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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Why is MIA only giving -5?
followmylead send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.ag |
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#1
Posted: 5/2/2012 11:58:59 PM

J.R. Smith scares me. I'm thinking NY will go small and chuck up a whole lotta 3's. Will Miami cover? This line doesn't seem right.

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#2
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:00:57 AM
I expect their to be a lot of FTs for NY tomorrow night.  Take the Carmelo points prop if it is under 28. If he is shooting halfway decent he will take it.

I still don't see how Miami loses though unless a few of New York's role players are on fire.
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#3
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:01:55 AM
It is actually. There's a 6 to 6.5 pt swing from home court to home court. The real line should actually be Mia -3 on the road.
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#4
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:04:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by linewatcher:

It is actually. There's a 6 to 6.5 pt swing from home court to home court. The real line should actually be Mia -3 on the road.

guess mia is giving too much, .5 is sometimes the difference between losing and winning, 2 points is huge.
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#5
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:06:41 AM

Weren't the Knicks playing good at the end of the season without Amare and Lin anyway?

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#6
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:07:37 AM

Don't Over Think this one.

I wouldn't worry about J.R Smith as Much as I would Melo...

Look for some Melo Props tommorrow, he should get the Bulk of the Shots...

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#7
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:12:31 AM
Shumpert and Amare are out= the difference!  Guys this is not rocket science .
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#8
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:14:45 AM
NYK is a much better team without Amare....

NYK is a much better team at home....

THATS WHY!
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#9
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:15:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by followmylead:

J.R. Smith scares me. I'm thinking NY will go small and chuck up a whole lotta 3's. Will Miami cover? This line doesn't seem right.

what do you know about basketball? they were - 9 -10 ish at home, what you expect them to be on the road? this number is right where it should be for game 3

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#10
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:16:54 AM
i loaded up on miami -1.5 games to win series prop before the first game started at -313 odds, lots of juice but i see them win this thing 4-1 or 4-0
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#11
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:17:53 AM
I wanna think that but i believe Mia will be all over Melo. Knicks have to run and shoot tomorrow to win. Mia may under estimate the Knicks tomorrow and take a lot of jump shots. If they don't fall it can hurt em but if they take it to the paint, this one should be over early.
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#12
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:22:03 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by UPNTHAPORT]

Don't Over Think this one.

I wouldn't worry about J.R Smith as Much as I would Melo...

Look for some Melo Props tommorrow, he should get the Bulk of the Shots...

No props for me. I go through the locals. When u bet online is it confidential. Gambling's not legal in Mass yet. Someone told me they'll send you a check in the mail regardless but i don't know.

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#13
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:22:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lefty1981:

NYK is a much better team without Amare....

NYK is a much better team at home....

THATS WHY!




Well, that and the fact they were only -10 at home. -5 on the road is super inflated...
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#14
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:22:30 AM
Knicks will get all the calls from the refs.

Heat will get in early foul trouble.

Heat will have to play a perfect game to win Game 3.

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#15
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:34:11 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by pj702]

what do you know about basketball? they were - 9 -10 ish at home, what you expect them to be on the road? this number is right where it should be for game 3

-6 or -7. I expect this to go up before gametime and my local bookie will have this at -6 at least. If u bet online u may have a different view but don't question what i know about ball. I'll pay for your flight for a one on one game. How much u got on it?

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#16
Posted: 5/3/2012 1:32:58 AM
I also agree this is already inflated and should be Miami -2 or so Miami were only 18-15 on the road for 54% during the season! Now they are -5 favs against this half descent playoff team
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#17
Posted: 5/3/2012 1:40:16 AM
If Shump didnt go down, I would be all over NYK +5.

I'll have to think about this one....

But I do expect NY to win one of these 2 and Game 3 is the most likely.
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#18
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:04:58 AM
Don't think too much because Knicks may get broomed and take an early vacation.  Heat want to take them out early so they can cakewalk through the east.  Who can stop them now that the Bulls are dead?  Maybe Pacers?  Celts, too old.  Heat felt the disappointment losing to Dallas in the Finals.  No disappointments this year.  Oh wait, the Spurs!
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#19
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:11:08 AM
NYK is a much better team without Amare....
NYK is a much better team at home.... - Lefty1981
Agree 100% Melo seems to play alot better and their offense seems to flow better as well.
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#20
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:16:30 AM
Not this sounds about right to me. Dont teams down 2 zip usually win game 3 at home? I dont know the number but I bet the % is very high. If this was not the heat they were playing it would be even lower!
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#21
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:20:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sniper777:

Not this sounds about right to me. Dont teams down 2 zip usually win game 3 at home? I dont know the number but I bet the % is very high. If this was not the heat they were playing it would be even lower!

this is true....
Or, the corrupt officials will rig the games so they will have every opportunity to win the game. (if you believe NBA games are fixed ) David Stern and the refs can only do so much, but if the ball doesn't go in....

Miami will have to play a perfect game just to get a W, in my opinion. And even if they do, the Knicks may still cover.
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#22
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:27:38 AM

Heat win by 7.
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#23
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:19:24 AM
I don't see the Knicks making this a game. I know the fouls will be more in their favor, but Miami is more agressive @ getting to the basket so FT should even out. Carmelo is playing the 4 tommorow, so NY will be going small, probably starting JR smith, because Novak can't guard Lebron or wade, though JR can't guard them either. Their Rotation is going to be F****ed, and so many mismatches will  be crated. Wade will have easy penetration/post and Carmelo will have to guard Bosh and score 30+....
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#24
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:45:17 AM
i live in ny , and a die hard knick fan, but dont see how knicks can keep it close
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#25
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:33:54 AM
im lovin knicks here too
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