Wade over Westbrook Series Pts (15 units to win 12.50)
Miami Heat + and ML
I haven't played this yet, but I expect to jump on this when it hits 5. Oddsmakers have so much power in this series and if it is not noticeable now, it will be before this is over. The majority of the public would like nothing more than to see Lebron and the Heat lose again. And just like it is hard to separate your heart from your money when considering backing your favorite team, the reverse is true. For people who want Miami to lose, it is very hard to reverse your mind and break down that emotional thought. It doesn't seem like it now, but the -5/5.5 in Game 1 was at a premium. Oddsmakers got bailed out by OKC covering the number, but I'm interested to see how this line swings for Game 3 in Miami. Game 2 opened at 4.5, but is this lower expecting a Heat bounce back or is it more in line with where it should be? I'll have some additional bets for Game 2 once they are up at my book. Eyeing some props and the total.
Miami is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS this season following a loss in which they gave up 100+ points. In these games, they are outscoring opponents on average 99.6 to 85.7.
OKC is 9-7 SU and 5-11 ATS this season following a game in which they shot greater than 50% from the field. In these games they are shooting 45.9%, but even more interesting is that they are shooting 43.3% in these situations when the opponent is a playoff team.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
2012 Playoffs: 67-51-3 +271.48 units
Pending
Miami Heat win NBA +350 (8 units to win 28.00)
Wade over Westbrook Series Pts (15 units to win 12.50)
Miami Heat + and ML
I haven't played this yet, but I expect to jump on this when it hits 5. Oddsmakers have so much power in this series and if it is not noticeable now, it will be before this is over. The majority of the public would like nothing more than to see Lebron and the Heat lose again. And just like it is hard to separate your heart from your money when considering backing your favorite team, the reverse is true. For people who want Miami to lose, it is very hard to reverse your mind and break down that emotional thought. It doesn't seem like it now, but the -5/5.5 in Game 1 was at a premium. Oddsmakers got bailed out by OKC covering the number, but I'm interested to see how this line swings for Game 3 in Miami. Game 2 opened at 4.5, but is this lower expecting a Heat bounce back or is it more in line with where it should be? I'll have some additional bets for Game 2 once they are up at my book. Eyeing some props and the total.
Miami is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS this season following a loss in which they gave up 100+ points. In these games, they are outscoring opponents on average 99.6 to 85.7.
OKC is 9-7 SU and 5-11 ATS this season following a game in which they shot greater than 50% from the field. In these games they are shooting 45.9%, but even more interesting is that they are shooting 43.3% in these situations when the opponent is a playoff team.
badlands - You're right and my apologies for not detailing the stats I was providing. Good catch. The 100 points allowed only includes points in regulation (no OT included) and if the following game went to OT, I use the regulation score. I generally don't handicap OT scoring when evaluating stats like this.
Sorry to the forum for throwing something out there without an accurate description
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crocnzeeba, SportsFreak - thanks
badlands - You're right and my apologies for not detailing the stats I was providing. Good catch. The 100 points allowed only includes points in regulation (no OT included) and if the following game went to OT, I use the regulation score. I generally don't handicap OT scoring when evaluating stats like this.
Sorry to the forum for throwing something out there without an accurate description
this series can turn arouind quicly like the spurs series did. the problem is miami has been playing so slow the past six weeks. they got ran out of the building by a team that played like a carbon copy of their previous home games. i am waiting for miami to get home before i put a bet on them where the crowd will either help them run with okc or slow them down. dont see it happening when okc plays at home.
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this series can turn arouind quicly like the spurs series did. the problem is miami has been playing so slow the past six weeks. they got ran out of the building by a team that played like a carbon copy of their previous home games. i am waiting for miami to get home before i put a bet on them where the crowd will either help them run with okc or slow them down. dont see it happening when okc plays at home.
They need to take this game from the heat but if they dont than there playoff hopes can be in trouble. They wont win all 3 in Miami i can tell you that much
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They need to take this game from the heat but if they dont than there playoff hopes can be in trouble. They wont win all 3 in Miami i can tell you that much
Game 1 was a close one with Heat pretty much dominating the 1H. I'm pretty sure when OKC review the tapes and make adjustments on what went wrong in the 1H game 1, Thunder will dominate this time. 2H will probably go to Heat with a comeback to make it close but because of the "at home" factor, I see the Thunder pull away again and 5 points is considerably possible to cover. GL to you my friend
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Game 1 was a close one with Heat pretty much dominating the 1H. I'm pretty sure when OKC review the tapes and make adjustments on what went wrong in the 1H game 1, Thunder will dominate this time. 2H will probably go to Heat with a comeback to make it close but because of the "at home" factor, I see the Thunder pull away again and 5 points is considerably possible to cover. GL to you my friend
Most shops opened Game 2 at OKC -4.5 and with that came two schools of thought - 1) OKC just beat them by DD and now I get a lower line? Thank you and 2) Oddsmakers must think Miami will bounce back if they are throwing out a lower number. Clearly the public thought more of # 1 as the line has now been driven up to 5.5 at all books. The Game 1 win and cover by the Thunder does not necessarily mean oddsmakers were right in the line that put out there for Game 1. I do think they dropped the line knowing full well that much of the public wants Miami to fail, so dropping it to 4.5 would ultimately get them right back to the number they had out for Game 1. And whether that is the right number or not, it's consistent. The time to rock the boat will be game 3. Opening this at 5 or 5.5 would reverse the two schools of thought, but likely with everyone so-anti Miami the line would have been driven up. And for oddsmakers, I imagine they are uncomfortable dangling a ML associated with a 6/6.5 point underdog. I actually think they are uncomfortable with what is dangling out there now.
I don't see any props up at my book as of yet. Feel free to post what you got to induce some chatter.
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thanks everyone, solid chatter..
Miami Heat +5.5 (20 units to win 19.04)
Miami Heat +210 (5 units to win 10.50)
Most shops opened Game 2 at OKC -4.5 and with that came two schools of thought - 1) OKC just beat them by DD and now I get a lower line? Thank you and 2) Oddsmakers must think Miami will bounce back if they are throwing out a lower number. Clearly the public thought more of # 1 as the line has now been driven up to 5.5 at all books. The Game 1 win and cover by the Thunder does not necessarily mean oddsmakers were right in the line that put out there for Game 1. I do think they dropped the line knowing full well that much of the public wants Miami to fail, so dropping it to 4.5 would ultimately get them right back to the number they had out for Game 1. And whether that is the right number or not, it's consistent. The time to rock the boat will be game 3. Opening this at 5 or 5.5 would reverse the two schools of thought, but likely with everyone so-anti Miami the line would have been driven up. And for oddsmakers, I imagine they are uncomfortable dangling a ML associated with a 6/6.5 point underdog. I actually think they are uncomfortable with what is dangling out there now.
I don't see any props up at my book as of yet. Feel free to post what you got to induce some chatter.
Scary thought playing a Westbrook under at home, but he really only showed up in spurts in Game 1 and much of it was a reaction to the Battier tussle. You'll notice from the above that Westbrook's shooting % goes down and his FT scoring reliance goes up as he plays against stiffer competition. In the last two years against the Heat, Westbrook's FG Pct. is 10% down from his overall numbers this season. Additionally, the % of scoring he gets from the FT line is up 10%. There likely is a correalation here as Westbrook becomes more aggressive against the better defensive teams thus leading to him being at the FT line more. His shooting % against the Heat is downright brutal and in 5 games against the Heat over the last two seasons Westbrook has been to the line on average 7.6 times. Let's round that up to 8 and assume he misses 1, so right there he is getting 7 points from the line. If he were to get to 25 points tonight, it would require 18 points from 2 pt and 3 pt FGs. Let's also assume he gets 16 points from 3pt FGs and 3 points from behind the arc. That would be 9 FGs made, which based on his 33% shooting would require 27 shot attempts. Westbrook has only taken 27+ shots three times this season. Against top defenses, he only averages 18.7 shot attempts and exceeded 20 only five times in 18 games. Against the Heat the last two seasons, he averages 20 shots per game and not once did he exceed 27.
There is certainly a chance Westbrook goes off tonight, but it will require something that just hasn't happened in his previous meetings vs. the Heat. He averages 21.4 points against them over the last two seasons, so even before tip you have some cushion under the 24 point line that was set. If we rely on the numbers that the Heat defense shows up after they lose and yield 100, Westbrook shouldn't have much opportunity to post big numbers. This likely is in danger if Westbrook shoots 50% from the field and/or gets to the line 10+ times. Both are possible for sure, but neither has happened in previous meetings against the Heat
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agassi, P4P - thanks guys
Westbrook UNDER 24 Pts (10 units to win 10)
Overall
45.7% FG Pct.
31.6% 3Pt Pct.
82.3% FT Pct.
66.2% FG Scoring
11.9% 3Pt Scoring
21.8% FT Scoring
Vs. NBA’s Top 10 Defenses
40.1% FG Pct.
32.0% 3Pt Pct.
82.8% FT Pct.
60.7% FG Scoring
12.2% 3Pt Scoring
27.0% FT Scoring
Vs. Miami Last 2 Seasons
33.6% FG Pct.
21.4% 3Pt Pct.
89.5% FT Pct.
59.8% FG Scoring
8.4% 3Pt Scoring
31.8% FT Shooting
Scary thought playing a Westbrook under at home, but he really only showed up in spurts in Game 1 and much of it was a reaction to the Battier tussle. You'll notice from the above that Westbrook's shooting % goes down and his FT scoring reliance goes up as he plays against stiffer competition. In the last two years against the Heat, Westbrook's FG Pct. is 10% down from his overall numbers this season. Additionally, the % of scoring he gets from the FT line is up 10%. There likely is a correalation here as Westbrook becomes more aggressive against the better defensive teams thus leading to him being at the FT line more. His shooting % against the Heat is downright brutal and in 5 games against the Heat over the last two seasons Westbrook has been to the line on average 7.6 times. Let's round that up to 8 and assume he misses 1, so right there he is getting 7 points from the line. If he were to get to 25 points tonight, it would require 18 points from 2 pt and 3 pt FGs. Let's also assume he gets 16 points from 3pt FGs and 3 points from behind the arc. That would be 9 FGs made, which based on his 33% shooting would require 27 shot attempts. Westbrook has only taken 27+ shots three times this season. Against top defenses, he only averages 18.7 shot attempts and exceeded 20 only five times in 18 games. Against the Heat the last two seasons, he averages 20 shots per game and not once did he exceed 27.
There is certainly a chance Westbrook goes off tonight, but it will require something that just hasn't happened in his previous meetings vs. the Heat. He averages 21.4 points against them over the last two seasons, so even before tip you have some cushion under the 24 point line that was set. If we rely on the numbers that the Heat defense shows up after they lose and yield 100, Westbrook shouldn't have much opportunity to post big numbers. This likely is in danger if Westbrook shoots 50% from the field and/or gets to the line 10+ times. Both are possible for sure, but neither has happened in previous meetings against the Heat
Wade over Westbrook Series Pts (15 units to win 12.50)
Miami Heat + and ML
I haven't played this yet, but I expect to jump on this when it hits 5. Oddsmakers have so much power in this series and if it is not noticeable now, it will be before this is over. The majority of the public would like nothing more than to see Lebron and the Heat lose again. And just like it is hard to separate your heart from your money when considering backing your favorite team, the reverse is true. For people who want Miami to lose, it is very hard to reverse your mind and break down that emotional thought. It doesn't seem like it now, but the -5/5.5 in Game 1 was at a premium. Oddsmakers got bailed out by OKC covering the number, but I'm interested to see how this line swings for Game 3 in Miami. Game 2 opened at 4.5, but is this lower expecting a Heat bounce back or is it more in line with where it should be? I'll have some additional bets for Game 2 once they are up at my book. Eyeing some props and the total.
Miami is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS this season following a loss in which they gave up 100+ points. In these games, they are outscoring opponents on average 99.6 to 85.7.
OKC is 9-7 SU and 5-11 ATS this season following a game in which they shot greater than 50% from the field. In these games they are shooting 45.9%, but even more interesting is that they are shooting 43.3% in these situations when the opponent is a playoff team.
Well said Spaz. I think the vast majority of bettors are blindly betting with ill-founded animosity and not much else. It's the path to ruin.
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Quote Originally Posted by SettleDownSpaz:
2012 Playoffs: 67-51-3 +271.48 units
Pending
Miami Heat win NBA +350 (8 units to win 28.00)
Wade over Westbrook Series Pts (15 units to win 12.50)
Miami Heat + and ML
I haven't played this yet, but I expect to jump on this when it hits 5. Oddsmakers have so much power in this series and if it is not noticeable now, it will be before this is over. The majority of the public would like nothing more than to see Lebron and the Heat lose again. And just like it is hard to separate your heart from your money when considering backing your favorite team, the reverse is true. For people who want Miami to lose, it is very hard to reverse your mind and break down that emotional thought. It doesn't seem like it now, but the -5/5.5 in Game 1 was at a premium. Oddsmakers got bailed out by OKC covering the number, but I'm interested to see how this line swings for Game 3 in Miami. Game 2 opened at 4.5, but is this lower expecting a Heat bounce back or is it more in line with where it should be? I'll have some additional bets for Game 2 once they are up at my book. Eyeing some props and the total.
Miami is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS this season following a loss in which they gave up 100+ points. In these games, they are outscoring opponents on average 99.6 to 85.7.
OKC is 9-7 SU and 5-11 ATS this season following a game in which they shot greater than 50% from the field. In these games they are shooting 45.9%, but even more interesting is that they are shooting 43.3% in these situations when the opponent is a playoff team.
Well said Spaz. I think the vast majority of bettors are blindly betting with ill-founded animosity and not much else. It's the path to ruin.
thanks everyone.. Got cute with the Westbrook prop. I had it pegged that he would need to take a ton of shots and he did, but to be honest that helped contribute to the Miami Heat victory.
I'll take the +19.54 units profit. Already sizing up Game 3
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thanks everyone.. Got cute with the Westbrook prop. I had it pegged that he would need to take a ton of shots and he did, but to be honest that helped contribute to the Miami Heat victory.
I'll take the +19.54 units profit. Already sizing up Game 3
Hands down one of the most solid cappers on the board (in all sports), while doing it in quite fashion with not a ton of followers/views/responses-just the way I like it. Thx Spaz.
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Hands down one of the most solid cappers on the board (in all sports), while doing it in quite fashion with not a ton of followers/views/responses-just the way I like it. Thx Spaz.
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