SAFEST BET FOR TONIGHT (Near Lock Status)

Forum: NBA Betting Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: SAFEST BET FOR TONIGHT (Near Lock Status)
bettinbig5 PM bettinbig5
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Posted: 6/4/2012 7:23:19 PM
I would recommend a 6 pt Teaser with the Under and OKC.  If they lose tonight I doubt it will be double digits. OKC knows what it takes now to beat the Spurs and will keep this a close game regardless. In addition to that, its going to be real hard to hit that high total because just one bad quarter from either team will make it difficult to compensate for.  You are getting even money with this small parlay.  My book has OKC as 5 pt dogs and the total at 201.5 pts.  6pt. teaser makes it +11 OKC and under 207.5 which is beautiful...
buffalo11 PM buffalo11
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Posted: 6/4/2012 7:24:32 PM
teasers are for suckers
bettinbig5 PM bettinbig5
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Posted: 6/4/2012 7:30:02 PM
Even if they provide you with a much higher percentage of winning, and near even money?!  If you lose because you take OKC with +5 and under 201.5, then you will remember what I said...
bettinbig5 PM bettinbig5
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Posted: 6/4/2012 7:35:09 PM
As long as I am not getting terrible odds on my payout, if I can increase my chances of winning a wager like this greatly by basically doubling the threshold that they can lose by and making the under a line that they only hit once in the series ( which was just ridiculous scoring by both sides for a playoff game)...I'll take that any day!
bettinbig5 PM bettinbig5
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Posted: 6/4/2012 7:39:03 PM
Sorry, they hit that last game as well, but I doubt we'll see a similar 4th quarter like that.  It took 34 pts and 32 pts to hit that.  I do have to say that performance by Durant was one of the greatest I have ever seen!
2169 PM 2169
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Posted: 6/4/2012 7:42:56 PM
sounds like you are gonna be betting big
bpickin PM bpickin
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Posted: 6/4/2012 7:44:56 PM
What constitutes "lock status?"
need2cover PM need2cover
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Posted: 6/4/2012 7:45:21 PM
Teasers are only for the NFL. They arent good for NBA. Not enough cushion. But, BOL to you.
need2cover PM need2cover
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Posted: 6/4/2012 7:48:08 PM
Teasers are only for the NFL. They arent good for NBA. Not enough cushion. But, BOL to you.

Why tease? It's even money pretty much. Just pick a play or don't play at all. IMO 
bettinbig5 PM bettinbig5
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Posted: 6/4/2012 7:51:09 PM
Thanks.  Dont mind if some of you disagree with me.  Those who listened to me on OKC -3.5 and over 202 the other night and BOS ML yesterday won some nice coin I'm sure :-)  Teasers and parlays are not for everybody, but as I said this is a safe percentage play with near even money as a payout.  GL everyone!
bettinbig5 PM bettinbig5
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Posted: 6/4/2012 7:56:17 PM
To answer you question, I did great during the NBA season with parlaying teasers on bets that I wouldn't have won if I had not done that.  There are always those 1 or 2 games that get you.  This does provide a nice cushion actually.  Think about it this way, if you could get OKC as double digit dogs normally, wouldn't you do it?  Also, the same goes for an under of 207.5...  You say pick one side or the other, but if you lose your wager by a few points, you're going to start liking these teasers more.
bettinbig5 PM bettinbig5
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:14:30 PM
I do see some of the better cappers on here taking OKC and the under now, which makes my bet seem even that much more of a safe and great play.  Just saying... without running numbers you've got to assume that you have at least a 20% better shot minimum at winning this wager by teasing it the 6 points.  It's well worth it, rather than just picking your side on lines that usually run so close to the true score in a series that could go either way.  Not that many people thought the Thunder would tie it up, but it happened.  I'm telling you what the safe % play is.  Plus its not like you are betting 500 and getting payed out 300.  It would be more like 500 to 500.
LockBurger PM LockBurger
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:15:43 PM
NBA/NCAAB teasers will kill you.
Provic PM Provic
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:15:58 PM
Nothing wrong with teasing unless you're buying a shitload of them. 

followmylead PM followmylead
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:19:50 PM
Revenge is a must. SA will win by 15-20 points.
followmylead PM followmylead
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:20:34 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by buffalo11:

teasers are for suckers

takes one to know one.

bettinbig5 PM bettinbig5
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:25:35 PM
Maybe because you're teasing the wrong side or games.  When a game is going to be close, it is not a bad thing to tease a dog to give you that extra cushion.  Same goes for the points side to make that total extra high or extra low.  I think there is a huge misconception on the way teasers are looked at as losing bets the same way as parlays.  You can tell me that NBA/NCAAB teasers will kill me, but that is simply not the case for me.  Maybe that is just not your strong suit, but I never had a problem making money on them.
need2cover PM need2cover
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:27:08 PM
Don't be so confident. It is called gambling for a reason. 
capskip PM capskip
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:28:07 PM
bettinbig5 PM bettinbig5
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:36:43 PM
I am not guaranteeing a win with this, but sharing what I am doing with all of you, in hopes that we can all make some money.  SA can be pissed and want revenge, but that won't make OKC any worse of a team.  They are young, extremely talented, and have all the pieces to keep this close.  Just last game, you saw the individual contributions that their pieces can give aside from Durant, Westbrook, and Harden.  FYI, my preseason predictions for the finals were the Bulls and Thunder.  I am from Chicago and a Bulls fan, but you saw the route they were headed before Rose got injured.  I told my friends 2 years ago that the Thunder would win a championship within a few years if they kept Durant, Westbrook, Harden, and Ibaka together and got a legit center...they all laughed at me.  I always felt I had an ability to see pieces coming together.  This has helped me to basically win every fantasy sports league I'm ever in and then I decided to take to sportsbetting.  My discipline still isn't there, but I do know my stuff.  Would love to hear some feedback as I will be providing my picks for baseball, basketball, and football most of the year.  This is fun for me and I would love if we could all make some money with this, but don't just tell me that teasers are suckers bets until you can provide me with your reasoning as to why this is a bad bet.  I've told you why I believe this is a safe and good bet, and would love to hear some respectful and intelligent analysis rather than the sentence long rebuttals I've been getting.
bettinbig5 PM bettinbig5
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:39:21 PM
Buffalo and Need2Cover, maybe you guys are teasing the favs down or something.  That is not good in this case...
ILPRATO PM ILPRATO
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:41:50 PM
good luck not so easy hitting both just my opinion.

RodWoman PM RodWoman
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:42:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by buffalo11:

teasers are for suckers
    The kid will figure it out soon.
Iguessright PM Iguessright
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:43:44 PM
bettinbig5

Dont let them get in your head. Some people are on here to lead you in the wrong direction and get people to place bets with bad odds etc... TEASERS ARE FINE!  
Kowcher PM Kowcher
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Posted: 6/4/2012 8:48:39 PM
Love the passion bro. Teasers can spell trouble though. Bol of luck tonight.
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