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#1
The Nuggets have averaged 47.6% from the field per game
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the LA Lakers last 8 games when playing Denver
LA Lakers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Game 3 - Lakers vs Nuggets
Denvers average PCT from the field is 47% and their highest PCT from Field Goals made this year versus the Lakers is only .465 or about almost 47% from the field on Jan 1st at Denver.
That game had World Peace, but he was pretty much not there defensively with 1 REB, 0 Steals and 0 Blocks, 2 turnovers and 1 personal foul with 10 pts total for the game.
We also can see that none of the Lakers vs Denver games ever exceed 204 total points this whole season!
Here are some stats for the last two playoff games.
4/29
Vegas Total @ 202.5 (under) (192 final) LAL-4.5(w)
-Los Angeles
11-15 Free Throw Attempts
22 Personal Fouls
-Denver
20-27 FTA
18 PF
5/1
Vegas Total @ 199.5 (over) (204 final) Den+5(w)
-Lakers
16-21 FTA
20 PF
-Denver
16-22 Free Throw Attempts
23 Personal Fouls
Using some of this data, we can see that the refs did not favor Lakers as initially anticipated during its first game blowout against Denver, nor the second. I can see alittle more favortism towards Denver, with them playing in Denver tonight. Unless Bill Kennedy is reffing this game, I do not see Denver making 37 free throw attempts which saved them, and won against LAL on Jan 1.
Dan Crawford
Jason Phillips
Michael Smith
Brian Forte are the refs assigned to this game.
Dan Crawford (not Joe) is pretty consistent and gives a slight edge to the home team, (Unless youre the Mavs), and will let alot of stuff slide. I expect to see a more physical game here in the first half and a slow paced second half.
Another angle to look at is that Kobe/Bynum/Gasol is playing almost 40minutes a piece, Sessions 35m in these playoff games, which could have them alittle bit winded come the second half, especially with the elevation.
I see the total posted at 204 today, which actually drew in alot of public bettors. The last games total was 204 points; which was the highest EVER game total this season between these two teams. I do not expect another over 204 game in Denver.
I also like the way the line movement is on this game (77% public on over, and went down .5 in many books as more smart money is moving in), but one fact to point out is never to get excited about 'early' line movement, as it could be a double move, but I dont expect it.
I expect this game to be close throughout the game and I do not expect to see too many one sided personal fouls with Dan in the game, since the Mavericks aren't playing. I expect around 44 or so FT attempts. I've capped the game at 95 98 Lakers, but I feel the Lakers may let this one go, or the next game away game go due to Meta World Peace issue (need to lose 1 game for him coming back at the right time.) But I personally like the Under 204. BOL.
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