Pete NBA thread

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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Pete NBA thread
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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Posted: 1/8/2013 1:00:41 PM
I've been watching the NBA closely this season and I have been doing fairly well so I am going to start tracking my plays.  I created an excel data base w/ various up to date statistics / trends / etc ..  I use these stats, trends, and gut feeling to produce my plays.  

A few key stats I use for my total plays are; Pace (avg possessions per game), Offensive efficiency, where the majority of shots are taken from (at the rim, 3 to 9 ft, 10-15ft, 16-23 ft, and 3pters), and the fg percentage associated to each shot.  I compare this to the other teams defense as well.

Ex; for 'over plays' I look for fast paced teams that have high offensive efficiency at or near the rim..  This is just the first part of my analysis as vegas adjust for this as well.  Second thing I look at for total plays is if the team is rested or not and I take a look at near term trends.  Last thing I do is look at line movements.  

The goal is simple..  to average 55%+ winners throughout the season..  I am not trying to hit home runs..  just looking for plays that have an edge

1u = $100   (3u max play)

AP
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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Posted: 1/8/2013 1:10:00 PM
1/8/2013

Heat / Pacers Under 187, 1 unit 

My spreadsheet has this total at 184.5.  The pacers are great at slowing the pace of play while on defense.  They are one of the most efficient defensive teams in the league.  My statistics say that if a team were to have 100 possessions against them they would give up an avg of 90 points..  the league average is 102.3.

Prediction:  93-89 Heat  (182 points scored)

Concerns:  Both teams are well rested (but this could help on the defensive side of the ball in this match up).  Also, Miami is one of the most efficient teams on offense in the league (avging almost 110 pts per 100 possessions).

AP
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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Posted: 1/8/2013 1:27:47 PM
1/8/2013

Lakers / Rockets Under 219, 1 unit 

Houston averages 99.6 possession per game.  If Houston has 100 possessions in a game they average 105 points.  They are the 7th ranked team in Offensive efficiency.  But they are 2nd in points scored (.1 behind the Spurs).  

The Lakers average 96.4 possessions per game.  If they hit 100 possessions they average 106 points.  

Key factors in this game:  Gasol & Howard are both out.  

I believe this will still be a fast paced game but I am betting that the Lakers struggle to get easy buckets inside.  

Prediction:  111 - 98 Houston

Concerns:  Houston has put up 120+ in 4 of their last 10 games.  This over can definitely hit if Houston & LA score at a high percentage.  I just see value in the under.  

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apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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Posted: 1/8/2013 1:34:04 PM
1/8/2013

Philly 76ers -110, 1 unit

This match ups fairly even.  I'd give Brooklyn a slight edge.  Statically these teams are very identical.   

The 76ers are coming off 8 consecutive road games (went 2-6) and have lost 3 straight.  I believe they will snap their losing streak tonight against Brooklyn.  

Prediction:  94 - 90 Philly

Concerns:  Brooklyn has won 5 of 6 since Avery Johnson was fired.  

AP


Gregzy PM Gregzy
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Posted: 1/8/2013 1:36:18 PM
Bol! I'm on Heat / Pacers Under too!
ImInTheMoney PM ImInTheMoney
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Posted: 1/8/2013 1:40:54 PM
I think the heat/pacers under is the strongest of the bunch myself.
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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Posted: 1/8/2013 1:41:46 PM
Gregzy   Best of luck to us both! 
Drew99habsfan PM Drew99habsfan
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Posted: 1/8/2013 1:42:08 PM
Nice write up! agree on both the unders BOL
1TimeLucky1 PM 1TimeLucky1
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Posted: 1/8/2013 1:49:42 PM
Good to see you ap...
Missed you in college football this season. Always top notch analysis.

GL get that LOOT
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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Posted: 1/8/2013 2:06:18 PM
ImInTheMoney 

Drew99habsfan 

1TimeLucky1  I had my worst CFB season ever!  Lol!  My overall record wasn't terrible.  I think I missed every big bet I played.  Well, except for Bama last night.  I loaded up on Bama -9, Overs, and ND under 14.5.  It was a sweet night.  
1TimeLucky1 PM 1TimeLucky1
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Posted: 1/8/2013 3:00:28 PM
I took the first few weeks off and it sure paid off. Previous years I'd start off stuck after the first couple weeks and play from have to play from behind the rest of the season. Would have some good then some bad weeks. This year I was preoccupied and couldn't spend the time at the start of the season. A guy I work with was gettin slammed so didn't feel like I was missing much. He's actually the reason I came back.
1st bet was the Thursday night bills/fins 2h. It lost...lol. He called me and said he couldn't get in would I put it in for him. Ended up stuck like 3k before something happened man. Don't know what it was but sure as hell glad it did. I am proud to say I busted my book. 
Woooo hooooo!!!!
Woke up yesterday to a message on the homepage of my locals website that said wagering has been suspended. I took his a$$ for close to 70k since nov. 
didn't get down on last nights game, but glad you hit it hard. Didn't think dame would perform under the bright lights. A lil stage freight seemed to be in order. Saban is a beast.

Still can't believe I busted my book, what a feelin 
GL again my man.
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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Posted: 1/8/2013 3:57:08 PM
1/8/2013

James Harden (points) Under 29.5 (-120), 1 unit 

Harden has struggled in prior match ups against Kobe; scoring 15 and 20 points.

Harden has averaged 26.3 points per game this year (Ranked 5th)

In Harden's last 20 games he has only gone over 29.5 points 7 times or 35%

Concerns:  None.  I am actually pretty confident in this bet.  I think Parsons, Patterson, Asik & Morris may take a few points away from Harden due to the LA big men being out.  

Prediction:  24 points 


AP

apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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Posted: 1/8/2013 3:58:25 PM
1TimeLucky1   Busted your book?  Damn that is impressive.  My book is way to big to bust.  I believe the guy I run things through is part of a multi million dollar operation.  It is pretty impressive.  
holydiver PM holydiver
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Posted: 1/8/2013 4:13:24 PM
hi  peterson I do not know much about the nba but decided to follow you tonight in your UNDER 187 in your Miami play. I got it at 186.5 do you think that is ok? Thanks for your time
1TimeLucky1 PM 1TimeLucky1
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Posted: 1/8/2013 4:21:10 PM
Said it was his worst year ever and I was the icing on the cake. Prefer a local. I got burned by fulltilt, so don't really want to go off shore. 
How do you like 5dimes? Ever have problems with payouts? How long does it take for a payout? 

Sorry to clog ur thread but now Im realizing I need a new home.
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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Posted: 1/8/2013 4:22:03 PM
holydiver   My prediction is that it will land around 182..  My spreadsheet indicated the proper total for this game should have been set around 184.5 - 185..  It just all depends on how the pace of play develops..  Since that is the case, the value is definitely in the under, as both teams average less than the league average in # of possessions per game.  
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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Posted: 1/8/2013 4:25:43 PM
1TimeLucky1 I use a local - he is just big.  You use to play on ftilt also?  I really miss online poker..  I don't have to time to play live as I have a full time job.  

slowrollin78 was my sn on ftilt
http://www.pocketfives.com/profiles/slow_rollin78/

Had some decent cashes back in the day  Got most of it pulled out in time..  can't remember how much I left in their..  maybe 2-3kish 
apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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Posted: 1/8/2013 4:31:15 PM
1timelucky1 - Check out this bad beat vs Matusow...  

https://www.pokertableratings.com/replayer/index.php?site=fulltilt&key=1284486769&hash=9523620922

I spent some time trying to run it up big at PLO..  I'd win at 2/4 - 5/10 .. and would run terrible at 25/50 when I was taking a shot.  

In the hand above, Matusow was in complete donk mode.  KJ1010 is definitely not a strong hand, but I had the button, and knew Mikey M was eager to lose a big pot.  

I cBet turn. .he calls..  I would have slowed down.. but I binked my 10..   I decide to fire again..  he re pops it w/ aces and drawing to a 4 for a str8..  so he had 6 outs at most (A, A, 4, 4, 4, 4)..

and ofc..  

Good times =)  

1TimeLucky1 PM 1TimeLucky1
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Posted: 1/8/2013 4:48:52 PM
Sick hand brotha, don't think he worries much about gettin it in bad. 
holydiver PM holydiver
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Posted: 1/8/2013 5:45:29 PM

thank you pete for your time lets get it

$1000/ 1100

apeterson8809 PM apeterson8809
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Posted: 1/8/2013 6:28:41 PM
1TimeLucky1  

holydiver  What is your standard bet size?  
ManassaMauler PM ManassaMauler
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Posted: 1/8/2013 6:33:14 PM
bol
holydiver PM holydiver
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Posted: 1/8/2013 6:39:34 PM
WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY STANDARD? WELL I CAN TELL YOU I WAS LAYING 3000 TO 5000 A CLIP IN CFB AND THE NFL BUT FOR NOW IN THE NBA NOW STARTING OUT WITH BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 A PLAY
holydiver PM holydiver
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Posted: 1/8/2013 6:48:15 PM
HEY MAULER HAPPY NEW YEAR
T9X PM T9X
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Posted: 1/8/2013 6:52:31 PM
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