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Author:	[NBA Betting] Topic: Why is MIA only giving -5?
followmylead	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com \|
Banned Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 1554 Location: Massachusetts	#1 Posted: 5/2/2012 11:58:59 PM J.R. Smith scares me. I'm thinking NY will go small and chuck up a whole lotta 3's. Will Miami cover? This line doesn't seem right.
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FlamingoBarnes	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Oct 2011 Posts: 1011 Location:	#2 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:00:57 AM I expect their to be a lot of FTs for NY tomorrow night. Take the Carmelo points prop if it is under 28. If he is shooting halfway decent he will take it. I still don't see how Miami loses though unless a few of New York's role players are on fire.
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linewatcher	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Veteran Joined: Mar 2004 Posts: 4584 Location: United States	#3 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:01:55 AM It is actually. There's a 6 to 6.5 pt swing from home court to home court. The real line should actually be Mia -3 on the road.
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pepsi562	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2012 Posts: 366 Location:	#4 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:04:36 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by linewatcher: It is actually. There's a 6 to 6.5 pt swing from home court to home court. The real line should actually be Mia -3 on the road. guess mia is giving too much, .5 is sometimes the difference between losing and winning, 2 points is huge.
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followmylead	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com \|
Banned Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 1554 Location: Massachusetts	#5 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:06:41 AM Weren't the Knicks playing good at the end of the season without Amare and Lin anyway?
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UPNTHAPORT	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Veteran Joined: Mar 2012 Posts: 1346 Location: Louisiana	#6 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:07:37 AM Don't Over Think this one. I wouldn't worry about J.R Smith as Much as I would Melo... Look for some Melo Props tommorrow, he should get the Bulk of the Shots...
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MrBogey	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Aug 2011 Posts: 2901 Location: Florida	#7 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:12:31 AM Shumpert and Amare are out= the difference! Guys this is not rocket science .
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Lefty1981	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Feb 2012 Posts: 2060 Location:	#8 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:14:45 AM NYK is a much better team without Amare.... NYK is a much better team at home.... THATS WHY!
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pj702	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: May 2009 Posts: 1040 Location:	#9 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:15:53 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by followmylead: J.R. Smith scares me. I'm thinking NY will go small and chuck up a whole lotta 3's. Will Miami cover? This line doesn't seem right. what do you know about basketball? they were - 9 -10 ish at home, what you expect them to be on the road? this number is right where it should be for game 3
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pj702	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: May 2009 Posts: 1040 Location:	#10 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:16:54 AM i loaded up on miami -1.5 games to win series prop before the first game started at -313 odds, lots of juice but i see them win this thing 4-1 or 4-0
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followmylead	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com \|
Banned Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 1554 Location: Massachusetts	#11 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:17:53 AM I wanna think that but i believe Mia will be all over Melo. Knicks have to run and shoot tomorrow to win. Mia may under estimate the Knicks tomorrow and take a lot of jump shots. If they don't fall it can hurt em but if they take it to the paint, this one should be over early.
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followmylead	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com \|
Banned Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 1554 Location: Massachusetts	#12 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:22:03 AM [Quote: Originally Posted by UPNTHAPORT] Don't Over Think this one. I wouldn't worry about J.R Smith as Much as I would Melo... Look for some Melo Props tommorrow, he should get the Bulk of the Shots... No props for me. I go through the locals. When u bet online is it confidential. Gambling's not legal in Mass yet. Someone told me they'll send you a check in the mail regardless but i don't know.
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P4P	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Nov 2006 Posts: 8811 Location: British Columbia	#13 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:22:19 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Lefty1981: NYK is a much better team without Amare.... NYK is a much better team at home.... THATS WHY! Well, that and the fact they were only -10 at home. -5 on the road is super inflated...
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Lefty1981	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Feb 2012 Posts: 2060 Location:	#14 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:22:30 AM Knicks will get all the calls from the refs. Heat will get in early foul trouble. Heat will have to play a perfect game to win Game 3.
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followmylead	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com \|
Banned Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 1554 Location: Massachusetts	#15 Posted: 5/3/2012 12:34:11 AM [Quote: Originally Posted by pj702] what do you know about basketball? they were - 9 -10 ish at home, what you expect them to be on the road? this number is right where it should be for game 3 -6 or -7. I expect this to go up before gametime and my local bookie will have this at -6 at least. If u bet online u may have a different view but don't question what i know about ball. I'll pay for your flight for a one on one game. How much u got on it?
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Bet_The_House	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Oct 2011 Posts: 1752 Location: Australia	#16 Posted: 5/3/2012 1:32:58 AM I also agree this is already inflated and should be Miami -2 or so Miami were only 18-15 on the road for 54% during the season! Now they are -5 favs against this half descent playoff team
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Lefty1981	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Feb 2012 Posts: 2060 Location:	#17 Posted: 5/3/2012 1:40:16 AM If Shump didnt go down, I would be all over NYK +5. I'll have to think about this one.... But I do expect NY to win one of these 2 and Game 3 is the most likely.
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ShadowWarrior	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Nov 2002 Posts: 6344 Location: Hawaii	#18 Posted: 5/3/2012 2:04:58 AM Don't think too much because Knicks may get broomed and take an early vacation. Heat want to take them out early so they can cakewalk through the east. Who can stop them now that the Bulls are dead? Maybe Pacers? Celts, too old. Heat felt the disappointment losing to Dallas in the Finals. No disappointments this year. Oh wait, the Spurs!
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Gotti8	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jan 2012 Posts: 36 Location:	#19 Posted: 5/3/2012 2:11:08 AM NYK is a much better team without Amare.... NYK is a much better team at home.... - Lefty1981 Agree 100% Melo seems to play alot better and their offense seems to flow better as well.
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sniper777	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Feb 2010 Posts: 878 Location:	#20 Posted: 5/3/2012 2:16:30 AM Not this sounds about right to me. Dont teams down 2 zip usually win game 3 at home? I dont know the number but I bet the % is very high. If this was not the heat they were playing it would be even lower!
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Lefty1981	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Feb 2012 Posts: 2060 Location:	#21 Posted: 5/3/2012 2:20:45 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by sniper777: Not this sounds about right to me. Dont teams down 2 zip usually win game 3 at home? I dont know the number but I bet the % is very high. If this was not the heat they were playing it would be even lower! this is true.... Or, the corrupt officials will rig the games so they will have every opportunity to win the game. (if you believe NBA games are fixed ) David Stern and the refs can only do so much, but if the ball doesn't go in.... Miami will have to play a perfect game just to get a W, in my opinion. And even if they do, the Knicks may still cover.
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CheckMate22	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2009 Posts: 424 Location: Nevada	#22 Posted: 5/3/2012 2:27:38 AM Heat win by 7.
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Degen55	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Nov 2011 Posts: 577 Location:	#23 Posted: 5/3/2012 3:19:24 AM I don't see the Knicks making this a game. I know the fouls will be more in their favor, but Miami is more agressive @ getting to the basket so FT should even out. Carmelo is playing the 4 tommorow, so NY will be going small, probably starting JR smith, because Novak can't guard Lebron or wade, though JR can't guard them either. Their Rotation is going to be F****ed, and so many mismatches will be crated. Wade will have easy penetration/post and Carmelo will have to guard Bosh and score 30+....
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birdman11	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: betED.com \|
Rookie Joined: May 2009 Posts: 868 Location: New York	#24 Posted: 5/3/2012 3:45:17 AM i live in ny , and a die hard knick fan, but dont see how knicks can keep it close
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donix	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Feb 2010 Posts: 828 Location: Philippines	#25 Posted: 5/3/2012 4:33:54 AM im lovin knicks here too
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