Miami/Milwaukee total

Forum: NBA Betting
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Miami/Milwaukee total
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
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Posted: 2/13/2012 5:42:16 PM
The total is at 201 currently.

The Heat are 12-2 under this number, in regulation play, on the road this season. All 6 of their 2nd legs of B2B's have gone under this number(plus, they play tomorrow night in Indiana).
The Heat play defense when they feel like it. When they bring it, they are simply the best in the league. In my view, tonight is one of those nights when they will be in full effect. Revenge notwithstanding, they know they can shut these chumps down.

I don't buy into Milwaukee with Jennings as their leader. He will not repeat his 7-14 three point shooting from their last matchup. Gooden is aging and will not sustain his recent good play. Jackson has not done much this season. Can Delfino, Ilyasova, Dunleavy, Udrih and Mbah a Moute pick up the slack tonight? 

The answer?  No.

I am on the under 201. Large. 

Good luck with whatever you wager this evening.
dendogg55 PM dendogg55
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Posted: 2/13/2012 5:47:01 PM
Riceboi PM Riceboi
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Riceboi
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Posted: 2/13/2012 6:02:24 PM
under
Sinker2 PM Sinker2
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Posted: 2/13/2012 6:03:15 PM
lets have it finish at 200 so I get my middel
nepatriots_12 PM nepatriots_12
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Posted: 2/13/2012 6:37:02 PM
gl Wolf...like the Under and the Heat to cover also. Do you think Bucks under 97 TT is a better play or do you prefer the overall under?
Mad_Skillz123 PM Mad_Skillz123
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Posted: 2/13/2012 6:40:12 PM
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
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Posted: 2/13/2012 6:49:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

gl Wolf...like the Under and the Heat to cover also. Do you think Bucks under 97 TT is a better play or do you prefer the overall under?

I like the Bucks TT under 97, but I am only playing the overall under tonight. Good luck.

BookieKillerNag PM BookieKillerNag
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Posted: 2/13/2012 6:52:55 PM
The Heat are in the top five in the NBA in terms of pace of possesions at 95.6 a game.  They are number 1 in terms of efficiency at 106.5 points per 100 possesions.  Combined that with the fact that the Bucks are on a BIG over run and currently sit at 10-1 for the over at home.  Lastly, 80% of the bets are on the under but the line has gone from 198.5 to 201.  I'm on the over 201.  BOL whatever you do.  Just wanted to share some info.
PGram13 PM PGram13
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Posted: 2/13/2012 6:56:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

The total is at 201 currently.

The Heat are 12-2 under this number, in regulation play, on the road this season. All 6 of their 2nd legs of B2B's have gone under this number(plus, they play tomorrow night in Indiana).
The Heat play defense when they feel like it. When they bring it, they are simply the best in the league. In my view, tonight is one of those nights when they will be in full effect. Revenge notwithstanding, they know they can shut these chumps down.

I don't buy into Milwaukee with Jennings as their leader. He will not repeat his 7-14 three point shooting from their last matchup. Gooden is aging and will not sustain his recent good play. Jackson has not done much this season. Can Delfino, Ilyasova, Dunleavy, Udrih and Mbah a Moute pick up the slack tonight? 

The answer?  No.

I am on the under 201. Large. 

Good luck with whatever you wager this evening.
Im on that play, loved the short synopsys!  BOL Friend!  
mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
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Posted: 2/13/2012 7:07:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BookieKillerNag:

The Heat are in the top five in the NBA in terms of pace of possesions at 95.6 a game.  They are number 1 in terms of efficiency at 106.5 points per 100 possesions.  Combined that with the fact that the Bucks are on a BIG over run and currently sit at 10-1 for the over at home.  Lastly, 80% of the bets are on the under but the line has gone from 198.5 to 201.  I'm on the over 201.  BOL whatever you do.  Just wanted to share some info.

The 201 number is slightly elevated, imo. Their last matchup went off at 197.5. I don't think anything has changed, as far as personnel, to warrant a 3.5 increase in points. Plus the Bucks are 4-8 over this total at home. 10-1 ATS is a nice stat, but only 2 out of their 12 home games have gone off at totals above 193.

I don't believe that 80% of bettors are on the under either. Wherever those numbers are emanating from are likely unrepresentative or inaccurate.

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