2/7 NBA Plays

Weird Monday night in the league, happy to be on the lucky side of 2 out of 3. Won't be interested in the Hornets for a while.

95-76-3

16-28 ml dogs

+13.53 units ytd

Heat 1st half -7.5 for 2 units, Heat -12.5 for 2 units.

 The bottom line about the Heat is that they can beat almost every team in the NBA by 20 (except for maybe 4 or 5 good squads) when they're motivated. When betting on them, you just have to pick and choose your spots, anticipating their incentive to perform is even more crucial than with most other teams. They've been sluggish of late losing some ugly games, and sleepwalking for 46 minutes for a late win against the Raptors in Miami is about as ugly as those losses too. I know they play Orlando tomorrow and they've already beaten Cleveland this year, so does the book. I just expect this team to be motivated to put forth a strong effort tonight, and when the Heat put forth strong effort this Cleveland team has no chance whatsoever at staying with 13. This isn't much of a statement game for the Heat as it is a get well game. They've been just plodding around lately, and I think tonight is a rare game in which they commit to playing a complete 48 minutes.

Warriors +125 ml risking 2 units. Oklahoma City is the least disciplined elite basketball team you'll ever watch. That combined with the fact that they can't possibly have any motivation whatsoever tonight should lead to an easy Warriors w. OT, extended minutes for all their big guys, bigtime emotional exhausting win to avenge their only home loss. Now they have to go on the very next night to play a rested, decent team that they beat the hell out of less than two weeks ago. Warriors beat good teams at home for whatever reason, I'm not going to question it especially not with this line. The line--you mean to tell me that OKC can't be greater than a 1 possession favorite here? Would you be absolutely floored to see OKC laying 6.5 in this game? Of course not, that's the point. This is a game the Warriors should win much more often than they lose.

Will add more over the course of the day.

Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:



What motivation do the Heat have tonight?  They go to Orlando tomorrow with more motivation IMO.  GL

It's a gut feel that I had and the line opening identically to their last matchup that Miami only won by 7 confirmed it for me. It's not that the Heat only gear up for good opponents, it's that they become emotionally invested in games against mediocre competition only when they've thrown up a bunch of recent stinkers. I just think they've played down to their competition for a while now and want to set the tone before heading into Orlando. But like I said, it's a gut feel combined with the line confirming my lean, by no means is it lunacy to take the points here. If I'm wrong about the Heat's motivation this'll be a game just like the last one.

Love is too influential a player to bet on this game.  Weird spread, would not feel too comfortable laying 7 with the wolves and no Love. 

GL with heat

Love the card man.  Same plays here.  BOL.