Been reading since i woke up this morning & it seems many have Thunder in 6. Even Ira Winderman a beat writer for Miami has Heat in 6. This makes me a little concerned as i also have Thunder 4-2. But it's comforting to know that our friendly neighborhood corrupt ref, Mr Donaghy also agrees. Anyway.........
Game 1 leaning:
OKC -5
Pacers and Boston proved to be a head ache for Miami. Pacers took them to 6 games & Boston covered 4 out of the 7 games. They needed Bosh to hit 2 3's in the 4th to win against Boston in game 7 (what Bosh was doing on the arc in those 2 possession is beyond me). I'm not quite convinced they were even the better team in that series needing the refs & Over Time to help over come an incredible game by Rondo in game 2 (that game was as blatant as the Manny Pacquiao loss). Still a lean for now. Gotta crunch some numbers.
UNDER 194
First game of the 2012 NBA finals. Alot of nerves. Both teams gotta feel each other out. Looks like a decent spot for the UNDER. Still gotta crunch some numbers.
Been reading since i woke up this morning & it seems many have Thunder in 6. Even Ira Winderman a beat writer for Miami has Heat in 6. This makes me a little concerned as i also have Thunder 4-2. But it's comforting to know that our friendly neighborhood corrupt ref, Mr Donaghy also agrees. Anyway.........
Game 1 leaning:
OKC -5
Pacers and Boston proved to be a head ache for Miami. Pacers took them to 6 games & Boston covered 4 out of the 7 games. They needed Bosh to hit 2 3's in the 4th to win against Boston in game 7 (what Bosh was doing on the arc in those 2 possession is beyond me). I'm not quite convinced they were even the better team in that series needing the refs & Over Time to help over come an incredible game by Rondo in game 2 (that game was as blatant as the Manny Pacquiao loss). Still a lean for now. Gotta crunch some numbers.
UNDER 194
First game of the 2012 NBA finals. Alot of nerves. Both teams gotta feel each other out. Looks like a decent spot for the UNDER. Still gotta crunch some numbers.
The total has only gone Over once. The other games could hardly reach 190+. The average total in the last 5 games is 190..
Thunder average around 102.9 for the season and the playoffs - Heat
average around 98 for the season and 95 for the playoffs. But in this
match up against one another Thunder average 98 and Heat 91. So that's about an average of around 5-6 pts drop for each team w/ Miami having the more significant drop.
I averaged things out to around 197. So if you take away the 10 pts (5
for each team in this match up) that total goes down to 187 (close to
the 190 average total in the last 5 games).And seems to me to be about
right for the first game of the NBA finals.
So i then crunched some more numbers (Thunder poits allowed in PO's
& match up/Heat points allowed in PO's & match up etc) and my
calculations suggest a prediction of something like:
OKC
97 – MIA 89 = 186
Here are the 6 totals in the 1st game of the last6 NBA finals:
The total has only gone Over once. The other games could hardly reach 190+. The average total in the last 5 games is 190..
Thunder average around 102.9 for the season and the playoffs - Heat
average around 98 for the season and 95 for the playoffs. But in this
match up against one another Thunder average 98 and Heat 91. So that's about an average of around 5-6 pts drop for each team w/ Miami having the more significant drop.
I averaged things out to around 197. So if you take away the 10 pts (5
for each team in this match up) that total goes down to 187 (close to
the 190 average total in the last 5 games).And seems to me to be about
right for the first game of the NBA finals.
So i then crunched some more numbers (Thunder poits allowed in PO's
& match up/Heat points allowed in PO's & match up etc) and my
calculations suggest a prediction of something like:
OKC
97 – MIA 89 = 186
Here are the 6 totals in the 1st game of the last6 NBA finals:
this is the most excited i have been for an nba finals since jordan was still around, my god durant vs james, and then players like wade,bosh,westbrook,harden all there too this is gonna be a great series
and imo this is the first of back to back to back meetings between each other in the nba finals, unless other teams maek serious trades, both these teams in their conferences are dynasty, VEGAS HAS OKC HUGE FAVORITES TO WIN WEST NEXT YEAR AND MIAMI IS HUGE FAVORITES TO WIN EAST, unless some major off season moves happen to get teams like memphis,clips,chicago better etc, nobody is near as good as a healthy miami or okc team, imo okc is the more talented team after you take away the top 2 players from each team. okc does more things
this is the most excited i have been for an nba finals since jordan was still around, my god durant vs james, and then players like wade,bosh,westbrook,harden all there too this is gonna be a great series
and imo this is the first of back to back to back meetings between each other in the nba finals, unless other teams maek serious trades, both these teams in their conferences are dynasty, VEGAS HAS OKC HUGE FAVORITES TO WIN WEST NEXT YEAR AND MIAMI IS HUGE FAVORITES TO WIN EAST, unless some major off season moves happen to get teams like memphis,clips,chicago better etc, nobody is near as good as a healthy miami or okc team, imo okc is the more talented team after you take away the top 2 players from each team. okc does more things
3ballbomber great stuff i agree with you on a lot.....i do think okc in 5 or 6....and game 1 okc -4.5....
ill pass on the total cause its under or nothing for me....but the 192.5 seemed low and obviously was bet up....
The OVER hit 5 out of 7 games in that Boston/Miami series. 4 out 6 in Thunder/Spurs series. and 10 out of 15 playoff games for Thunder has gone OVER (10 out of 18 for Miami). So the OVER has been hitting a large % for both teams especially in the Conference finals. And they are playing on Thunders court for game 1 where people will think it's going to be high scoring. Looks like the public considers all of this and are pounding the OVER. That is a massive movement from 192.5.
I think the line makers have already adjusted the total for this particular game. The last 5 totals in this match up has been set by an average of 199.6 or 201 (in the 4 games since Lebron & Bosh trade). So that's about a 9 pt drop - remember i calculated minus 5 pts for each team in this match up from their season/playoff average for this game. So that actually correlates to the total set in this game that has dropped from their regular average set total.
Spurs were no longer the defensive minded team of the past but defense is Miami's main philosophy as a squad - it is their identity. To beat the Thunder Miami knows they can't make a game of who can score more as Thunder have loads of offensive weapons who can get buckets from anywhere on the court. While Miami still has their 3rd option Bosh coming off an injury. I don't really see Miami's role players being efficient on the road, especially @ the Thunder-Dome!
3ballbomber great stuff i agree with you on a lot.....i do think okc in 5 or 6....and game 1 okc -4.5....
ill pass on the total cause its under or nothing for me....but the 192.5 seemed low and obviously was bet up....
The OVER hit 5 out of 7 games in that Boston/Miami series. 4 out 6 in Thunder/Spurs series. and 10 out of 15 playoff games for Thunder has gone OVER (10 out of 18 for Miami). So the OVER has been hitting a large % for both teams especially in the Conference finals. And they are playing on Thunders court for game 1 where people will think it's going to be high scoring. Looks like the public considers all of this and are pounding the OVER. That is a massive movement from 192.5.
I think the line makers have already adjusted the total for this particular game. The last 5 totals in this match up has been set by an average of 199.6 or 201 (in the 4 games since Lebron & Bosh trade). So that's about a 9 pt drop - remember i calculated minus 5 pts for each team in this match up from their season/playoff average for this game. So that actually correlates to the total set in this game that has dropped from their regular average set total.
Spurs were no longer the defensive minded team of the past but defense is Miami's main philosophy as a squad - it is their identity. To beat the Thunder Miami knows they can't make a game of who can score more as Thunder have loads of offensive weapons who can get buckets from anywhere on the court. While Miami still has their 3rd option Bosh coming off an injury. I don't really see Miami's role players being efficient on the road, especially @ the Thunder-Dome!
this is the most excited i have been for an nba finals since jordan was still around, my god durant vs james, and then players like wade,bosh,westbrook,harden all there too this is gonna be a great series
and imo this is the first of back to back to back meetings between each other in the nba finals, unless other teams maek serious trades, both these teams in their conferences are dynasty, VEGAS HAS OKC HUGE FAVORITES TO WIN WEST NEXT YEAR AND MIAMI IS HUGE FAVORITES TO WIN EAST, unless some major off season moves happen to get teams like memphis,clips,chicago better etc, nobody is near as good as a healthy miami or okc team, imo okc is the more talented team after you take away the top 2 players from each team. okc does more things
I'm more excited to in the chance of making money & Miami failing again more than anything else. This is more a mockery of basketball w/ superstars forming superteams to win against opponents they weren't able to beat when they lead their own teams and still needed refs to help give them the edge in each series. I'm a 35 yr old NBA junkie from the old school and this disgusts me. But anyways, i'm sure the newer generations will be licking their chops watching this.
this is the most excited i have been for an nba finals since jordan was still around, my god durant vs james, and then players like wade,bosh,westbrook,harden all there too this is gonna be a great series
and imo this is the first of back to back to back meetings between each other in the nba finals, unless other teams maek serious trades, both these teams in their conferences are dynasty, VEGAS HAS OKC HUGE FAVORITES TO WIN WEST NEXT YEAR AND MIAMI IS HUGE FAVORITES TO WIN EAST, unless some major off season moves happen to get teams like memphis,clips,chicago better etc, nobody is near as good as a healthy miami or okc team, imo okc is the more talented team after you take away the top 2 players from each team. okc does more things
I'm more excited to in the chance of making money & Miami failing again more than anything else. This is more a mockery of basketball w/ superstars forming superteams to win against opponents they weren't able to beat when they lead their own teams and still needed refs to help give them the edge in each series. I'm a 35 yr old NBA junkie from the old school and this disgusts me. But anyways, i'm sure the newer generations will be licking their chops watching this.
Love the write-up, Mr. 3Ball. This unbelievable Durant/Westbrook/Harden combo has 67.1% accuracy but I'm really looking to see the defense that the Heat comes out!
Love the write-up, Mr. 3Ball. This unbelievable Durant/Westbrook/Harden combo has 67.1% accuracy but I'm really looking to see the defense that the Heat comes out!
I'm not going to Overstate the Thunder come back. But i must say for a young squad playing in their first finals game together vs a team w/ experienced players it took alot of guts to come back like that considering the nerves they may have felt. It seems to be an on going pattern w/ this team the way they are relentless and just keep fighting till the end.
I said i won't overstate it because Miami won an emotional & hard fought game 7 just 2 days prior while The Thunder had a good 5 days break. So game 1 wasn't looking too good for Miami - which is why i risked alot of money to get back less betting OKC Straight Up @ $1.43 odds.
But w/ that said Thunder have had alot of hard fought battles leading to the NBA finals and it bodes well for them as it gives them the experience necessary in this series when games are close - or like game 1 where they are playing from behind and fought back from double digit deficit. Like i said Spurs cruised past their weaker opponents but they met a Thunder crew who had close, hard fought battles vs much tougher opponents and players. Thunder takes all of that experience w/ them against Miami in this series. This is a toughened team.
Miami average around 6 3's a game and they made that amount in the first
half but Thunder only down by 7 at the end of 1st Half............
..........Miami will now make their adjustments for game 2. One of them most likely starting Bosh. But if Bosh is going to be sticking to that 3 point line like he oddly has been doing he is going to be useless for Miami. They need him down low for pts in the paint and boards. They will also make defensive adjustments as expected. We will probably see more of Sefolosha on Lebron as that seemed to have worked for Thunder in the 2nd Half.
Points in the paint was really lacking for Miami but Thunder had many due to no real shot blockers inside for Miami which is a long term on going issue yet to be addressed by Miami - doesn't help that Thunder also edge out Miami in the PG spot w/ Westbrook far superior to Chalmers and had his own way breaking down the defense and getting inside for layups.
Miami have alot of work to do. Their gaping holes in the 1 and 5 spot and lack of depth are showing up yet again. and it looks like Lebron and Wade were exhausted in game 1. Can they get more help?
I'm not going to Overstate the Thunder come back. But i must say for a young squad playing in their first finals game together vs a team w/ experienced players it took alot of guts to come back like that considering the nerves they may have felt. It seems to be an on going pattern w/ this team the way they are relentless and just keep fighting till the end.
I said i won't overstate it because Miami won an emotional & hard fought game 7 just 2 days prior while The Thunder had a good 5 days break. So game 1 wasn't looking too good for Miami - which is why i risked alot of money to get back less betting OKC Straight Up @ $1.43 odds.
But w/ that said Thunder have had alot of hard fought battles leading to the NBA finals and it bodes well for them as it gives them the experience necessary in this series when games are close - or like game 1 where they are playing from behind and fought back from double digit deficit. Like i said Spurs cruised past their weaker opponents but they met a Thunder crew who had close, hard fought battles vs much tougher opponents and players. Thunder takes all of that experience w/ them against Miami in this series. This is a toughened team.
Miami average around 6 3's a game and they made that amount in the first
half but Thunder only down by 7 at the end of 1st Half............
..........Miami will now make their adjustments for game 2. One of them most likely starting Bosh. But if Bosh is going to be sticking to that 3 point line like he oddly has been doing he is going to be useless for Miami. They need him down low for pts in the paint and boards. They will also make defensive adjustments as expected. We will probably see more of Sefolosha on Lebron as that seemed to have worked for Thunder in the 2nd Half.
Points in the paint was really lacking for Miami but Thunder had many due to no real shot blockers inside for Miami which is a long term on going issue yet to be addressed by Miami - doesn't help that Thunder also edge out Miami in the PG spot w/ Westbrook far superior to Chalmers and had his own way breaking down the defense and getting inside for layups.
Miami have alot of work to do. Their gaping holes in the 1 and 5 spot and lack of depth are showing up yet again. and it looks like Lebron and Wade were exhausted in game 1. Can they get more help?
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