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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA Tuesday 5.1.2012
SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
SettleDownSpaz
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#1
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:24:12 PM

2012 Playoffs : 9-5-2 +40.16 units

I had some concentrated exposure with the Knicks last night and somehow managed to walk away only down 2 units with two pushes.  Picked up some profit playing the Mavs and Under in the 3rd quarter last night..

Philadelphia 76ers +7 (10 units to win 9.52)

Philadelphia 76ers +240 (4 units to win 9.6)

Philadelphia / Chicago UNDER 176 (10 units to win 9.52)

Effectively, all correalated and I'm basically backing how I'm seeing things unfold tonight.  Highly possible I'm way off and the above shaves off 24 units from my stack. I'll have some thoughts on this game in a bit..

 

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alecboyh
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#2
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:59:38 PM
 Wow i was thinking Chicago ... Agree on the under ... waiting for your thougts on the game ... GL!
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#3
Posted: 5/1/2012 1:17:42 PM

We all can agree that the Bulls are a good team without DRose and they certainly are still the favorite to win this series.  Aside from the Heat, I don't think there is a worse EC team worse for the Bulls to be transtitioning back to life without their MVP.  Philadelphia is an exceptional defensive team, who looked lost in Game 1, ultimately yielding 103 points in the loss.  This season following a game where they have allowed 100+ points, the Sixers are 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS in the following game.  In these games, the Sixers are holding opponents to an average score of 85 points.  In only one of the games has an opponent exceeded more than 88 points.  Despite being on the road, I think the defensive intensity will be high for the visiting Sixers.  And they luck out because lost is probably the one guy who can individually break down his defensive assignment.

How good are the Bulls without Rose?  This season, Chicago is 17-9 SU in games without Rose, but only 13-13 ATS.  Against non-playoff teams, they are 10-4 and have beat opponents on average 97-85.  Against the playoff teams, the Bulls are 7-5 without Rose, but only outscoring their opponents on average 89-87.  So, basically they are real good at whipping up on the bottom feeders of the league, but they seem to struggle, especially on offense, against the league's top 16. 

How about the line? These teams have now played four times against each other this season, with only one of those games not including DRose.  Here are the home/home equivalent lines in the four games played this year. (Note, I used 6 points to adjust over to a home equivalent number)

2/1/12 (in Phi) Chicago -8 : lost 82-98

3/4/12 (in Phi) Chicago -9.5 : won 96-91

3/17/12 (in Chi) Chicago -3.5 : won 89-80 (No DRose)

4/28/12 (in Chi) Chicago -8.5 : won 103-91

Specifically I'm looking at the game before Rose missed and the games after.  The Bulls were 9.5 point favorites in a game with DRose where they won, but didn't cover.  He was hurt the next game, so the line dropped 6 points to account for him out.  The Bulls pulled out a victory and covered the shorter number.  Shift to Game 1 where Rose is back and the line jumps 5 points.  The Bulls win and cover convincingly.  Now Rose is out again and the line falls 3 points... 3 points?  During the regular season it dropped 6, but now only 3. And public seems to have moved this to a 2 point drop.  There were not other noteable players missing from the previous game.  What oddsmakers want us to see is that the Bulls were just fine when Rose was out when these two teams faced in the regular season.  And they were winning 89-80 and covering the short number.  Different setting for tonight's game and more at stake for sure.  I think the loss of Rose plays heavy on the Bulls tonight and the Sixers ramp up their defensive pressure.  And instead of catching 3.5 or even 4.5, I'm getting 7, which I'll gladly take.  Certainly could be Vegas trying to lure in Sixers money, but by all public accounts, the Bulls have beaten Philly before without DRose, so they should be able to do it again.

 

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#4
Posted: 5/1/2012 1:34:35 PM
3rd quarter in OKC/Mavs went over last night
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Posted: 5/1/2012 1:42:01 PM

alec - don't let me sway you.  Good to see you around

Nuero - you are correct, should have been more clear. I had Dallas +1 and the OKC team total under 24.5 in the third quarter

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#6
Posted: 5/1/2012 2:55:00 PM

Denver Nuggets +6 (10 units to win 9.52)

Denver Nuggets +200 (4 units to win 8)

Denver / Los Angeles OVER 201 (10 units to win 9.52)

The Lakers scored 64 point in the pain in Game 1, which is even more than it actually is considering their bigs only scored 32 points.  The blame here falls on the perimeter defense of the Nuggets.  Kobe is Kobe, but no reason for Lawson, Afflalo, Miller or Brewer to get beat into the lane by any other Laker guard. Lawson was a complete non-factor and as he goes so do the Nuggets somewhat.  Kobe has struggled this season vs the Nuggets before busting out in Game 1.  Much of that has to do with Afflalo, who is an excellent on the ball defender and should be more of a hassle for Kobe tonight.  Kobe generally not at his best vs. playoff teams and also hasn't had incredible sucess scoring 30+ in back to back games.  Denver hs a real shot to steal one in LA tonight, and while they also could get run out of the gym, I think Karl and team adjust accordingly.  Kobe struggles a bit and the Lakers look around waiting for him to get going. 

 

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#7
Posted: 5/1/2012 4:31:13 PM
I'm not offered 6 yet on the Nuggs.  If I am I might bite.  GL spaz
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#8
Posted: 5/1/2012 4:58:11 PM
Gl brotha, on the sixers under and nugs as well. 
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Posted: 5/1/2012 5:17:23 PM
Good stuff & good luck
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#10
Posted: 5/1/2012 5:27:33 PM
Best of Luck 
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#11
Posted: 5/1/2012 5:31:04 PM
I was at the game in Philly this yr...rose went off for a season high 35 I believe it was but at that point in season it was his season high for a game this yr but bulls barely covered..spread was 4.5
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#12
Posted: 5/1/2012 5:31:49 PM
Not 9.5
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#13
Posted: 5/1/2012 5:35:18 PM

thatsagoodone, coversboss, SportsFreak - thanks guys

theone - good to see you on these.  thanks buddy.

Frank - the 9.5 is a home equivalent, actual line was 3.5

 

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Posted: 5/1/2012 5:36:10 PM

I have open futures on Atlanta to win the series and it to go 7 games, so not sure which way I'm rooting tonight.  I might play the total, nothing on the side.

 

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Posted: 5/1/2012 5:41:50 PM
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Posted: 5/1/2012 5:43:40 PM
strict - thanks buddy
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#17
Posted: 5/1/2012 6:44:30 PM



  SPAZ OUT 


 

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Posted: 5/1/2012 7:01:47 PM
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Posted: 5/1/2012 7:18:17 PM
Like the Sixers play.
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iceman67
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#20
Posted: 5/1/2012 7:26:11 PM
I don't know about the O/U's but you're going to go 4-0 +36.64 units on your sides,,,,   love both of them and am on them also.   
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Posted: 5/1/2012 7:31:48 PM

I am surprise you are not the Celtics

GL SDS

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#22
Posted: 5/1/2012 7:36:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SettleDownSpaz:

Denver Nuggets +6 (10 units to win 9.52)

Denver Nuggets +200 (4 units to win 8)

Denver / Los Angeles OVER 201 (10 units to win 9.52)

The Lakers scored 64 point in the pain in Game 1, which is even more than it actually is considering their bigs only scored 32 points.  The blame here falls on the perimeter defense of the Nuggets.  Kobe is Kobe, but no reason for Lawson, Afflalo, Miller or Brewer to get beat into the lane by any other Laker guard. Lawson was a complete non-factor and as he goes so do the Nuggets somewhat.  Kobe has struggled this season vs the Nuggets before busting out in Game 1.  Much of that has to do with Afflalo, who is an excellent on the ball defender and should be more of a hassle for Kobe tonight.  Kobe generally not at his best vs. playoff teams and also hasn't had incredible sucess scoring 30+ in back to back games.  Denver hs a real shot to steal one in LA tonight, and while they also could get run out of the gym, I think Karl and team adjust accordingly.  Kobe struggles a bit and the Lakers look around waiting for him to get going. 

 


3-0 my friend.  I'm already on Denver, thinking about moneyline and over as well.  May add these to my card depending on how the early games are going.

Looks like I'll be sinking or swimming with you tonight because I'm sharing a lot of your sentiments.


Good luck.

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#23
Posted: 5/1/2012 7:40:09 PM
 Solid work Spaz.....


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Posted: 5/1/2012 9:33:26 PM

thanks fellas .. Stalking a in game bet on Celtics ML.  Just get the feeling Pierce will win Boston to a win. 

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Posted: 5/1/2012 9:39:02 PM

Boston Celtics +180 in game (6 units to win 10.8)

Down 66-64 9:37 to play

 

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