Posted:
#1
Projected Starting Lineups
Spurs
Tony Parker
Tim Duncan
Kawaii Leonard
Daniel Green
Boris Diaw
Thunder
Russel Westbrook
Serge Ibaka
Kevin Durant
Thabo Sefolosha
Kendrick Perkins
Series price for Spurs to win: -200
Series price for OKC to win: +180
The 7 game series was formatted to bring out the best level of competition from both teams. We have seen the Spurs roll through the Jazz & Clippers. They go from playing poor competition, who would have likely been swept by OKC as well, to playing a top three team in the league.
Coaching is the key to this series and clearly, Popovich of the Spurs gets the coaching advantage. I'm not taking anything away from Scott Brooks, but Coach Pop is one of the best in the league.
I see a lot of people talking about the strength of the Spur's bench. There is no denying their depth, but bench match ups only gain you an advantage for 6-12 minutes a game. The Thunder don't bring scrubs off the bench, they have active bigs in Collison and Mohammed. The veteran Derek Fisher comes in to run the PG. Harden against Ginobli will be a key matchup in every game. Sefolosha may be better utilized covering Ginobli rather than having him out there against Green or Neal.
I really do not think the Thunder will be at a disadvantage inside. I believe that Ibaka/Perkins will continue to protect the rim. Duncan will look to continue his dominance but Ibaka knows his role as a defender. He will have to be careful when helping off of Duncan but if he can make the correct adjustments I think he will be able to limit Duncan's offense while still disrupting drives from Ginobli/Parker.
The Spurs do have the ability to stretch the floor with Matt Bonner playing the 4. This draws one of OKC's big men outside leaving more room for slashers like Ginobli and Parker to get to the hoop. If the Thunder decide to leave Bonner on the outside, this guy is lights out from 3. Both teams can put multiple 3 point shooters on the floor and I think this is one of the reasons why the total is set at 200+ for this game.
Durant should have his way this series. Nobody in the NBA matches up well against him. He will be covered by rookie Kawhi Leonard (6'7) and Stephen Jackson (6'8). It will be interesting to see what the Spurs do to counter Durant's skill-set in this series. By throwing a double team at him it may force guys like Westbrook, Harden, and Sefolosha to hit some outside shots.
Westbrook and Parker are two of the best scoring point guards in the league. A big issue in this match up will be foul trouble. If one of these two gets in early foul trouble, their respective team will have to make very drastic adjustments. Parker is the better passer of the two, and with the way the Spurs move the ball it will be very important for Westbrook to stay in front of Parker. Westbrook will need to limit his turnovers and take smart shots on offense if they want a shot in Game 1.
It is clear that both teams in this series can score. We have a very high total which is hovering around 204. Missed shots and turnovers lead to transition offense for both teams. Which ever team can limit their turnovers, like OKC did against the Lakers, will have a big advantage in this series. The winning team will need to limit 2nd chance and fast break points. Both teams thrive off these situations and I believe that the Thunder have the advantage here.
I like Thunder to win the series. Obviously, the books think otherwise but I will be waiting until after game 1 to make any series plays. If the Thunder lose Game 1, I hope to see odds of winning the series to jump over +325.
The one thing I like about the Spurs is the way they have won most of their games this year. They beat the shit out of teams every minute of every game. This usually has them winning by double digits for a large portion of the game. The Spurs offensive abilities makes them a tough team to make a run against as they score the ball so well. OKC is similar in that sense, but they are used to playing through adversity more so than the Spurs. The Thunder have proven that they can win games in the 4th quarter and this has bailed them out of various games. Hell, the Lakers should have been up 3-1 if it wasn't for the Thunder's 4th quarter heroics.
0
Hot Forum Topics
