major factor in this one as he causes matchup problems for Minnesota, the best option for Minnesota would be to probably put Kirilenko on him, but i see Smith having a solid game.

At full strength these two teams would be almost identical to one another, anchored by solid front courts with versatile PFs, but with below average backcourts, but with the loss of the T-wolves best player in Love, and with neither Pekovic or Rubio at 100% a distinct advantage falls to Atlanta.  I like Atlanta to come away with the win in the under.

BOL.
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#2
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:04:39 PM
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glenndef62
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#3
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:19:31 PM
ATL's recent play has been poor, NC.....on other side but GL tonite !!!...........
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#4
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:27:26 PM
Nice , with you on the hawks

Best of luck
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#5
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:29:12 PM
Like it!  BOL!
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#6
Posted: 1/8/2013 4:37:01 PM
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#7
Posted: 1/8/2013 4:46:44 PM
Another trend in your favor:

The Timberwolves are 1-13 SU in their last 14 games versus the Hawks.


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#8
Posted: 1/8/2013 4:57:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glenndef62:

ATL's recent play has been poor, NC.....on other side but GL tonite !!!...........

ATL recent play may be poor but Minnesota's has only been worse.  Plus short handed.  Nothing is a lock though.  BOL!
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#9
Posted: 1/8/2013 4:59:27 PM
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#10
Posted: 1/8/2013 5:01:14 PM
Great read.. These were all considerations I was thinking too when I made my play earlier. Minny being completely depleted and as you said, Smith is the key factor. He has been in a slump, but can't go on forever. I put money on tonight's game to see Smith turn it around.
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#11
Posted: 1/8/2013 5:05:19 PM
^agreed that will be te decider. If smith struggles and can't snap his slump Minnesota will probably win. My $ is on him playing well. BOL
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#12
Posted: 1/8/2013 5:06:03 PM
bol
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#13
Posted: 1/8/2013 5:09:15 PM
I actually like this better than the INDY and UNDER plays.  Good luck tonite! 
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#14
Posted: 1/8/2013 5:28:30 PM
Hey NC, the Wolves coach Adelman is out tonight due to personal reasons. Is this more of a reason to take ATL +1? Thx
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#15
Posted: 1/8/2013 5:32:49 PM
^Coaching is so hard to cap for.  My take on it is generally if it's a last minute change (sick/personal) that causes the coach to miss a few games like it is in this scenario i think it hurts Minnesota since they're already relying on a starting lineup that generally doesn't start together and really doesn't have any real strong on the floor leadership.   

In other scenarios, specifically firings (like Milwaukee tonight) I think that often either wakes up a team or gives a better locker room atmosphere.  I feel firings generally help the team, at least short term.

Just my feelings on it though.
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#16
Posted: 1/8/2013 5:36:24 PM
That's what I was thinking - easy to over-think these things too, thanks. BOL
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#17
Posted: 1/8/2013 6:36:30 PM
What's NC bad night for me last night I'm on this one good luck
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#18
Posted: 1/8/2013 6:51:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NorthernCapper:


ATL recent play may be poor but Minnesota's has only been worse.  Plus short handed.  Nothing is a lock though.  BOL!

GL, my man.......like pete carroll's squad, I jacked and pumped !!!....GL tonite !!!..............

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#19
Posted: 1/8/2013 6:55:16 PM
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#20
Posted: 1/8/2013 7:08:54 PM
Wish I would have followed on Boston and the over last night.  U saw something I did not.  Good luck tonight.              
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#21
Posted: 1/8/2013 7:41:36 PM
BOL 
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#22
Posted: 1/8/2013 7:50:22 PM
Atlanta
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Rlt3g
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#23
Posted: 1/8/2013 8:11:50 PM
BOL to us! 
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#24
Posted: 1/8/2013 8:31:45 PM
ATL shittng the bed as usual
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#25
Posted: 1/8/2013 8:39:39 PM
These bets are toast
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