Hello folks, found myself with a little time on my hands and thought I would take some time to share my thoughts on this game for you all.
Wagering 2 dimes on the UNDER 204 POINTS in this game.
For starters, we all know that basketball teams need to stay in rythem. Having significant layoffs usually means that the shooters will not be in game-shooting shape. While this series may see some high scoring games with both teams scoring 100+ points, I just don't see it in game 1 mainly because of the layoff.
The Spurs are playing this game with 6 days of rest. The Thunder are playing tonight on 5 days of rest. That is a lot of time to go in between games. Just like a time-out during a game can do a lot to stop a "run" so too does too much time in between games lead to shooters losing a bit of their rythem.
Going back and looking at my trends database, game one NBA playoff home teams (Spurs) have gone 8-0 "under" in the last 8 years when both teams enter a playoff game with 4 or more days of rest with a posted total of 210 points or less. Granted that past trends are no indication of present performance, I do note that the Spurs played 4 times this season with 3 or more days of rest. Those games averaged a combined 194.5 points ... that's 9.5 points less than the posted total for this game. The Thunder also played 4 times with 3 or more days rest and saw those games average 192.8 total points scored. That's a full 11 points less than the posted total with the under going 3-1.
The Spurs have also had a tendencey to take their foot off the throttle after high scoring games with the under going 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after scoring 100 or more points.
Both teams limited opponents to 96 ppg over the course of the season while scoring an average of 103 ppg. They are right next to each other in the league rankings in this regard. Those averages alone render a total of 199 for the game but we know that other factors come in to play.
Defense has tighted up for the Spurs this playoff. If we throw out the last game against the Clippers where the Spurs allowed 99 points, they hadn't allowed more than 92 points in their prior 7 playoff games.
While I agree that this series has the potential to see points scored, I think the significant layoff in between games for both of these teams might influence the shooting accuracy in game 1 and for that reason, I think the oddsmakers simply posted a number too high for game one. This total should be closer to 198.
The Thunder have seen the total go 5-0 "under" in their last 7 games as underdogs. As for the Spurs, the under is 5-0 in their last 7 conference final games, 4-0 their last 4 against the Northwest Division, 4-1 as playoff favorites of 5-10.5 points, 6-2 in their last 8 playoff games as chalk and the under is also 6-2-1 their last 9 vs. Western Conference foes.
Feel free to chime in ... My money in game one is on the under.
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