A lot of tight lines today - there are four games with a variance from my line by les than one point, and we are still waiting for four more lines to come out. I will not be betting Denver Nuggets games any longer - it's too much of a coin flip. Unless I get a variance of 15+, I'm staying away 100% of the time. I will still calculate these numbers for any of you who are still looking for that one. There's obviously something with that team that I'm not calculating into my lines. If anyone has suggestions, I'm open to hearing them!
I am interested to see what some of these lines come out at - I think that Chicago/Atlanta will come out around 176 or so, which may make that a small play on this system. Otherwise, I expect the remaining lines to come out a little tight. Any and all input is appreciated; I'll be here throughout the day.
A lot of tight lines today - there are four games with a variance from my line by les than one point, and we are still waiting for four more lines to come out. I will not be betting Denver Nuggets games any longer - it's too much of a coin flip. Unless I get a variance of 15+, I'm staying away 100% of the time. I will still calculate these numbers for any of you who are still looking for that one. There's obviously something with that team that I'm not calculating into my lines. If anyone has suggestions, I'm open to hearing them!
I am interested to see what some of these lines come out at - I think that Chicago/Atlanta will come out around 176 or so, which may make that a small play on this system. Otherwise, I expect the remaining lines to come out a little tight. Any and all input is appreciated; I'll be here throughout the day.
That's kind of what I'm thinking; it seems like it has been that way the past couple of days. I keep thinking there's another element I should add to this so that I can get more plays out of it - but at the same time, I don't want to push and it has been successful just the way that it is to this point. I'm hoping to get one solid play out of the four remaining games without posted totals.
0
Quote Originally Posted by itjunkie:
too close on all..
That's kind of what I'm thinking; it seems like it has been that way the past couple of days. I keep thinking there's another element I should add to this so that I can get more plays out of it - but at the same time, I don't want to push and it has been successful just the way that it is to this point. I'm hoping to get one solid play out of the four remaining games without posted totals.
I liked the under on the Phoenix/Washington game when it came out at 200 last night already. Phoenix isn't the same high scoring run and game team that they used to be and Washington will have a quarter or two where the shoot 35-40%. Your lines confirm around 194.5, good enough for me.
0
I liked the under on the Phoenix/Washington game when it came out at 200 last night already. Phoenix isn't the same high scoring run and game team that they used to be and Washington will have a quarter or two where the shoot 35-40%. Your lines confirm around 194.5, good enough for me.
I liked the under on the Phoenix/Washington game when it came out at 200 last night already. Phoenix isn't the same high scoring run and game team that they used to be and Washington will have a quarter or two where the shoot 35-40%. Your lines confirm around 194.5, good enough for me.
I'm on the same page - I'm trying to keep consistant and not consider any games a "play" until my variance is 6.0 points or greater. When I stray from that, I hit from time to time, but also see days like yesterday (0-3) that completely negate any units I've made doing it. If I can get another half a point, I will be all over that one because you're exactly right with everything you said.
0
Quote Originally Posted by depy:
I liked the under on the Phoenix/Washington game when it came out at 200 last night already. Phoenix isn't the same high scoring run and game team that they used to be and Washington will have a quarter or two where the shoot 35-40%. Your lines confirm around 194.5, good enough for me.
I'm on the same page - I'm trying to keep consistant and not consider any games a "play" until my variance is 6.0 points or greater. When I stray from that, I hit from time to time, but also see days like yesterday (0-3) that completely negate any units I've made doing it. If I can get another half a point, I will be all over that one because you're exactly right with everything you said.
Thanks for the info. My book has Chicago/Atlanta at 182.0 and New York/New Jersey at 195, making both these games no-plays as they are each less than two points away from my estimated line.
0
Quote Originally Posted by bullmoose:
seeing 182.5 in chi/atl
Thanks for the info. My book has Chicago/Atlanta at 182.0 and New York/New Jersey at 195, making both these games no-plays as they are each less than two points away from my estimated line.
This line did exactly what I wanted to so I'm jumping on it now. I'm showing ithat 66% of the bets are on the UNDER, however it continues to move up. I'm not big into line movement vs. the percentages, but for those of you that are, there you go. As depy stated above, you can count on Washington going ice cold for at least a quarter, perhaps two. In all of the stats that I compare to create these lines, pretty much everything, from offense to defense, turnovers to eFG%, are all pretty consistant between the two teams, meaning that I don't see either of them doing much better or worse than they would on average. That being said, I'm seeing something similar to a 98-92 Phoenix victory in this one.
0
FINAL PLAYS:
Phoenix vs. Washington UNDER 202.5 (2 units)
This line did exactly what I wanted to so I'm jumping on it now. I'm showing ithat 66% of the bets are on the UNDER, however it continues to move up. I'm not big into line movement vs. the percentages, but for those of you that are, there you go. As depy stated above, you can count on Washington going ice cold for at least a quarter, perhaps two. In all of the stats that I compare to create these lines, pretty much everything, from offense to defense, turnovers to eFG%, are all pretty consistant between the two teams, meaning that I don't see either of them doing much better or worse than they would on average. That being said, I'm seeing something similar to a 98-92 Phoenix victory in this one.
Good Luck rlawson. I hit the under a little harder once it went up to 202. It would even be nicer if Nash sat out tonight being that Phoenix is playing back to backs. Thanks for putting your system out there!!
Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:
FINAL PLAYS:
Phoenix vs. Washington UNDER 202.5 (2 units)
This line did exactly what I wanted to so I'm jumping on it now. I'm showing ithat 66% of the bets are on the UNDER, however it continues to move up. I'm not big into line movement vs. the percentages, but for those of you that are, there you go. As depy stated above, you can count on Washington going ice cold for at least a quarter, perhaps two. In all of the stats that I compare to create these lines, pretty much everything, from offense to defense, turnovers to eFG%, are all pretty consistant between the two teams, meaning that I don't see either of them doing much better or worse than they would on average. That being said, I'm seeing something similar to a 98-92 Phoenix victory in this one.
0
Good Luck rlawson. I hit the under a little harder once it went up to 202. It would even be nicer if Nash sat out tonight being that Phoenix is playing back to backs. Thanks for putting your system out there!!
Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:
FINAL PLAYS:
Phoenix vs. Washington UNDER 202.5 (2 units)
This line did exactly what I wanted to so I'm jumping on it now. I'm showing ithat 66% of the bets are on the UNDER, however it continues to move up. I'm not big into line movement vs. the percentages, but for those of you that are, there you go. As depy stated above, you can count on Washington going ice cold for at least a quarter, perhaps two. In all of the stats that I compare to create these lines, pretty much everything, from offense to defense, turnovers to eFG%, are all pretty consistant between the two teams, meaning that I don't see either of them doing much better or worse than they would on average. That being said, I'm seeing something similar to a 98-92 Phoenix victory in this one.
I just can't pass this play up. If you look at my numbers above, you'll notice my total is just one point below the posted total, not showing much value. However, when I look at the numbers, this just seems like a no-brainer (which is always scary). You've got two average to below-average offenses (Chicago is ranked 20th in PPG at home, Atlanta is 18th in PPG on the road) and two relatively elite defenses (Chicago is ranked 3rd in PPG allowed at home, Atlanta is 1st in PPG allowed on the road). But, further than just PPG scored and allowed, there are two other statistical match-ups that intrigue me.
Let me first start with the PPG averages for both teams:
Chicago: 95.5 PPG scored; 84.8 PPG allowed
Atlanta: 91.6 PPG scored; 90.1 PPG allowed
Looking just at those, we see the averages point right at the posted total or a little below (favoring the under). Two other match-ups point me in the direction of the under: the eFG% and Assist/TO ratios of each team on both sides.
Comparing what the Bulls shoot for an eFG% at home to what Atlanta gives up on the road is a wash; they are nearly identical so I don't consider any additional points given or taken from the teams projected total. However, Chicago allows an eFG% of 43.8 at home, which is five points lower than what Atlanta averages on the road; this is a large statistical variance and should definitely be considered into an average total of both teams' PPG.
The other is the Assist/TO ratio of both teams; the defenses are largely superior to the other's offense. Chicago's home ratio on offense is 1.993; Atlanta allows just 1.382 on the road. Atlanta, in turn, average 1.557 on the road while Chicago allows just 1.278. What this says to me is that there will be lots of wasted possessions on both sides, possessions that would normally result in points in other games, but not today.
0
FINAL PLAYS:
Phoenix vs. Washington UNDER 202.5 (2 units)
Chicago vs. Atlanta UNDER 181.5 (1 unit)
I just can't pass this play up. If you look at my numbers above, you'll notice my total is just one point below the posted total, not showing much value. However, when I look at the numbers, this just seems like a no-brainer (which is always scary). You've got two average to below-average offenses (Chicago is ranked 20th in PPG at home, Atlanta is 18th in PPG on the road) and two relatively elite defenses (Chicago is ranked 3rd in PPG allowed at home, Atlanta is 1st in PPG allowed on the road). But, further than just PPG scored and allowed, there are two other statistical match-ups that intrigue me.
Let me first start with the PPG averages for both teams:
Chicago: 95.5 PPG scored; 84.8 PPG allowed
Atlanta: 91.6 PPG scored; 90.1 PPG allowed
Looking just at those, we see the averages point right at the posted total or a little below (favoring the under). Two other match-ups point me in the direction of the under: the eFG% and Assist/TO ratios of each team on both sides.
Comparing what the Bulls shoot for an eFG% at home to what Atlanta gives up on the road is a wash; they are nearly identical so I don't consider any additional points given or taken from the teams projected total. However, Chicago allows an eFG% of 43.8 at home, which is five points lower than what Atlanta averages on the road; this is a large statistical variance and should definitely be considered into an average total of both teams' PPG.
The other is the Assist/TO ratio of both teams; the defenses are largely superior to the other's offense. Chicago's home ratio on offense is 1.993; Atlanta allows just 1.382 on the road. Atlanta, in turn, average 1.557 on the road while Chicago allows just 1.278. What this says to me is that there will be lots of wasted possessions on both sides, possessions that would normally result in points in other games, but not today.
Will you still play Hawks-Bulls under if D Rose plays
This bet was made with the assumption that he WOULD play (the stats I've generated are based off of season long numbers). Whether he plays or not, I don't think will have a big impact on the total. Hear me out - when he doesn't play, he's got other guys that have stepped in and made the shots that he would normally be taking. When he is the line-up, the role players drop back into their normal spots and Rose takes the game over. Ultimately, the same shots are going in, but it's just the difference between one guy taking them or three. I hope that makes sense. Rose's precense gives them a more CONFIDENT feel on the court, but I don't know that the numbers are all that different (I have not had time to look into this).
0
Quote Originally Posted by shimmersun:
Will you still play Hawks-Bulls under if D Rose plays
This bet was made with the assumption that he WOULD play (the stats I've generated are based off of season long numbers). Whether he plays or not, I don't think will have a big impact on the total. Hear me out - when he doesn't play, he's got other guys that have stepped in and made the shots that he would normally be taking. When he is the line-up, the role players drop back into their normal spots and Rose takes the game over. Ultimately, the same shots are going in, but it's just the difference between one guy taking them or three. I hope that makes sense. Rose's precense gives them a more CONFIDENT feel on the court, but I don't know that the numbers are all that different (I have not had time to look into this).
mlesnet - I'm seeing a lot of people on the board on that, too. I just absolutely hate betting on the totals for Nuggets games. Minnesota, it appears to me, can get frustrated by a good defense very easily. However, Denver is not a good defense. They're awful. Even if Denver doesn't put up 100 tonight, that doesn't mean Minnesota won't put up 115-120. I don't trust Denver on either side of the ball. But, my stats are what they are; I won't be playing it but BOL to you if you do.
0
SportsFreak -
mlesnet - I'm seeing a lot of people on the board on that, too. I just absolutely hate betting on the totals for Nuggets games. Minnesota, it appears to me, can get frustrated by a good defense very easily. However, Denver is not a good defense. They're awful. Even if Denver doesn't put up 100 tonight, that doesn't mean Minnesota won't put up 115-120. I don't trust Denver on either side of the ball. But, my stats are what they are; I won't be playing it but BOL to you if you do.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
