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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Season Win Totals
tommy_covers send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 9/15/2012 12:47:58 AM
All right, tear them apart, but don't be an idiot about it though

Eastern Conference

MIAMI 58.5
INDIANA 57
PHILADELPHIA 49
BOSTON 48.5
BROOKLYN 46
NEW YORK 46
CHICAGO 45
MILWAUKEE 43.5
Atlanta 41
Toronto 35
Detroit 34
Washington 33
Cleveland 31
Orlando 24
Charlotte 15

Western Conference

LA LAKERS 61.5
OKC 60
SAN ANTONIO 58
LA CLIPPERS 54
MEMPHIS 50
DENVER 48.5
DALLAS 45
UTAH 45
Minnesota 44
Phoenix 39.5
Golden State 38
Portland 34
Sacramento 31.5
New Orleans 29.5
Houston 27

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#2
Posted: 9/15/2012 2:14:45 AM
Toronto OVER 35
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#3
Posted: 9/15/2012 2:15:53 AM
Phoenix under 39 as well...
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#4
Posted: 9/15/2012 3:09:04 PM
looking at toronto closer -- well coached defensive minded toughness. DeRozan is a good player. they really do have a good roster and weapons in the front court especially. depth is a little sketchy. if the big V player is better than advertised, I'd give them a chance to top 35.5 but I just think there are 8 better teams in the east and it will be hard to win 35.5 games overall
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#5
Posted: 9/15/2012 4:27:12 PM
i think Phoenix and Sacramento in the west have the talent to make a run at a higher win total , at least a higher percentage of wins than last year....PHX to contend for the final playoff spot ... then again the West is tough and PHX is on the outside looking in playoff-wise, really like the Dragic-Scola-Gortat combo I think that keeps them in some games. 39.5 might indeed be a shade too high
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#6
Posted: 9/18/2012 2:37:08 AM
Boston & New York > Philly
New York > Brooklyn
Detroit < 30 wins
Hornets > 35 wins
Houston = 2nd worst team in the league (22-24 wins)

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#7
Posted: 9/18/2012 4:04:21 AM
JAAAAAAAAPAAAAAAAN
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#8
Posted: 9/26/2012 4:37:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shaps17:

Boston & New York > Philly
New York > Brooklyn
Detroit < 30 wins
Hornets > 35 wins
Houston = 2nd worst team in the league (22-24 wins)


I will look at Philly harder, I agree Boston should be higher. I think Philly underachieved and Doug Collins likes the retooled roster, their first 8 are solid.

I am keeping Philly above New York I think Amare and Carmelo will struggle 

Detroit is a team I am interested to watch. HC Frank is one of the hardest workers in the game, and they did go 21-21 down the stretch last year once the schedule settled down. They got rid of one of the 2 locker room problems (Bench Gordon), only Charlie V remains. That said, the roster is bottom 10 in terms of developed talent. If Drummond can come in and give them a push off the bench, block shots, rebound, move people around, I think there are some capable pieces here to play the way LFrank wants it. 30-52 isn't out of the question. 
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#9
Posted: 9/26/2012 4:43:31 PM
Houston I have bottom 5 in power ratings and bottom 5 in wins at 32.9 percent 27 wins that is usually were the bottom feeders top out at, I have Charlotte in a league of its own with Orlando and Cleveland and Obviously the Rockets from a power ratings perspective. 

The book is out on Lin. That supporting cast is highly suspect and there is little depth. 

New Orleans could be poised for a jump with HC Williams, another top 10 coach he is keeping the franchise together. They have 3 good pieces Gordon-Anderson-Davis but nothing in the way of depth and a Rookie PG....let's hope Mr. Rivers is ready to go if NOH wants to approach 35 wins.
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#10
Posted: 9/27/2012 6:59:56 PM
I might be reaching a little bit with Hornets since their top 3 players playing together for the 1st time.  But Im a huge fan of Eric Gordon's game and I think their top 3 players are extremely versatile and can mesh very well.  Vasquez might be the pg but Gordon will do most of the orchestrating when it comes down to it.  
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#11
Posted: 9/29/2012 3:22:47 AM
My favorites:

Lakers UNDER
Phoenix UNDER
Minnesota UNDER
Atlanta UNDER
Cleveland OVER
New Orleans OVER

The Lakers are way, way too high. 55 wins max for this team. We don't know if Dwight Howard will even start the season, Kobe is very old and didn't get much of a break in the offseason due to the Olympics, and while Steve Nash is still great, he's turning the ball over more often. No depth either.

How on earth is Phoenix going to be a .500 team? No Channing Frye, absolutely nobody at the 2, Scola's getting older, Dragic may have a huge letdown now that he has a contract...I just don't see it.

Minny will get out of the gates very slowly without Rubio IMO. Batum would've been a perfect player for this team but unfortunately the Blazers matched. Not enough depth/athleticism to compete.

Hawks are the likeliest team to tank. Once they unload Josh Smith this team will freefall and then load up in the Draft. They are in a garbage division but I think Charlotte and Washington will be significantly better.

Like Cleveland a lot. Waiters had a terrible preseason but Kyrie is a legitimate top 20 player in the league, Tristan Thompson is a solid emerging paint presence and I like Tyler Zeller running the floor. They will benefit playing against a weak division made even worse by the Derrick Rose injury. Possible 8 seed.

New Orleans was nowhere near as bad as their record last season. With Gordon back healthy, Anthony Davis roaming the middle and Austin Rivers providing a spark off the bench, I definitely think they'll clear 30 wins. Youth is a concern but Monty Williams gets maximum effort out of his players.
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#12
Posted: 9/29/2012 6:17:23 AM
Miami OVER -
TrailBlazers OVER -

Charlotte UNDER






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#13
Posted: 9/29/2012 4:06:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rollbama1237:

My favorites:

Lakers UNDER
Phoenix UNDER
Minnesota UNDER
Atlanta UNDER
Cleveland OVER
New Orleans OVER

The Lakers are way, way too high. 55 wins max for this team. We don't know if Dwight Howard will even start the season, Kobe is very old and didn't get much of a break in the offseason due to the Olympics, and while Steve Nash is still great, he's turning the ball over more often. No depth either.



Disagree. Dwight back for opener. Nash speaks for himself, is a major, major improvement over any PG play from last year. With superstar players around him, hard to turn it over that much. Kobe no longer has to be the focal point. There are other scorers. Save some energy for defense, him and World Peace two of the league's premier defenders, coupled with Howard? Wow.

I actually like the depth with Blake off the bench, Meeks as a gunner, Hill and Ebanks two experienced lakers and then you add Jamison, a legit 6th man. 

I don't want to bet into inflated numbers but I would take OVER 55 in a heartbeat. I hope Vegas throws that number out there. 
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Posted: 9/29/2012 4:53:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rollbama1237:

My favorites:

Lakers UNDER
Phoenix UNDER
Minnesota UNDER
Atlanta UNDER
Cleveland OVER
New Orleans OVER


How on earth is Phoenix going to be a .500 team? No Channing Frye, absolutely nobody at the 2, Scola's getting older, Dragic may have a huge letdown now that he has a contract...I just don't see it.


I can agree with you on PHX and have said as much earlier. Probably revising this one around 36 wins. Anything higher looking UNDER all the way.  Moving them into the POR range of 34-36. 
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#15
Posted: 9/29/2012 8:34:55 PM
Indiana that high? Really???
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#16
Posted: 9/30/2012 11:05:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by javin:

Indiana that high? Really???


Weakest division in the East. Games against the Pistons, Cavs, Bucks, Bulls without D-Rose. I would peg Indiana to finish 13-3 or better against their division foes, depending on when Rose returns.

Vogel will have to ride his starters hard, one of the top-8 units in the game with the emergence of Hibbert. G Hill ready to take the reins at PG for the departed Collison (DJ Augustin backing up)

Not too crazy about the depth at center nor on the wing. Some question marks here.

I will take a harder look at this number but perphaps you are correct, 54-55 wins would still be an improvment over last year's .636 pct 
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#17
Posted: 10/2/2012 2:12:12 PM
Grizz UNDER 50 maybe?...so many teams got better...they made no key additions and lost OJ MAYO... team still has talent dont get me wrong..but i see them coming short of 50 wins..
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#18
Posted: 10/2/2012 11:56:51 PM
well the numbers are out courtesy of LHV Superbook

my plays are as follows:

TOR over 31.5
MIN over 38.5
MIL over 36.5
LAC over 48.5
LAL over 59.5
BRK over 43.5
NOH over 25.5
HOU under 30.5
CHA under 21.5
CHI under 47.5
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Posted: 10/3/2012 12:01:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KnicksFan18:

Grizz UNDER 50 maybe?...so many teams got better...they made no key additions and lost OJ MAYO... team still has talent dont get me wrong..but i see them coming short of 50 wins..

Book seems to agree with you ... 48.5 wins ... leaving this one alone... obviously like the 5 and the 8 man rotation including the depth down low ... need to take the next step come playoff time ... I suppose that is a return to the semis
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#20
Posted: 10/3/2012 2:34:14 AM
I think Warriors, Cavs, Wizards, and Bucks can all hit their total wins. 
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#21
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:39:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ddcdd:

I think Warriors, Cavs, Wizards, and Bucks can all hit their total wins. 

Might as well throw Pistons into that group... 21-21 last 42 games after horrendous start ... promising young core with some house cleaning and new additions. ... HC Frank extremely hard worker

I will add Raptors with a similar total,... but you already know my thoughts on that  got them OVER the total
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#22
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:40:05 PM
some line movement at LVH Superbook

Also BetOnline numbers are up

Some early action in this season totals market....
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#23
Posted: 10/4/2012 3:22:59 PM
I agree with all of those picks tommy. My 3 favorite (in order) are

1. NOH over 25.5
2. HOU under 30.5
3. CHI under 47.5


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Posted: 10/4/2012 8:29:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shaps17:

I agree with all of those picks tommy. My 3 favorite (in order) are

1. NOH over 25.5
2. HOU under 30.5
3. CHI under 47.5



I think the Rockets could be on their way to a Bobcats-esque season....1 legitimate NBA player (proven, that is) in Kevin Martin. The book is out on Lin. The rest of the roster, uggh, that is bottom 5 for both starting and unit and including reserves.
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#25
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:12:45 AM
I don't know man, Parsons can ball and Patterson is feisty, I think the Rockets got a better team than the Hornets
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