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nropp11 |
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#1 Posted: 4/2/2012 4:54:29 PM 12-6, +5.40
With college hoops coming to a close, emphasis turns to baseball and the pro game. I’m a situational guy in these sports. Not a line movement type of guy, personnel in or out, none of that jazz; strictly situational spots when they occur.
I think if one thing is certain about the Bulls, it’s the fact that they have a coach who is willing to put his neck on the line every single night and try to get a victory every single night no matter the circumstance. That’s what we have with Tom Thibodeau, and a big reason he’s had the best record in the NBA the last few years coupled with the fact that he was the first coach to 100 victories. The Bulls haven’t lost back-to-back games at all this year, and here is the results after a loss this year:
Win by 10 (Sacramento) (98) Win by 24 (Detroit) (83) Win by 21 (Phoenix) (97) Win by 7 (Milwaukee) (100) Win by 10 (Washington) (88) Win by 3 (New York) (102) Win by 6 (Sacramento) (115) Win by 11 (Atlanta) (79) Win by 14 (Utah) (97) Win by 9 (Philadelphia) (80) Win by 21 (Atlanta) (77)
Looks like they’ve been extremely good bouncing back after a loss. Not only from the standpoint of wins and losses, but from the standpoint of being able to defend well. The second # in parenthesis is the amount of points they’ve given up in those games. It’s probably no coincidence that all the point totals they’ve given up have come to high-paced teams (Milwaukee 5th in pace, Sacramento 1st in pace, New York 3rd in pace, Phoenix 9th in pace). Houston isn’t all that fast of a team and they’re in a really interesting spot here, tonight. Not only do they have the task of facing the Bulls off a loss, they also come in off a come from an OT defeat. That OT defeat happens to be their third OT game they’ve been a part of in the past week, and they also have two lookahead spots here as well. One, they have 3 days off after this game, and two, they go to the Lakers next whom they just beat a few weeks ago. I think it’s a flat spot for Houston, here. On a b2b spot on the road, they’ve poured in 93, 89, 90, 91, 96, 98, 107, and 81 points respectively. Nothing spectacular about those #’s, and the important thing to note is that only two of those instances they had faced a top 10 defense in the league (they scored 93 and 81 in those two games). Now add in the fact that four starters played more than three quarters last night into OT, + the back-to-back, + the fact that the Bulls defend well off a loss, + the fact that they have some time off after this one, + the fact that they get to go to the Lakers on Friday, I smell a rough night for the Rockets. As for the Bulls, I just can’t trust them at this point with the injuries. Coming off yesterday’s game, I think you see a nice bounce-back at least on the defensive side of things. Yesterday’s meeting was their worst offensive output in the paint all year, and I expect they look to get the ball in the paint a bit more tonight, which doesn’t eat up a ton of clock, but is valuable in this angle here by doing so. Korver got the start yesterday b/c of match-ups instead of Brewer who came off the bench to guard Harden, so one of the best on-ball defender’s for the Bulls is a tad bit fresher. Since the Heat game a few weeks back where the Bulls were dogged by 3 at home playing without Rose where they couldn’t miss a basket and Lucas went crazy, the offense has been far from impressive: 89, 89, 85, 94, 102 (scored 94 in regulation), 91, 98, 83, and 78. They also have a few days off here before they welcome Boston in on Thursday, so a mini-look ahead there. Last thing, these two teams aren’t all that familiar with one another, as they haven’t matched up since December 2010, so may see a bit of a feeling out process to begin this one. This game shouldn’t see too many possessions, and barring a big offensive output from the Bulls, this one should stay under the total.
3* Rockets/Bulls Under 186.5 |
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nropp11 |
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#2 Posted: 4/2/2012 4:54:44 PM Also playing another total as a spot play. Wizards have gone 11 straight to the under (I actually pushed yesterday on 191, but closing # was 192), so making this a spot play to go after any total that has a realistic shot of going over. I think this one does. First, these two teams played to a 237 point total back in late February, a game that reached 100 possessions (even in the first meeting this year, they hit 97 possessions). That was before Ellis joined the Bucks. Since he’s joined, they’ve scored 100+ in six of those nine games, and have upped their pace ranking to be in the top 5 of all the NBA. The offense has picked up, the defense has dropped. As for Washington, 11 straight to the under is pretty impressive, but if I had to circle a spot that they were to end the streak and go over the total, this is probably it. As I said, I did play the total to the over yesterday and pushed, but was actually hoping they would be flat and go nowhere near the total so I had some extra value today (and I didn’t miss out on ending the streak), and that’s probably not the case. If you look at the month of March, and especially this 11 to the under streak they’re currently on, the fastest two teams they played the entire month were Memphis and San Antonio. Those two teams play the 10th and 13th fastest in the game. Their last seven games have actually come against the bottom ten slowest teams in the league. So, I don’t think the under trait here is all that impressive, a ton of value missed out on, but don’t think that’s the case today. As I alluded to before, Milwaukee’s gotten faster. They’re currently the 5th fastest team in the league, and the offense has reaped the benefit of having Ellis in the lineup. I have a Washington team that picked up the pace finally against a Toronto team and put up 31 points in a fourth quarter that hit 59 points, so I should get some carry over to the style that this one will be played at. I also get two teams that don’t defend all that well. Prior to the middle of March where Washington played all of these snail teams, they’ve given up the following in back-to-back spots from a defensive standpoint:
100 (Boston) 78 (Chicago) (No Rose or Rip) 103 (Philly) 99 (Charlotte) 107 (LAC) 102 (Orlando) 107 (Dallas) 102 (Atlanta)
Interesting part there is those are some pretty alarming point totals they’ve given up, and they’ve come against teams ranked at or below 16th in the NBA in how fast they play. What’s also interesting to note is that only two teams listed in that group of games are top 10 in offensive efficiency (Bulls and Clippers), and the Bulls were without Rose. It’s a scary thought about what kind of points can be put up tonight. With the way that each team comes in, with a heavy emphasis on fast paced Washington not having to play in a slow setting combined with a Milwaukee offense that should be able to score early and often. Under streak should end tonight.
2* Wizards/Bucks Over 204.5
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King_Ram |
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#3 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:00:42 PM  |
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SportsFreak69 |
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#4 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:02:01 PM  |
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#5 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:04:34 PM  |
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#6 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:05:12 PM  enyoy see you on NBA forum
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childporfavor |
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#7 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:06:29 PM |
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dendogg55 |
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#8 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:06:38 PM |
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#9 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:08:01 PM |
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#10 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:10:15 PM |
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nropp11 |
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#11 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:11:52 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by childporfavor:
a lot of ppl taking Sac -3? what do you think about this play?
Don't see any value in a short-lined game that's going to be up and down as much as this one should be. Would probably point to Minnesota, but not playing them after a high-scoring ugly game last night.
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#12 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:12:46 PM cool thanks so much. i follow you on twitter so ill be looking out for your picks there!
Thanks man!!!! |
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#13 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:21:41 PM |
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#14 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:22:09 PM |
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mp5070 |
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#15 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:27:47 PM |
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glenndef62 |
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#16 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:37:52 PM Situational plays, IMO, are an excellent way to cap.
A lot of people put emphasis on injuries, but I don't know what weight to give them.
Base presents a ton of situational plays. GL........ |
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#17 Posted: 4/2/2012 5:57:19 PM |
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#18 Posted: 4/2/2012 6:02:18 PM
I have been playing Washington Unders recently, obviously with great success 10-0 to the under last 10.
The day I saw Chris Singleton (Florida State) inserted in the starting
line up, I knew the whole tempo of this team would change.
Singleton is a defensive beast with his length and rebounding. Also on
offense, he likes to get the ball in the high post or top of the key and
hold onto it a bit. Not sure why, he usually ends up passing it off
after a few minutes of contemplation (seems like). Singleton is a
clock killer on offense and a defensive presence. You guys need only
remember Florida State and their low scoring affairs to remember the
affect Singleton had.
I see no reason why Washington would go over tonight either, they would
have a tough time scoring 95 points against air at their pace now.
Milwaukee would be hard pressed to score 105+ against Washington.
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nropp11 |
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#19 Posted: 4/2/2012 6:05:06 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by nbafan88:
from a very notable capper
I have been playing Washington Unders recently, obviously with great success 10-0 to the under last 10.
The day I saw Chris Singleton (Florida State) inserted in the starting
line up, I knew the whole tempo of this team would change.
Singleton is a defensive beast with his length and rebounding. Also on
offense, he likes to get the ball in the high post or top of the key and
hold onto it a bit. Not sure why, he usually ends up passing it off
after a few minutes of contemplation (seems like). Singleton is a
clock killer on offense and a defensive presence. You guys need only
remember Florida State and their low scoring affairs to remember the
affect Singleton had.
I see no reason why Washington would go over tonight either, they would
have a tough time scoring 95 points against air at their pace now.
Milwaukee would be hard pressed to score 105+ against Washington.
Makes a bit of sense, but I think the slow style of play has more or less been indicative of the paces of their opponent (as I pointed out their last seven have come against bottom 10 pace teams and the entire month of March came against all teams in the bottom 17. Fastest team they played was Memphis I believe who was ranked 13th fastest in the league). |
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#20 Posted: 4/2/2012 6:11:07 PM
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#21 Posted: 4/2/2012 6:19:23 PM
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#22 Posted: 4/2/2012 6:23:13 PM |
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#23 Posted: 4/2/2012 6:25:29 PM |
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#24 Posted: 4/2/2012 6:33:02 PM |
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#25 Posted: 4/2/2012 6:37:44 PM
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